The end for the incumbent Governor?

Last week, the Indonesian National Police named incumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (affectionately known as Ahok) as a blasphemy suspect. This means that Mr Purnama — an ethnic-Chinese Christian — will stand trial for allegedly uttering remarks some Muslims consider offensive. If found guilty, Mr Purnama could be sentenced to jail of up to five years. During his re-election campaign in Jakarta’s Thousand Islands Regency, Mr Purnama had urged a small crowd not to be deceived by those calling all Muslims not to vote for a non-Muslim leader because it is a sin. Referring to the use of Quranic verses such as Al Ma’idah verse 51 that prevents Muslims from electing a non-Muslim as leader, Mr Purnama said that voters should follow their guts when voting.

Mr Purnama’s words were taken out of context, but have been seized by some groups to whip up public anger. On Nov 4, about 150,000 Muslims protested in the streets of Jakarta, pressing the Governor to step down and be charged under blasphemy laws. The protest, organised by hard-line Islamic vigilante groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), began peacefully, but turned violent by the evening. President Joko Widodo has asked the police to investigate the case and pledged not to interfere.

WHAT NEXT FOR AHOK?

As it is, Mr Purnama’s candidacy for the 2017 Jakarta Gubernatorial election will continue despite being named as a blasphemy suspect. Mr Purnama is not required to withdraw from the race because Article 163 of Law Number 10/2016 governing the election of Governors, Regents and Mayors stipulates that candidates under legal investigation are still allowed to continue their candidacy and campaign activities. Mr Purnama can also assume the Governor post if elected, even if he remains under investigation. He would be required to withdraw his candidacy or be dismissed from his post as Governor only if he is found guilty.

On average, criminal prosecution for high-profile cases of this nature takes at least seven months to reach a conclusion in Indonesia. Going by this average, the case is likely to be under investigation throughout the campaign season, and even beyond the Feb 15 election date. If Mr Purnama wins the election in the first round, by securing 50 per cent of popular votes ahead of his two rivals, he could potentially be Governor-elect by early March while the case is still under way. The situation will be more complicated if Mr Purnama does not win in the first round, and he has to contest in the second round, scheduled in April. Recent polls indicate that Mr Purnama remains the most popular candidate, but there is a possibility that he may lose the election if it drags into the second round.

Thus, it is crucial for his campaign team to focus its efforts on getting him elected in the first round. By becoming Governor-elect, Mr Purnama can claim that he has the people’s mandate, which includes support from the Muslim majority residing in Jakarta. If he is found guilty of blasphemy and goes to jail after being elected, the election victory would also give him a much stronger platform for a political comeback in the future. The important question here is whether Jakarta’s Muslims would vote for a non-Muslim candidate who is a blasphemy suspect. While many ordinary Muslims have openly voiced their continuing support for Mr Purnama, observers are generally pessimistic over whether more-conservative Muslims would vote for him given the current circumstances.

His opponents, Mr Anies Baswedan and Mr Agus Yudhoyono, are unlikely to engage in an open attack on Mr Purnama on the grounds of the blasphemy allegation. Their calculation is this: Enough damage has already been done to Mr Purnama’s reputation, and they do not want to be seen as playing the racial and religious cards, something that could alienate liberal and progressive voters.

Yet, they will definitely capitalise on any lapses in Mr Purnama’s campaign. Both Mr Baswedan and Mr Yudhoyono have already targeted poorer Muslim areas that in recent weeks have rejected Mr Purnama’s campaign visits. Mr Purnama himself is retreating to his loyal supporter base, centred on his campaign headquarters, which also serves as a community help centre nicknamed ‘‘Rumah Lembang’’ (Lembang House), due to its location on Lembang Street in Central Jakarta.

Moving forward, Mr Purnama will need to win the support of undecided and moderate Muslims, and so far he has made the right moves. He has apologised to Muslims offended by his remarks. He could also build on efforts made by President Joko Widodo in engaging moderate and even conservative Muslim leaders. After all, Mr Purnama continues to have close ties with the President. He was Mr Widodo’s running mate in the 2012 Jakarta elections, and for this coming election, he has been endorsed by the President’s party, PDI-P.

A few days before the Nov 4 protest, Mr Widodo met key religious leaders from the Ulama Council of Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah to seek their cooperation in spreading a message of calm and non-violence. Some leaders from major Islamic organisations have openly already accepted Mr Purnama’s apology. To be sure, Muslims are also divided on this issue, but Mr Purnama needs to do more to win his critics over to his camp.

Winning over undecided and moderate Muslim voters is vital for Mr Purnama’s survival as a politician. A strong showing by him in the polls would mean that both Muslims and non-Muslim Jakartans are able to see past the blasphemy allegations and focus on his track record and campaign promises.

On the flipside, a heavy defeat would add legitimacy to the blasphemy case, which could then set a dangerous precedent for Indonesia.

While this is not the first blasphemy allegation to go on trial in the country, it is the first involving a high-profile individual.

Depending on the outcome of the elections, this could send an intimidating message that a blasphemy charge could potentially be used as a political tool to dismantle a non-Muslim candidate.

The months ahead will be trying times for Mr Purnama and his campaign team. From a broader perspective, how the Jakarta Gubernatorial election unfolds will serve as a barometer to gauge just how mature and tolerant contemporary Indonesian voters really are.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Dr Charlotte Setijadi is Visiting Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Dr Norshahril Saat is Fellow at the same institute.