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Asia better off if Abe can really say sorry

There are many reasons to admire modern-day Japan. There are also more than a few reasons to wish well for the country’s incumbent premier, Mr Shinzo Abe. His efforts to resuscitate its economy with Abenomics has not yet hit the target, but the country is more confident today than it has been for too long.

Mr Abe’s ambition to increase Japan’s role abroad must be matched by efforts to increase trust and acceptance by other Asians. Photo: Kyodo News

Mr Abe’s ambition to increase Japan’s role abroad must be matched by efforts to increase trust and acceptance by other Asians. Photo: Kyodo News

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There are many reasons to admire modern-day Japan. There are also more than a few reasons to wish well for the country’s incumbent premier, Mr Shinzo Abe. His efforts to resuscitate its economy with Abenomics has not yet hit the target, but the country is more confident today than it has been for too long.

Last week, Mr Abe made history by being the first Japanese leader to address a special joint session of the United States Congress. In his speech, he expressed deep remorse for World War II and touched on issues sensitive to Americans, including Pearl Harbor, while emphasising his commitment, going forward, to strengthening the two countries’ alliance.

His emphasis on the common values shared by the two countries — “the rule of law, democracy, and freedom” — went down well with most Americans.

The same cannot be said for the reception his speech received in Asia. While Mr Abe expressed “deep remorse”, China and South Korea have quickly and strongly criticised the refusal to acknowledge and directly apologise for the atrocities committed by the Japanese during WWII.

In truth, what was said by Mr Abe was better than initially feared. Not long before his visit to the US, Mr Abe sent a ritual offering to the controversial Yasukuni shrine, while over 100 members of the Diet also visited in person. There have been bouts of “Abenesia” that have downplayed Japan’s WWII atrocities, raising concerns that such conservative, right wing thinking reflects the current leaning of the Abe administration.

There was even some talk that Mr Abe would retreat from the 1995 apology offered by then Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama. In this context, there is relief that Mr Abe did not do so. But just maintaining that position may not be enough.

NOT HAVING TO CHOOSE BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN

This year will witness many WWII anniversaries — including a highly significant one marked by Beijing, with a military parade where world leaders have been invited to attend. Others will put forward their own versions of history, to which Japan will need to respond.

The need is also driven by Mr Abe’s ambitions to build up Japan’s political and security role — also emphasised in his US speech. Tokyo can try to dress this up as self-defence and support for America. But many still see a build-up that is aimed at heading off China’s growing strength.

Those in South-east Asia will be watching developments particularly closely. Despite Japan occupying many parts of the region during WWII, there has been a pragmatic reticence in South-east Asia since the Fukuda Doctrine of the late 1970s unleashed a wave of investments and helped generate growth and jobs.

Singapore, for instance, serves as headquarters for major Japanese corporations and has a bilateral economic partnership agreement with Japan. Singapore also warmly welcomed Mr Abe on several occasions, including most recently the state funeral of our founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.

This should not be taken for granted. South-east Asians will have to watch that Mr Abe’s expanding view of Japan’s role in security does not add to the tensions.

Tokyo and Beijing remain at loggerheads over territorial claims in the East China Sea. Mr Abe and President Xi Jinping have had only limited contact at the sidelines of larger, multilateral meetings. Moreover, Mr Abe has pledged support to the Philippines and Vietnam over their conflicting maritime claims with China.

When Tokyo pushes further into the region, points of contact and potential conflict with Beijing will multiple and broaden. Those with their own differences with Beijing may welcome this, but others looking at Asia’s overall stability will watch with concern. Even if no military conflict erupts, the underlying risk is that Beijing and Tokyo will seek to pull ASEAN member countries into different orbits, and this would divide the group.

Competition is already evident in the economic sphere.

Once China became Asia’s largest economy, many were looking past Japan, reckoning that its ageing demography would see it fall further behind.

But the introduction of Abenomics has reminded Asians that Japan can still lend support with aid and trade. Major Japanese corporations are also resurgent investors, offering a strong combination of know-how, technology and finance.

This economic engagement has strategic dimensions, as Mr Abe reminded his American hosts in pushing for a completion of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership.

China, despite it own challenges, has stepped up its game too. President Xi’s One Belt, One Road proposal to rejuvenate ancient trade routes and open up markets in Asia and beyond is backed up with pledges worth billions through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Others in Asia would rather not have to choose between China and Japan. But a modus vivendi has yet to be found to accommodate both a rising China and a resurgent Japan. The current “Abenesia” is, as such, not only a question about the past but also about the region’s future.

Those who wish Japan well — and I count myself among them — should not only wish for Abenomics to restart its economy. Mr Abe is likely to complete his full term and therefore be the longest-serving Japanese leader for many years. His ambition to increase the country’s role abroad must be matched by efforts to increase trust and acceptance by other Asians.

For this, an apology that is accepted by its neighbours is needed. If Japan, with renewed confidence under a strong and conservative leader such as Mr Abe, can really say sorry, the entire region would be better off.

And yes, if it helps, such a bold and much welcome step could be dubbed “Abpology”.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

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