Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi: Falling star or beacon of hope?

For nearly 30 years, Aung San Suu Kyi starred as arguably the world’s most prominent and revered political prisoner, a courageous champion of human rights and democracy in her military-ruled nation.

As she completes her first 100 days in power, the Nobel Prize laureate’s halo has all but vaporised on the global stage: Ms Suu Kyi is being assailed for ignoring the plight of the oppressed Rohingya Muslims, failing to stop atrocities against other ethnic minorities, and abetting moves to erase from collective memory the bloody history of the generals she replaced.

Some have even labelled her a “democratic dictator”, an increasingly aloof one-person show who surrounds herself with close friends and loyalists without nurturing a vitally needed new generation of leaders. Gone are the days when the elegant hostess would charm visitors over informal teas and reduce hard-bitten reporters to voicing soft-ball questions.

Even her supporters find it hard to cite concrete achievements of her government during the 100-day period, which ends this week, except for the freeing of most, but not all, political prisoners and initial efforts to stop rampant land grabs.

However, to the country’s Burman majority, The Lady, as the charismatic 71-year-old is affectionately known, remains a beacon of hope, one who will eventually surmount an array of troubles that would buckle the best of leaders — from the world’s longest-running insurgencies to abysmal healthcare and China’s rampant exploitation — while somehow breaking the still-powerful grip of the military.

“We should give her 1,000, not 100, days, given the legacy of a half century of military oppression. People are still patient, at least the majority of Burmans. But of course, for the ethnics it is different,” said Mr Ye Naing Moe, a prominent journalist and educator.

In an interview with AP, Information Minister Pe Myint cited the government’s main achievement to date as progress towards a two-fold “national reconciliation” — between civilians and the military, the majority Burman people and the ethnic minorities, which make up about 40 per cent of the population.

“I believe we are moving in a positive direction,” he said. “The main aim is to build a democratic federal union.”

But criticism from foreign quarters has been withering, focused on Ms Suu Kyi’s refusal to act on the Rohingya Muslims, who were driven into squalid camps amid waves of killings in 2012, and continue to flee on perilous sea voyages from a country that denies them citizenship despite historic proof of centuries-long residence.

Meanwhile, the generals continue to wage war against several ethnic groups, which rose up against the central government following Myanmar’s independence from Britain in 1948.

Ms Suu Kyi has countered that she needs “space” to sort out such problems as the Rohingya, and maintains she has always stood for human rights and the rule of law. The question of manoeuvering space seems to be key to her power, or lack thereof.

Despite her party’s sweeping victory in last November’s election, a 2008 Constitution guarantees the military 25 per cent of parliamentary seats, control of three key security ministries and a constitutional veto. The armed forces have also cornered large chunks of the economy.

“People were expecting miracles (after Ms Suu Kyi’s victory). But first of all it is important to remember that this is a government with very limited power,” said Mr Bertil Lintner, an author of several books on Myanmar. “The government has hobbled along and been blamed for actions which are beyond its control.”

Some observers say Ms Suu Kyi, descending from the high moral ground of a political prisoner, has simply become a pragmatic politician, one who fears that pushing the military too far on human rights and other contentious issues could stop her in her tracks — if not spark a military coup — and never make her laudable end-game possible.

She has not taken up the cause of the Muslims, goes this line of argument, because this would alienate a key segment of her electorate, the Burman Buddhists, among whom a virulent anti-Islamic movement has been growing. In another upsurge of violence, Buddhist mobs recently burned down a mosque and attacked Muslims in several areas of the country.

A less charitable view says that given her massive popular mandate and international backing, Ms Suu Kyi has enough political space in which she could afford to alienate radical anti-Muslims and the generals, who do not appear keen for any breaks with her government.

“She is so different from what she was before. People are really questioning who she really is now,” said Mr Tun Kyi, once an ardent supporter who was imprisoned for 10 years following the 1988 uprising against the military which propelled Ms Suu Kyi to prominence.

The answer for many ethnics and Muslims such as Mr Tun Kyi is that while trying to resolve internal conflicts, at heart Ms Suu Kyi views Myanmar as a Burman Buddhist country and will put Burman interests first. And despite her nearly 15 years under house arrest at the hands of the military regime, she retains an abiding fondness for the army — something she herself has acknowledged, noting that her father, independence hero General Aung San, founded the institution.

Some also question the leadership mantle she has assumed.

“She only wants to give orders. She is not interested in listening to those who have opinions other than her own. She has equated her own destiny to the destiny of the country,” said Mr Tun Kyi, who works with the Former Political Prisoners Society.

Barred by the Constitution from serving as head of state, Ms Suu Kyi said she would “be above the President” and took on the newly created post of State Counsellor. She also serves as Foreign Minister and Minister of the President’s Office, and heads the National League for Democracy party. President Htin Kyaw is a close friend and her personal physician, Dr Tin Myo Win, acts as the inexperienced negotiator with ethnic groups.

“It has got to be tempting for a woman with a huge to-do list to accumulate power in her own hands, to ignore the niceties of consultation and drive-through solutions: That would be a mistake in a brittle young democracy like Myanmar,” said Mr Tim Johnston, Asia programme director of the think-tank International Crisis Group.

Her to-do list seems endless, and it remains unclear how some of the challenges will be dealt with, since the government has yet to issue a comprehensive policy platform.

Myanmar remains one of the world’s least-developed countries and the second-largest producer of opium. Rife with corruption, it ranks 147th out of 168 countries on the latest index of Transparency International.

With one-third of the population having access to electricity, the government must decide whether to pursue dam construction by China, which has wreaked massive deforestation and other environmental degradation, or risk alienating its northern neighbour by axing Chinese projects.

Beijing is currently on a charm offensive to restart work on the US$3.6 billion (S$4.9 billion) Myitsone dam, which was suspended by the previous government after nationwide protests.

“For the next generation, peace is the best legacy to pass on. Our country will develop only if it has peace,” said Ms Suu Kyi last month, as preparations began for the Panglong 21st Century Conference next month to persuade more than 20 insurgent groups to lay down their weapons.

The Information Minister said peace will be some time in coming, with a key barrier the highly centralised, military-crafted Constitution, which Ms Suu Kyi and ethnic groups want amended to give greater autonomy to minorities. For some ethnic leaders, the conference will prove a non-starter unless such amendments are made and the army halts its ongoing attacks against the Kachin, Shan and others.

“We want to see Suu Kyi publicly condemn the current fighting and war crimes of the past. Without this the talks will fail,” said Mr Charm Tong, a leading Shan human rights activist. She has done neither, with her government at least tacitly going along with military efforts to ban public discourse about the army’s decades-long abuses.

“The main success of the government is that it is there. Although with limited powers, it is the first civilian government since 1962. And that gives the people some hope,” said Mr Lintner.

The Information Minister called Ms Suu Kyi’s win a “dream come true, but people expected something more, something perfect, so they are not 100 per cent happy or satisfied”. AP