Skip to main content

Advertisement

Advertisement

Japanese faced with little alternative to a leader losing momentum

TOKYO — It should have been a bad week for Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, and a better one for Ms Renho Murata, his chief opponent.

Japan's main opposition Democratic Party leader Renho speaks during a press conference at parliament in Tokyo Thursday, July 27, 2017. Photo: AP

Japan's main opposition Democratic Party leader Renho speaks during a press conference at parliament in Tokyo Thursday, July 27, 2017. Photo: AP

Follow TODAY on WhatsApp

TOKYO — It should have been a bad week for Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, and a better one for Ms Renho Murata, his chief opponent.

Over two days of testimony in parliament, Mr Abe contradicted himself about his memory of a cronyism scandal, even as a key figure in a different scandal linked to the prime minister was hauled in for questioning by prosecutors over fraud allegations. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada, the premier's protege, was also dogged by allegations that she helped to suppress the release of sensitive defence documents. 

Yet with her foe on the ropes, it was opposition leader Ms Murata who on Thursday (July 27) chose to resign. 

Ms Inada resigned on Friday (July 28).

Mr Abe’s approval rating has in just a few months plunged from a comfortable 60 per cent to 33 per cent — perilously close to levels that have done for previous Japanese prime ministers. But Ms Murata’s exit over the dismal poll ratings of her own Democratic party shows why most political observers expect Mr Abe to survive: There is simply no viable alternative.

The scandals that have badly hurt Mr Abe involve a pair of private school operators, with links to the prime minister, that won public favours. In both cases there are signs that officials acted, even without any direct order from the top, in order to please the boss. By themselves, however, the cases are not that terrible. Indeed, Mr Abe’s approval rating held up well for many months as they rumbled on.

What has damaged him is a poisonous air of arrogance as Mr Abe has shrugged off questions, ignored ministerial gaffes, and led his party to a resounding defeat in Tokyo city elections.

The public has never loved Mr Abe, whose air of entitlement has always rankled. But they have liked the stability he has brought since 2012. Whenever that stability wobbles, he is quickly vulnerable.

What keeps him safe is the lack of an alternative, whether within his party or without. Ms Murata — who goes by her first name, Renho — was its most recognisable figure in the DP. But riven by deep internal splits and with no coherent message, the party currently attracts polling support of just 6 per cent. The ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) can muster 31 per cent, despite Mr Abe’s troubles.

More threatening opponents lurk within the LDP. As Mr Abe has stumbled, factions within his own party have come back to life. However, only former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba is in open rebellion, and he lacks the support to bring down the prime minister. Neither of the other possible successors — Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida or Finance Minister Taro Aso — has much to gain from a coup.

That leaves Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, Japan’s most popular politician, whose start-up party inflicted a heavy defeat on the LDP in elections to the Tokyo city assembly earlier this month. For all Ms Koike’s popularity, however, she has no national parliamentary platform nor any easy means to gain one.

All this gives Mr Abe time to recover. An important test of Mr Abe’s strength will be whether he can keep Mr Kishida in the Cabinet in a reshuffle expected next week. He could also make a bid for public approval by bringing 36-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, the popular son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, into his Cabinet.

But the deeper problem for Mr Abe is that his government is losing momentum and purpose. It is a long time since he passed a meaningful economic reform. The more the prime minister triangulates to maintain support, the harder it is to do anything meaningful. His push to reform the pacifist constitution has failed to bring new energy to his government and reminded the public of his divisive conservative nationalism.

Yet what looks most probable is that challengers to his leadership will stay silent and Mr Abe will drift on until next year, when he must stand for another three-year term at the helm of the LDP. Like Mrs Theresa May in the United Kingdom, the prime minister’s authority may be leaching away. But to replace him is no simple matter. AGENCIES

Read more of the latest in

Advertisement

Advertisement

Stay in the know. Anytime. Anywhere.

Subscribe to get daily news updates, insights and must reads delivered straight to your inbox.

By clicking subscribe, I agree for my personal data to be used to send me TODAY newsletters, promotional offers and for research and analysis.