S Korea to lead in life expectancy by 2030: Study

SEOUL — South Koreans are set to have the longest life expectancy in the world, eclipsing long-standing leader Japan, according to a new study.

Women in South Korea will, by 2030, be the first to claim an average lifespan of more than 90 years, forecast the study’s authors, who put the developments primarily down to investment in universal healthcare.

The findings by researchers at Imperial College London come amid increasingly acrimonious debate about the future of healthcare in countries including the United Kingdom and the United States, which the study projects will have the lowest life expectancy of rich countries — 83 for women and 80 for men — by 2030.

“It’s basically the opposite of what we’re doing in the West, where there’s a lot of austerity and inequality,” said lead researcher Majid Ezzati.

South Korean women are projected to live to nearly 91 by 2030, with the country’s men also set to lead other nations with a life expectancy of 84.

The findings underscore the remarkable transformation of South Korea over the past 60 years from an impoverished, war-torn nation to a modern powerhouse.

In addition to universal healthcare, the study, which was published in medical journal The Lancet on Tuesday, attributed the development to improvements in education, childhood nutrition and the “rapid scale-up of new medical technologies”.

“South Korea has also maintained lower body-mass index and blood pressure than most Western countries,” the study said.

The findings, however, also signal growing generational strains in the East Asian nation.

South Korea has the highest elderly poverty rate among members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A report last year found that nearly half of Koreans aged 65 or above lived below the poverty line.

Dr Park Eun-cheol, a professor of medicine at Yonsei University, also sounded a warning about the relationship between the country’s high life expectancy and low fertility rate.

“South Korea’s low fertility rate means there is a very low incidence of child mortality. This has a big impact on calculating life expectancy.”

Meanwhile, life expectancy in Japan — a nation long synonymous with longevity — is expected to slide down the ranking.

The average lifespan of Japanese women is forecast to be overtaken by both South Korea and France, while men will drop to 11th place from fourth currently.

By 2030, the US will have life expectancy on a par with Mexico, the study suggests, attributing the poor performance to insufficient healthcare, high maternal and child death rates, and the high incidence of homicide.

For Prof Ezzati, the life expectancy of humans broadly will continue to increase and may at some point reach 110 or 120 years old. “I can imagine there is a limit, but we are very far from it,” he said. FINANCIAL TIMES