Trump Twitter bursts throw decades-old alliances into chaos

WASHINGTON — For the first time in decades, America’s oldest allies are questioning where Washington’s heart is.

This week, President Donald Trump and his deputies hit out at some of America’s closest friends, blasting a “dumb” refugee resettlement deal with Australia and accusing Japan and Germany of manipulating their currencies.

Ties with Mexico have deteriorated to the point that its government had to deny reports that Mr Trump told President Enrique Pena Nieto he might send US troops across the southern border.

“When you hear about the tough phone calls I have, don’t worry about it,” Mr Trump said on Thursday (Feb 2) to an audience of religious and political leaders at the National Prayer Breakfast, a yearly event in Washington.

“The world is in trouble, but we’re going to straighten it out, OK? That’s what I do.”

The dilemma for officials globally is figuring out if Mr Trump’s blunt style is simply a tactic to keep them off balance or the start of a move to tear up the rule book that has guided relations with the US since World War II.

In the meantime, allies have little choice but to prepare for the worst.

The latest attacks came against Australia and Japan, even as Mr Trump’s new Pentagon chief, General (Retired) James Mattis, is in the region to offer assurances about the US’s commitment to security ties.

“For those of us like Australia, Japan or Korea, who have been dependent on that continuity, we have got to start thinking about a situation where the US is much more self- interested, and more capricious on what it might do,” said Nick Bisley, a professor of international relations at La Trobe University in Melbourne.

“Countries in the region have got to sit down and say those old arrangements can’t last forever.”

Mr Trump’s willingness to publicly attack America’s friends in Asia marks a sharp contrast from the Barack Obama administration, which sought to build a united front against China’s military and economic clout.

Mr Trump has suggested Asian nations should pay more for US security and pulled out of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Earlier this week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pushed back on Mr Trump’s accusations that his country was gaming the foreign exchange market and hindering American auto sales.

Still, Mr Abe has a bigger concern when he meets Mr Trump on Feb 10: Japan de-pends on the US nuclear umbrella to protect it from China and North Korea.

On Thursday, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull found himself under fire. In a late-night tweet, Mr Trump blasted a deal for the US to resettle refugees that are being held by Australia in offshore camps, many of them from the Middle East or South Asia.

“Do you believe it? The Obama administration agreed to take thousands of illegal immigrants from Australia. Why? I will study this dumb deal!” Mr Trump tweeted.

If that wasn’t bad enough, earlier in the day Mr Turnbull fielded questions on a Wash-ington Post report that said Mr Trump berated him in a Jan 28 phone call.

The president told Mr Turnbull that he had spoken to four other global leaders that day, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, and “this was the worst call by far”, the paper reported, citing unidentified US officials.

In a radio interview on Thursday after Mr Trump’s tweet, Mr Turnbull said he still expects the deal will go ahead. He added he was “very disappointed” over the leak and said the call with Trump ended “courteously”.

“A lot of Australians will find this report deeply unsettling,” said John Blaxland, a senior fellow at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in Canberra.

“Australia has invested in this relationship and has been a faithful partner, especially since the declaration of the global war on terror. Trump needs Australia to support its interests in the Asia-Pacific.”

While Mr Trump continued to criticise the refugee deal in Washington on Thursday, he told business executives and union representatives: “I love Australia as a country.”

When a “previous administration does something you have to respect that, but you can also say ‘why are we doing this?’” he said. “We have wonderful allies and we’re going to keep it that way, but we need to be treated fairly also.”

One calming voice may be Defence Secretary Mattis, who is visiting South Korea and Japan. In Seoul on Thursday, he reaffirmed the US’ commitment to defend South Korea against the North, according to a statement from the nation’s presidential office.

Another may be Senator John McCain, a leading Republican on foreign policy, who said he called Australia’s ambassador to the US Joe Hockey to “express my unwavering support for the US-Australia alliance”.

Still, given Mr Trump’s unpredictability, even such words may not help.

On Thursday, he was again on Twitter, warning Iran had been “put on notice” for testing ballistic missiles. “Iran was on its last legs and ready to collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the form of the Iran Deal: $150 billion,” he said.

The administration is expected to impose new sanctions on Iran as early as Friday (Feb 3), according to two people familiar with the plans.

Key tests for Mr Trump in Asia will be whether he reaffirms that the mutual defense treaty with Japan applies to islands also claimed by China, and if he continues freedom-of-navigation operations in Asia’s waterways, according to Fumiaki Kubo, a professor at the University of Tokyo.

“Even if Mr Trump says something very positive, we may not be really reassured yet unless positive words are followed up by concrete action,” Prof Kubo said.

“There’s no advance consultation with allies in the region, so there are many things to be concerned about.”

One country that could benefit from a US retrenchment is China.

President Xi Jinping has fashioned himself as a champion of globalisation in recent months, and sought to accelerate the passage of a regional trade agreement initiated by South-east Asian nations.

Still, Beijing has a lot to lose if things go wrong. A trade war with the US could worsen an economic slowdown in a politically sensitive year, with the Communist Party set to shift many top leaders.

China is in dispute with several Southeast Asian nations over the South China Sea, an area where it has reclaimed reefs and built military outposts. New Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has already pledged to challenge China over the waterway.

“China has no idea at the moment about how to deal with Trump and taking a cautious approach,” said Nicholas Thomas, an associate professor of Asian studies at City University of Hong Kong.

“The one question that everyone is looking at in the region – and this goes to the web of security partnerships in Asia – is what is going to happen between America and China over the South China Sea.” BLOOMBERG