Experts divided over attack risk as Indonesian ISIS members return

SINGAPORE — At least 100 Indonesians known to have joined the Islamic State (ISIS) militant group in Syria and Iraq have returned home, the chief of the country’s intelligence agency has said, in comments that have heightened ­security concerns in the region.

Mr Sutiyoso, head of the State ­Intelligence Agency, or BIN, said his office would “monitor and approach” the returnees. He advised members of the public not to panic and urged them to “be the eyes and ears of BIN” by reporting any suspicious activities.

His announcement came just days after Mr Saud Usman Nasution, chief of Indonesia’s National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT), said 76 Indonesians had returned from Syria, while 52 died there and four acted as suicide bombers. 

He called for greater cooperation among South-east Asian countries to battle the rising threat of terrorism in the region, and to foil any attacks similar to the Nov 13 incidents in Paris, which ISIS has claimed.

ISIS already has a unit — Katibah Nusantara (KN) — made up of Indonesians and Malaysians fighting in parts of Syria. In the year since its formation in September 2014, recruitment has grown from 100 fighters to about 450. Observers have expressed concern some returnees could launch a Paris-style attack in Indonesia. 

“The 100 returnees will definitely pose a serious security threat ... This threat is also not confined to Indonesia but also to the rest of ASEAN, especially Malaysia and Singapore,”  Mr Jasminder Singh, a senior analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told TODAY.  

He added that the returnees “have not only been trained, armed, ideologically fortified and probably gained combat experience, but also may be well-funded and well-networked”.

However, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Legal Affairs, Luhut Panjaitan, last week assured Indonesians that the jihadist movement will not bring its terror campaign into the archipelago. “We understand that no country is immune to the ISIS movement, but until now Indonesia is not their target,” he told reporters. 

Ms Sidney Jones, director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, told TODAY that a major ISIS attack on Jakarta was unlikely, as ISIS is “completely preoccupied with retaining control of its territory in Syria and Iraq and expanding ­into Europe”. She also said that of the over-100 returnees reported by Mr Sutiyoso, “about 10” of them “were actually in Syria, underwent training, and came home”. 

“The number is still low enough for the police to monitor their activities,” she said, adding that a few among the 10 are under arrest. 

The rest of the 100 returnees were mainly deportees from Turkey and Malaysia, or were stopped at the airport in Jakarta. Nearly half of those numbers were women and children.

Mr Singh disagreed with Ms Jones’ message that the threat of a Paris-style attack is low. “All one needs for a terrorist attack is a lone wolf and that can be a game changer,” he said, naming KN as the organisation most likely to back terrorist operations in the region. 

“ISIS has openly stated that countries in ASEAN are a target, including Indonesia. With the rise of returnee numbers, this threat is all the more so ... Hence, vigilance is all the more critical in such times.” WITH AGENCIES