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UMNO losing truck with rural Malays despite Rompin victory

KUALA LUMPUR — Ruling coalition Barisan Nasional’s (BN) performance at the Rompin by-elections, could signal that the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), is losing truck with rural Malays, a voting bloc that is a traditional stronghold for the ruling party.

Mr Hasan Arifin (centre) beat his PAS opponent in the Rompin by-election by garnering 61 per cent of total votes cast, 5 per cent shy of the 66 per cent the ruling coalition received during the 2013 elections. Photo: The Malay Mail Online

Mr Hasan Arifin (centre) beat his PAS opponent in the Rompin by-election by garnering 61 per cent of total votes cast, 5 per cent shy of the 66 per cent the ruling coalition received during the 2013 elections. Photo: The Malay Mail Online

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KUALA LUMPUR — Ruling coalition Barisan Nasional’s (BN) performance at the Rompin by-elections, could signal that the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), is losing truck with rural Malays, a voting bloc that is a traditional stronghold for the ruling party.

The falling support for UMNO in the district located in Pahang state — where Prime Minister Najib Razak served as Chief Minister from 1982 to 1986 — will be of particular concern for Putrajaya, as Mr Najib continues to face pressure from former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad to step down.

BN’s Hasan Arifin beat opposition Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) candidate Nazri Ahmad by garnering 61 per cent of total votes cast, 5 per cent shy of the 66 per cent the ruling coalition received during the 2013 elections.

Mr Hasan’s win was immediately feted by Mr Najib.

“BN will take this (win) as a commitment and I am confident that Datuk Hasan Arifin will render excellent service to bring development and progress in Rompin. Hidup (Live) Barisan Nasional!,” wrote Mr Najib in a Facebook posting.

Rompin is considered a typical UMNO stronghold. It has a large rural population that is overwhelmingly of Malay ethnicity, many of whom are Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) settlers, a scheme to help the rural poor plant cash crops.

But the by-election has shown that FELDA settlers themselves are no longer automatically voting for UMNO, as the vote breakdown in polling districts in FELDA schemes show that a significant number of younger settlers voted for PAS.

Mr Ibrahim Suffian of the independent pollster Merdeka Center said the percentage of popular vote reflected the level or trend of support for a party.

The Rompin parliamentary seat was held by the late Jamaluddin Jarjis who, in 2013, won 30,040 out of a total of 45,849 votes that had been cast. On Wednesday night, Mr Hasan garnered 23,796 out of 39,288 votes.

The decreased support for UMNO from 66 per cent to 61 per cent of votes cast translated into a fall in majority from 15,114 in 2013 to only 8,895 this week.

Wednesday’s turnout was 70 per cent, compared with 85.89 per cent in the 2013 elections.

“So if you discount the young, outstation, urban-dwelling voters who did not come back, you are left with the locals, who are the typical hard core UMNO supporters,” Mr Ibrahim said. This means the 5 per cent fall in support was among those who would usually vote for BN, observed Mr Ibrahim.

Dr Mahathir attributed the slimmer margin to the unhappiness stemming from the 6 per cent Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced on April 1.

“The focus there (in Rompin) is GST, higher cost of living, the increase in prices of goods and at the bottom (of the list) is 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Bhd),” said Dr Mahathir.

“If we look now, purchasing power has gone down and they (the people) have to pay for GST. This further reduces their income,” said the former premier.

Dr Mahathir has been pushing openly for Mr Najib’s resignation, saying the latter’s refusal to address allegations such as those surrounding 1MDB, the state investment vehicle which has lost up to RM42 billion (S$15.6 billion), puts BN’s rule at risk.

Pahang Chief Minister Adnan Yaakob added that “the voters are sending a message to the government. The GST and FELDA are issues which affect the people. We have to deal with this”.

Other analysts have pointed out that the fall in support for UMNO should not be interpreted as a decline in support among the Malays but rather unhappiness with the GST.

Chief executive officer of the Centre for Strategic Engagement Fui K Soong told TODAY that “the results should be a wake-up call for UMNO/BN in addressing the seriousness of the impact of falling commodity prices and the impact GST on the cost of fertilisers in the rural areas particularly, in the FELDA schemes”.

“However, the results were still a protest vote by BN supporters in Rompin and it is a good opportunity for the government to rectify some of the pressing stomach issues in the rural areas,” added Ms Soong. AGENCIES WITH ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY JASON TAN

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