Countering prejudice will be crucial as Islam grows

By 2050, the number of Muslims worldwide will grow by 70 per cent, outpacing every other religion and matching Christianity as the world’s most numerous faith. That rate of growth means that by mid-century, one in 10 people in France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom will be Muslim.

That is based on a study by Pew Research Center released last Thursday, which looked at the age distribution, fertility and mortality rates, and patterns of migration and conversion of the world’s religious groups. The study projects that by 2050, 30 per cent of the global population will be Muslim — all but equal to the 31 per cent that Pew projects will be Christian. An additional 15 per cent will be Hindu, 5 per cent Buddhist and 0.2 per cent Jewish.

That shift will be especially pronounced in Western countries, many of which will see the share of their population that is Muslim double, and in some cases triple, over the course of only two generations.

In a perfect world, that trend would be welcomed as an addition to the rich diversity of cultures and beliefs that make up any pluralistic liberal society. In practice, it will probably increase the strain on countries whose self-image of tolerance has clashed with the reality of lingering prejudice and unease towards people who are different.

Take Italy, where two in three respondents told Pew last year that they have unfavourable views of Muslims, and the government of the Lombardy region passed regulations in January that restrict the building of mosques. Managing those tensions will only get more important: The share of Italy’s population that is Muslim is projected to roughly triple, to 9.5 per cent, by 2050.

Or Germany, where a court last month lifted a ban on teachers wearing headscarves, yet marches by the anti-Muslim group Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West draw thousands of supporters. The share of Germany’s population that is Muslim is projected to double, to 10 per cent, by 2050.

Or France, where a Muslim woman told a BBC reporter after the Charlie Hebdo shootings that being rejected by her country because of her faith is “like being rejected by your mother”, and others said the French “would rather we have blond hair and blue eyes”. The share of France’s population that is Muslim is projected to increase 45 per cent by 2050.

Or Canada, where Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Parliament last month that the niqab is “rooted in a culture that is anti-woman”. His government is fighting to prevent immigrants from wearing the niqab while taking their oaths of citizenship. The share of Canada’s population that is Muslim is projected to almost triple by 2050.

Those divisions and prejudices may have been inflamed by the rise of the Islamic State, the attacks in Paris, the flood of refugees from Syria, a weak economy and any number of other challenges. But prejudice — whether its targets are Muslims, Jews or any other religious group — does not need much of an excuse. If Pew’s projections are right, countering that prejudice is going to get more important. BLOOMBERG

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Christopher Flavelle writes editorials on health care, economics and taxation. He was previously a senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Government.