Legal woes put future of Cambodian opposition party at risk

PHNOM PENH — Cambodia’s main opposition party has struggled in vain for almost 20 years to gain traction against the ruling party. Now, the Cambodia National Rescue Party’s (CNRP)very future is in doubt due to the mounting legal problems of its leaders, which observers say appear politically motivated.

Party leader Sam Rainsy has been in self-imposed exile in France for nearly a year to avoid conviction over a defamation case. The government has banned him from returning home, on grounds that his presence may create chaos.

Last month, the Office of the Council of Ministers, which is in charge of aviation, and the country’s immigration police chief issued two separate letters informing officials at Cambodia’s three international airports to be on the lookout for Rainsy entering the country.

Undeterred, Rainsy pledged on Oct 19 to return home, although it is unclear when and how. He has also said he is ready to go to jail in exchange for the release of more than a dozen “political prisoners”.

Rainsy was forced to flee the country in 2009 prior to being sentenced in absentia to 11 years in prison. He was pardoned and allowed to return home before the 2013 election.

This time, however, Prime Minister Hun Sen has said he will not pardon him. As a result, it is not clear if he will be allowed to run for office even if he does return.

Meanwhile, his deputy, Kem Sokha, was convicted for refusing to answer a court summons for a case related to an alleged sex scandal. He is currently under de facto house arrest at the CNRP’s headquarters.

The cases against both men are widely seen by observers inside and outside Cambodia as being politically motivated.

“The official exile of Sam Rainsy is just the latest effort by Cambodia’s ruling party to win the next national election by ensuring they have no real competition,” said Mr Brad Adams, director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia Division.

Given the current political situation, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) is almost in full control of the political landscape. The CNRP is even banned from holding demonstrations or protests outside of its party headquarters.

CPP spokesman Sok Ey San told Kyodo News that it is risky for the CNRP to turn the individual cases of Rainsy and Sokha into issues of the party, and thereby link them to the country’s politics.

He warned that the party would be in “trouble” if it opts to stage mass demonstrations against the government, hinting at breaking up the party.

Unsurprisingly, the opposition party argues that next year’s communal elections and the general election in 2018 will not be held in a fair and transparent manner, as Cambodia’s political climate is almost entirely controlled by the CPP. “With the current system and practice, I foresee that the ruling Cambodian People’s Party will (get) the electoral result on its side by any and all means,” said Cambodian scholar So Munin Nhean.

Moreover, as Rainsy and Sokha are unlikely to be pardoned, the CNRP itself faces an uncertain future, since its popularity stems not from its platform but rather from the charisma of its two leaders, according to political observers.

In the last general election held in 2013, the CPP won 68 seats in the 123-seat legislature, down 22 from the 90 seats it won in the 2008 election, while the CNRP secured the remaining 55 seats, up from 26 seats, clear proof that people want change.

Mr Panh Ratha, a political observer, said the political situation in Cambodia now revolves around a “culture of hatred” and “culture of fear”. “I have also seen and heard speeches made by extremists in the CNRP and they are just full of hatred, and the CPP’s responses are full of threats,” he said.

He has little hope for the opposition, saying it will be “much weaker and will continue to dwindle until the CNRP finds a new star to lead or otherwise, inspire and convince the people that it has what it takes to lead”.

“The CNRP needs to quickly find a new star among its leadership that will shine and inspire confidence. If that can’t be done, then the CNRP needs to come up with a strategy to address concerns that the CNRP does not have what it takes to run the government and that it will be more corrupt when it is in power,” he added.

Sharing the view on Cambodia’s stature, Mr Chan Sophal, a Cambodian economist, expressed his view that Cambodia needs at least another 15 years with stability in order to get its economy on a sure footing.

“I’m convinced Cambodia needs to maintain stability for at least 15 years more so that it will pass the postwar fragile stage and the economy will be robust enough to make politics less destructive,” he said. “The post-Khmer Rouge generations will be different. The pre-Khmer Rouge generations seem not reconcilable. However, I hope stability does not lead to complacency.”

Mr Tooch Van, an overseas Cambodian academician living in the United States, said social media such as Facebook in addition to US government-funded services such as Radio Free Asia and Voice of America have played a critical role in keeping the CNRP alive. KYODO NEWS