Biggest SEA risk is terror networks, not lone wolves: Counter-terror panel

SINGAPORE — The likelihood of lone-wolf attacks is low in South-east Asia, said a panel of counter-terrorism experts yesterday, because would-be terrorists are more likely to be radicalised and subsequently operate within a broader network .

“The idea of lone-wolf (terror attacks) like those in Europe, the United States and Australia is very rare in this part of the world,” Jakarta-based expert on terrorism Sidney Jones, director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, told TODAY.

In citing Indonesia — the world’s most populous Muslim country, which has seen about 250 of its citizens joining Islamic State (IS) — as an example, Ms Jones said many of the terror organisation’s supporters who wanted to join the group would turn to similar groupings for support and advice first.

“There are almost no lone-wolf attacks in South-east Asia and it is partly because Indonesian jihadists are mostly radicalised through taking part in radical discussion groups called pengajian,” she said.

“People who are interested in IS on their own look for radical discussion groups before taking it further.”

Moreover, those who have been radicalised and are fighting for IS have no intention of returning and carrying out lone-wolf operations, she added at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) — Yusof Ishak Institute regional outlook forum 2016.

These militants believe in IS’ goal of establishing an Islamic caliphate and would rather die as martyrs than return to their own countries.

In supporting Ms Jones’ views, Malaysia’s International Islamic University Assistant Professor Maszlee Malik said those who went to fight for IS had wanted to live life under an Islamic caliphate, believing that their current nations are too “Westernised”. They also believed in the Islamic end-of-time prophecies.

“IS play to the end-day prophecy sentiments, and those who were radicalised thought this is the way to start a new life,” he said at the forum.

“Some believed the prophecy is coming and they affiliate themselves to IS and hence, they choose to go there (Iraq and Syria) and do not want to return.”

Countries around the world have been in a state of alert ever since IS sent out its call to supporters to conduct lone-wolf terror attacks against the Western world. The terror group has even issued a guide on how to carry out such attacks.

Among the latest lone-wolf attacks was the December 2015 mass shooting at San Bernardino in the US state of California by Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik. The couple killed 14 people, and injured 22 others.

Ms Jones also noted there is no clear indication yet that the central IS command wants to establish a strong network in South-east Asia, and this is why many of the fighters who hail from the region were not sent home.

“There is no indication that IS central is interested in South-east Asia, but that can change if there is a consolidation of IS activities and if that happens and a province of IS is declared in the region, this will raise the possibility of more action directed by IS central,” she added.

IS also needs fighters to defend its territory following relentless military strikes by the United States-led international coalition.

“So far, we don’t think anyone has been sent back with the specific mission to train and carry attacks in Indonesia,” said Ms Jones.

“It could happen in the future, but that’s not the most imminent threat.” EILEEN NG