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Beijing tensions fuel S$748b arms race in Asia-Pacific region

LONDON — The growth of China’s military spending, combined with heightened tensions over Beijing’s greater assertiveness in its territorial claims, are likely to propel the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region to the top rank of military spending by the end of the decade, despite a regional economic slowdown, suggest new research reports.

LONDON — The growth of China’s military spending, combined with heightened tensions over Beijing’s greater assertiveness in its territorial claims, are likely to propel the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region to the top rank of military spending by the end of the decade, despite a regional economic slowdown, suggest new research reports.

“Rising tensions in APAC have seen a long overdue process of military modernisation move up the political agenda in a number of countries,” wrote Mr Craig Caffrey, principal analyst at IHS Jane’s, in a report. “The Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam are all following China’s lead and we see no sign of this trend coming to an end.”

Asia-Pacific will account for one in three US dollars spent on defence by the early 2020s, up from one in five in 2010, according to the London-based military publisher.

By 2020, total military spending in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to reach US$533 billion (S$748 billion) a year from US$435 billion in 2015, said IHS Jane’s. Last year, nine of the 20 fastest-growing defence budgets were found in the Asia-Pacific, up from seven a year earlier.

Benefiting from an increased defence spending in the region, China led growth in major arms exports in the 2011-2015 period, with weapons sales rising 88 per cent from the previous five-year span, said a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The think-tank said China’s gains have been driven by demand from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Vietnam, which is currently embroiled in a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, jumped from being the 43rd-largest arms importer in 2006-2010 to the eighth-largest for the 2011-2015 period. Hanoi’s arms imports increased by 699 per cent — the highest growth rate among the top 10 arms importers over the past five years, said the report.

SIPRI also noted that, aside from Hanoi and Beijing, four other Asia-Pacific countries were among the top 10 largest arms importers for the 2011-2015 period.

Washington confirmed last Thursday that Beijing recently placed surface-to-air missiles on Woody Island — which is part of the China-controlled Paracel chain that Vietnam and Taiwan also claim sovereignty over. “For several of the countries, like Vietnam and the Philippines, that obviously shows that China means it when it says ‘this is ours’,” said Mr Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at SIPRI.

Amid these tensions, Asia-Pacific countries do not appear to be inclined to slash their military budgets — even as their economies have come under strain from a regional slowdown, said the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“The slight moderation in economic activity had little effect on regional military spending in 2015,” wrote the London-based think-tank in a new report, adding that China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia last year were among the countries to announce plans for higher military spending. AGENCIES

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