India-Pakistan tensions spike over threat to cut water

NEW DELHI — Tensions between India and Pakistan have spiked after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cancellation of his visit to a regional summit puts it in doubt, and as Islamabad scrambled to lobby international support against New Delhi’s move to reassess a water treaty between the two neighbours, with a top Pakistani official warning that a revocation of the agreement would amount to “an act of war”.

India has sought to isolate Pakistan after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly assault that took place on Sept 18 on an army base in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir that killed 18 soldiers and triggered public fury.

On Tuesday, India said Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad in November, in a major snub to its neighbour.

Without naming Pakistan, India’s foreign ministry said “increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region and growing interference in the internal affairs of member states by one country” had created an environment that was not conducive to holding the summit. Hours later, Bangladesh said it was also pulling out.

Afghanistan and Bhutan — both close India allies — have since followed suit, according to a SAARC official who asked not to be named.

Under pressure to act after the Kashmir raid, Mr Modi warned Pakistan in a major speech on Saturday that India would push to make it a pariah state.

On Monday, he told top officials who had gathered to review implementation of the 56-year-old Indus Waters Treaty between the two neighbours that “blood and water cannot flow together”.

He also announced that the suspension of meetings of the bilateral committee that oversees how water is shared between the two countries while adding that India should “maximise” the amount of water it can use without breaching the agreement.

This prompted Sartaj Aziz, foreign policy adviser to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to warn India against drawing more water from three rivers that flow from India into Pakistan.

Mr Aziz said Islamabad would seek arbitration with a commission that monitors the treaty if India increased its use of water from the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers. If India revoked the treaty, Mr Aziz said, Pakistan would treat that as “an act of war or a hostile act against Pakistan”.

“It’s highly irresponsible on the part of India to even consider revocation of the Indus Water Treaty,” Mr Aziz told the national assembly.

Local media reports said Pakistan has since approached the World Bank and the International Court of Justice over the issue.

The World Bank brokered the 1960 agreement that regulates the flow of six rivers between India and Pakistan.

The treaty has withstood three wars but India’s latest forceful use of water as a diplomatic weapon makes the present crisis perilous.

Divided between India and Pakistan since 1947, the flashpoint of Kashmir lies at the heart of the countries’ rivalry.

India on Tuesday summoned Pakistan’s High Commissioner in New Delhi and told him that security forces had in their custody two men from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir who had helped the gunmen cross the border before launching the army base raid.

Pakistan denies any involvement in the attack, the worst of its kind in over a decade.

At the last SAARC summit in 2014 a newly elected Mr Modi shook hands with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif, raising hopes of warmer ties.

Just over a year later, Mr Modi made a surprise Christmas Day visit to Pakistan for a meeting with Mr Sharif. But those hopes were dashed after seven Indians were killed by militants in January 2016 at the Pathankot Air Force Base near the border with Pakistan, and peace talks have been on ice ever since.

Indian and Pakistani mistrust has long undermined South Asian cooperation and is widely blamed for the poor performance of SAARC, which successive Indian leaders hoped would help South Asia become a viable economic counterweight to China.

South Asia analyst Ashok Malik said the withdrawals from the SAARC meeting would have little practical impact on Pakistan, but could push it closer to rival regional power China.

“It basically scores a symbolic and a political victory. As for Pakistan, this will push it even closer to China,” said Mr Malik, head of the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation’s regional studies initiative. AGENCIES