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Malaysia’s opposition may have shaky hold on Putrajaya in GE at best, says Politweet

KUALA LUMPUR — Opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition can only form a stable federal government — even under the best conditions — if it can win more seats in east Malaysia, according to a Politweet simulation.

Leaders from the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) pact wave their party flags during its convention in January. Social media research firm Politweet predicts that PH can only form a stable federal government if it can win more seats in East Malaysia. Photo: Malay Mail Online

Leaders from the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) pact wave their party flags during its convention in January. Social media research firm Politweet predicts that PH can only form a stable federal government if it can win more seats in East Malaysia. Photo: Malay Mail Online

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KUALA LUMPUR — Opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition can only form a stable federal government — even under the best conditions — if it can win more seats in east Malaysia, according to a Politweet simulation.

The simulation by the social media research firm used the Opposition’s performance during the 2013 general election as its base year and gave PH a five-point increase (an additional five per cent chance of a person voting for them), which saw them forming a government with 115 to 117 out of the 222 parliamentary seats.

“In a straight fight against (ruling coalition) BN (Barisan Nasional), PH can form the federal government with a five-point swing of support leading to a win of 115 seats. However a slim margin of three seats would not be enough for a stable government,” Politweet said.

A party or coalition in Malaysia needs a minimum 112 seats in order to form a government.

“A stronger swing of support and victories in East Malaysia would still be important for PH. Due to the high-risk seats, PH would need to target an additional 10 or more seats in East Malaysia.

“Given the performance of the Opposition in the Sarawak state elections in 2016 and the current state of the Opposition in Sabah, we can expect PH to face difficulty in winning 10 seats,” the simulation predicted.

The social media research firm specialising in politics ran two more scenarios with the first granting PH the same odds as the 13th General Election (GE13) in 2013 contested by the then-Pakatan Rakyat pact comprising Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), which saw them winning 76 to 83 seats.

The second scenario gave them a two-points increase and saw them taking 89 to 99 seats.

Pakatan Rakyat was dissolved in 2015 following a public spat between PAS and DAP over the fomer insistence to implement the Islamic penal code in Kelantan.

Subsequently, PH was formed, comprising PKR, DAP, PAS splinter group Parti Amanah Nasional (Amanah) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), which is led by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad.

However, Politweet pointed out that three-corner fights between PH, PAS and BN would benefit the ruling coalition.

“The only way for PH to overcome this is for their parties (particularly PPBM) to win over pro-BN supporters. For example in a seat contested by PAS, PPBM and BN, if 10 per cent of the anti-BN vote went to PAS, PPBM would need to counter that by getting more than 10 per cent of the pro-BN vote,” it said.

“If PH is able to do this in three-corner fights then the results of Scenario 3 (a 5-point swing to PH) can be achieved. This will lead to record victories for PH in Kedah and Johor, as well as control of the federal government,” it said.

The firm ran 300 simulations for each of the 222 parliamentary seat in all three scenarios using the 2016 third quarter electoral roll and made its calculations based on the average.

The conditions of the simulations included straight fights between BN and the Opposition, with PAS being a member of the opposition; no redelineation exercise; voter sentiment and average turnout remaining the same as GE13.

Other conditions were the best and worst-case scenarios for the ruling government and the Opposition, and parties are considered to have won a seat based on the number of times it won the seat in the simulations.

A separate simulation based on possible constituency redelineation also saw the odds favouring BN.

The simulation predicted strong possibilities for BN to take over Amanah seats in Kuala Nerus, Terengganu; Bukit Gantang and Lumut, Perak; as well as Hulu Langat and Sepang, Selangor.

Under the simulation it also saw PKR losing its seats in Kapar, Selangor; Lembah Pantai in Kuala Lumpur; Telok Kemang, Negri Sembilan; Bukit Katil, Melaka and; Batu Pahat, Johor.

Another aspect that is a threat to PH’s success is the waning support it is facing from youths and the rapidly declining interest in political issues on social media.

Its “Potential Voter Interest in Political Parties on Facebook, Malaysia, April 2014 — Dec 2017” graph showed a 30 percentage point decline to 29.5 per cent in December 2017 from 59.38 per cent in November 2016.

The graph is calculated based on a users’ profile information, Page likes, posts, shares and other activity on Facebook.

“From our observations on Twitter using our database of profiled users in Malaysia, support expressed for Opposition parties has been weak. This would indicate that support from the youth will be a problem in GE14,” Politweet reported in using the acronym for the upcoming national polls that is expected to be called within months. MALAY MAIL ONLINE

 

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