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Rodrigo Duterte gets closer to China, and neighbours notice

BEIJING — After unleashing an anti-American tirade in Beijing last week, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines left some Chinese, who like tightly scripted state visits, wondering if their unpredictable guest could be trusted.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, right, is shown the way by Chinese President Xi Jinping before a signing ceremony in Beijing, China on Thursday, Oct 20, 2016. Photo: AP

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, right, is shown the way by Chinese President Xi Jinping before a signing ceremony in Beijing, China on Thursday, Oct 20, 2016. Photo: AP

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BEIJING — After unleashing an anti-American tirade in Beijing last week, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines left some Chinese, who like tightly scripted state visits, wondering if their unpredictable guest could be trusted.

Yet his alacrity in accepting direct talks over the disputed South China Sea, and his gratitude for US$24 billion (S$33.41 billion) in investment and financing deals, also left the broad impression that China may have started a strategic realignment in South-east Asia by bringing an important United States ally to its side.

Countries like Vietnam, which had been edging closer to the US, and Malaysia and Thailand, which were moving toward Beijing, may now see the value in drawing closer to China, analysts said.

“China has improved relations with Duterte immediately, and set up a way to settle the South China Sea disputes peacefully,” said Professor Yan Xuetong, who specialises in international relations at Tsinghua University and a prominent foreign-policy hawk. “Generally speaking, this problem in the South China Sea is over, and the United States cannot do anything now.”

The Philippines, a treaty ally of the US since 1951, has been regarded as one of the fundamental pro-American countries in Asia.

In his declaration that he was seeking a “separation” from the US — a statement that he scaled back when he got home — Mr Duterte seemed to signal that he was dumping his country’s longtime ally and former colonial power.

He also said he would form a triple alliance with China and Russia to “face the world”.

Some analysts marvelled at Beijing’s good fortune, after a tense period leading to a ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague against China about its activities in the South China Sea. And Mr Duterte’s apparent about-face came without the leadership in Beijing doing much more than accepting the results of the democratic election that put him in office.

“It’s a gift, not a victory,” Prof Yan said of Mr Duterte’s remarks. “Victory means you get something through your own effort. We did nothing. It’s a gift.”

At the same time, Mr Duterte’s hosts were startled by his anti-US remarks, raising concerns that he could become a liability.

There is little chance, for example, that Beijing policymakers would want a China-Russia-Philippines alliance, said Prof Zhang Baohui, an international relations expert at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.

“I don’t think at this moment Beijing wants a really close partnership with him, especially if that partnership could be seen as an anti-US alliance,” Prof Zhang said.

On social media, there was scepticism about Mr Duterte’s sincerity. Perhaps he was engaging in a game like one played by couples in Shanghai, who arrange fake divorces to evade restrictions on property purchases, one person wrote on Weibo.

Others on social media made fun of Mr Duterte as the ruler of a country that is often belittled here as a place for abundant tropical fruit but not much more. One cartoonist depicted Mr Duterte as a banana salesman who had plenty for sale now that the embargo of the past four years had been lifted.

Still, the Philippine delegation’s visit was viewed as a success on several fronts.

The Philippine defence secretary, Mr Delfin Lorenzana, met with his Chinese counterpart Chang Wanquan, and agreed to a renewal of ties between the two navies. There were no specifics on what the new relationship would entail, but the encounter struck a different tone to the strained relationship under former President Benigno Aquino.

Another gain for China: The acceptance by the Philippines of large amounts of infrastructure to be built by state-owned Chinese companies. If the deals come to fruition, they will significantly reverse China’s relatively small economic presence in the Philippines.

Mr Ramon Lopez, the Philippine trade secretary, said that China had agreed to spend US$15 billion on projects to help achieve the biggest infrastructure boom in the Philippines since the authoritarian rule of President Ferdinand Marcos.

Mr Trinh Nguyen, an economist specialising in the Asian Pacific region at Natixis Bank, sounded a note of caution about the value of the Chinese investments.

“Pledges do not necessarily translate into realised foreign direct investment for the Philippines,” he said. “This is just a symbol of the Chinese government’s good will toward the country.”

Despite Mr Duterte’s anti-US stance in Beijing, he refrained from specifically stating that he would halt Washington access to five Philippine bases.

In the longer term, China would relish such a policy because it would further the country’s goal of control of the South China Sea and complicate US military planning.

But such a pledge was not expected on the first visit, and China was satisfied with Mr Duterte’s decision to accept the plan for direct talks on the South China Sea, a position that is contrary to US policy, analysts said.

There is no doubt that Mr Duterte’s success with China has rattled South-east Asian nations who seek its economic largess but fear its strategic ambitions, said Prof Alexander Vuving, an expert on international relations at the Daniel K Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii.

Vietnam is now being forced to rethink its stance of leaning toward the US, he said. But more likely than tilting toward China, Vietnam will seek to persuade Washington to strengthen its commitment to the region, he said.

“Duterte’s pivot causes confusion,” Prof Vuving said, “but also validates Vietnam’s current approach to China, which combines deference with resistance and avoids relying on a single great power.” THE NEW YORK TIMES

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