No ‘foreign force’ can stand in way of China-Philippines ties, says Beijing

BEIJING — Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to China this week points towards a restoration of trust between the sides following recent tensions over their South China Sea territorial dispute, China’s official news agency said yesterday.

The visit by Mr Duterte, who arrived in Beijing yesterday evening, will be a step towards ending years of estrangement between the countries, Xinhua News Agency said.

“Should he demonstrate his good faith, the trip will present a long overdue opportunity for the two nations, which enjoy longstanding friendship, to heal the wounds of the past few years and steer their relationship back to the right course,” Xinhua said in a commentary.

China’s relationship with the South-east Asian nation nosedived in 2012 after Beijing took control of the Scarborough Shoal, a triangle of reefs and rocks located just 340km from Manila. The move prompted then-president Benigno Aquino to take a firm stance against China while moving closer to the United States, its top military ally.

Mr Duterte has sought to shift that stance, and has repeatedly said he is looking to distance the Philippines from the US to pivot towards China and Russia.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi yesterday said no “foreign force” can stand in the way of progress in the long-neglected relationship between China and the Philippines. He praised Mr Duterte for working to improve ties and for returning to “the track of dialogue and cooperation”.

“This reflects the wish of the Philippine people, and is in line with the Philippines’ national interest. No foreign force can stand in the way of such process.”

While Mr Wang gave no details, he was likely referencing the US as a foreign force that could upset the rapprochement between Manila and Beijing, given the 65-year-old mutual defence treaty between the US and the Philippines.

Mr Duterte has said he wants to reduce US military influence in his country and build closer ties with China.

How far he is willing to go will be tested during his visit this week to China for talks that are likely to produce signals of whether he wants to become a close friend of Beijing.

“If China succeeds in peeling the Philippines away from the United States, it will be a major win in Beijing’s long-term campaign to weaken US alliances in the region,” said Mr Andrew Shearer, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“It will feed fears that the right mix of intimidation and inducements could influence other partners to distance themselves from Washington.”

How well China succeeds with Mr Duterte will send signals throughout the region, where robust economic relationships with China are vital for most countries even as they fear its growing military clout — and its push for control of the South China Sea.

“China will be very watchful about how far Duterte wants to go,” said Mr Zhu Feng, executive director of the Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies at Nanjing University. “His pledge to distance from the United States, of course it’s very positive for China.”

As China probes Mr Duterte for strategic concessions, the new leader has his own shopping list for economic help from Beijing.

He has said he wants the Chinese to construct a railway in his home province of Mindanao, and from the capital, Manila, to Mindanao.

A large contingent of Philippine businessmen accompanying Mr Duterte is expecting the Chinese to lift bans on more than two dozen fruits, imposed by Beijing four years ago in retaliation against the former government for its stance on the South China Sea.

Mr Duterte will be accorded a full state visit, and is scheduled to meet with the Chinese leader, President Xi Jinping, tomorrow. He is also expected to meet with Mr Zhang Dejiang, the chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress.

One of the toughest parts of the discussion between Mr Duterte and the Chinese leadership is likely to be over Scarborough Shoal. In reaction to that takeover, the Philippines initiated a case before an international tribunal in The Hague. In July, the tribunal ruled in favour of the Philippines, invalidating China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea.

China has denounced the decision and vowed to ignore it.

A Chinese expert on the South China Sea, Dr Wu Shicun, the head of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said he could envision a “package” deal that would include a precondition that the Philippines recognise Chinese sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal.

In return for that, Philippine and Chinese fishermen could operate in the waters around Scarborough Shoal, but not inside the vast lagoon of the shoal because of environmental damage from overfishing in those waters, he said.

As much as China welcomes Mr Duterte, he may not be an easy customer on all fronts, said Professor Renato Cruz De Castro, a fellow at the East-West Center in Washington, and an expert on China and the Philippines.

China would meddle with Mr Duterte’s ties to the US by extending generous economic inducements and offering a deal on the South China Sea, he said. But on one important item, Mr Duterte would almost certainly prove an obstacle.

“Duterte is putting China on the spot,” Prof De Castro said. “If they do military construction at Scarborough Shoal, that would drive Duterte back to the United States.” AGENCIES