US still searching for credible allies in Syria

WASHINGTON — Despite years of diplomacy and a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operation to vet and train moderate rebels, the United States finds itself without a credible partner on the ground in Syria as it bombs the Islamic State group. That is a potentially serious flaw in its strategy to ultimately defeat the militants.

US administration officials have long conceded that air strikes alone would not drive the Islamic State from its strongholds across Syria and Iraq, but it has also ruled out the use of American ground troops. The US strategy to crush the Sunni militant group rests on the use of local proxy forces and hinges on plans to use US$500 million (S$637 million) and a base in Saudi Arabia to build an army of moderate Syrian rebels.

The ground force component has always been seen as a challenge in Syria, but the difficulty has become clearer in recent days. Officials acknowledge that the US does not trust any Syrian rebel group enough to coordinate on the air campaign, despite attempts by some pro-Western fighters to pass along intelligence about Islamic State positions.

The CIA has secretly trained and is paying more than 1,000 moderates to help achieve the administration’s stated objective of overthrowing Syrian President Bashar Assad, US officials have said.

Those fighters have been gaining ground against Mr Assad in southern Syria and, in some places, are fighting the Islamic State, said Mr Robert Ford, a former US Ambassador to Syria. The CIA-funded fighters have proven reliable and have made modest gains, said a congressional aide who had been briefed on the matter. The aide spoke only on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

But some analysts have questioned the loyalty and competence of the fighters. Either way, it is clear that their impact has not been decisive.

“Most of these groups have worked closely with Jabhat Al Nusra at some point in the past year or so,” said Associate Professor Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, referring to the head of Syria’s Al Qaeda spin-off. “Some of them have worked hand in glove with the Islamic State. For Americans to call a sit-down and say, ‘Here’s where we’re bombing’ doesn’t make any sense. We don’t trust these guys.”

American officials do not go that far in public remarks, but they have been fairly blunt. “We don’t have a willing, capable, effective partner on the ground inside Syria right now,’’ Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said last week. “It’s just a fact.”

General John Allen, the retired Marine general in charge of coordinating the US-led coalition against the Islamic State, told reporters on Wednesday that at this point, there was no formal coordination with the US-backed moderate rebels known as the Free Syrian Army.

That approach has infuriated the rebels, fuelling mistrust on both sides. The commander of a moderate rebel brigade in the northern Aleppo province called the US-led air strikes “pointless and self-serving”. He added that the rebels had tried to pass along information about Islamic State positions to the US military, but had received no response. “The Americans are kidding themselves,” he said.

Moderate factions such as his are trapped between Islamic fighters on one side and government forces on another, and the US has not once hit the Islamic State along the 19km front it occupies against his group, he added.

“I am surprised at how fractious and disunified the Syrian opposition has been,’’ said Mr Michael O’Hanlon, a military strategy expert at the Brookings Institution. “They just haven’t managed to find a charismatic leader or a single rallying point.”

Part of the explanation, he and others said, rests with the decision by the Obama administration not to fund and equip the moderates three years ago, before Nusra and the Islamic State grew in strength.

Gen Allen said: “(The US-led coalition intends) to build a coherence to the Free Syrian Army elements that will give it the capacity and the credibility over time to be able to make its weight felt in the battlefield against the Islamic State. It’s going to require a build phase. It’s going to require a training and equipping phase.”

But critics question whether US$500 million and several thousand fighters will be enough. “I do not understand how 5,000 to 10,000 men are going to hold the eastern half of Syria,” said Mr Ford, the former ambassador. “It looks woefully inadequate to me.” AP