The Big Read: With split in youth vote, will Malaysia politics see a new dawn post-GE or yesterday once more?

SINGAPORE — After days of being kept on tenterhooks following an inconclusive General Election (GE), a sense of cautious optimism finally pervaded many young Malaysians after a unity government was formed on Nov 24, with reformist opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim as the prime minister. 

Ms Tiffany Yeo, 27, a firm supporter of the new government led by Mr Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, said: “I’m relieved… if the result had gone another way, I think there’s not much hope left for many of us.”  

The magazine writer, who voted in Petra Jaya in Sarawak, was referring to the possibility of the other rival coalition, led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, coming to power instead.

Ms Yeo believes that the youth vote — which analysts had earlier predicted would play a crucial role in GE2022 — did have an impact on the polls, having observed that many more young people had come out to vote on Nov 19, compared to the last election.

“Maybe this is because we have seen a lot of things going on in the last two years, it was the Covid-19 era, and we also saw the prime ministership change hands a couple of times. Many of us voted because we needed to see a stable government,” she told TODAY over a phone interview from Kuching, Sarawak. 

Like many urban youth voters whom TODAY spoke to, Ms Yeo made no secret of the fact that she had voted for Mr Anwar’s PH coalition, which she believes holds more progressive and needs-based values, compared to other political parties that had campaigned based on racial lines. 

Now that the 75-year-old Mr Anwar — whose decades-long journey to the top had been filled with twists and turns, as well as jail terms — is in the driver’s seat, Ms Teo said that she can breathe easy. 

But another young voter, business consultant Kaz Mansor from Muar, Johor, is keeping any optimism in check for the time being, despite being cheered by the formation of a unity government. 

While the 28-year-old hopes that Malaysia can move forward as a nation after a tumultuous two years, he is afraid that history may repeat itself, with the country falling into another round of political turmoil, as it did shortly after the previous GE in 2018.

“I’m just afraid that these political leaders will do something like the Sheraton Move again, and the whole political drama will never end,” said Mr Mansor. 

The Sheraton Move occurred in early 2020, less than two years after PH took power, when a faction within the coalition defected to form Perikatan Nasional (PN), and establish a new government with Mr Muhyiddin as prime minister.

The preference by Ms Yeo and Mr Mansor for a PH-led government dovetailed with the view held by some analysts that young, urban voters tend to support Mr Anwar’s coalition.

As the country headed into its 15th GE last month, the needs and wants of this demographic had come under scrutiny, after a constitutional amendment to lower the voting age from 21 to 18 added millions of new voters to the electoral rolls.

In a commentary published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) earlier this year, political science professor Meredith Weiss from the University at Albany wrote that it is natural to think of youth as liberals championing for various causes, and this had led to speculation that the “expansion of the suffrage could push Malaysian politics sharply leftward”. 

The reality, however, is “far more complicated”, she said. 

While Malaysian youths have a long history of activism for left-wing or “progressive causes”, she noted that the 2018 GE also uncovered a significant share of young voters who backed the Islamist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) instead. 

Indeed, while the majority of urban youth voters whom TODAY spoke to in the wake of the hustings had been optimistic about PH taking the reins of government, political observers said these youngsters represent only one half of the youth story for GE2022. 

The other part is crafted by those who tend to vote more conservatively — mainly the Malay rural youth, whom experts said had voted largely for PN, based on anecdotal evidence.

At the time of writing, there has been no data publicly released by the Election Commission of Malaysia or studies by think tanks looking at the voting patterns according to demographics such as age and race.  

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE YOUTH VOTE

Of the 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs in the election, PH won 82 seats, the most among all the coalitions, with Mr Muhyiddin’s PN taking 73 seats.

The incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition — led by the once-powerful United Malays National Organisation (Umno) — won 30 seats, its poorest-ever showing in the elections.

This meant that none of the three coalitions had the 112 seats needed to form a government with a simple majority on their own — thus giving Malaysia its first hung Parliament in history. 

It was only after five days of political uncertainty — with both PN and PH jostling to woo rival politicians and their parties to their respective camps to form a majority — and intervention by Malaysia's king, Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah, that Mr Anwar was announced as the country’s 10th prime minister.  

Amid the chaos and drama, questions arose as to how the vote of Malaysian youths, aged 18 and 35, had affected the results.

Instead of the youth vote being a straightforward case of left-leaning tendencies — as some pundits had thought — preliminary assessments suggested that the vote had been divided between conservative and progressive camps. The split very much mirrored the share of votes gained by PN and PH, both on the opposite ends of the political spectrum.

Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with Singapore’s Institute of International Affairs, said that though the official analysis of the voting data has not been published yet, it is “safe to say youth vote did impact the results”.  

“Those voting for the conservative versus the progressive ends of the political spectrum are at least comparable,” he said.

In the Malaysian context, the progressive camp refers to those who focus on governance and anti-corruption, and shun racism and religious bigotry. The conservative camp embraces more ethnic Malay-Muslim views. 

Elected Members of Parliament (MPs) across the political divide, who were privy to the raw voting figures in their respective constituencies, largely agreed with Dr Oh.  

PH’s Adam Adli told TODAY that within the urban polling stations within his constituency of Hang Tuah Jaya in Melaka, there were more youth votes for him and his party. 

The 33-year-old said that he was privy to the number of votes he received in each polling station where the votes were divided roughly according to age groups. The younger age groups in urban areas made up a larger proportion of his votes compared to the others, he said. 

However, he said that this was “not necessarily true” in rural areas within his constituency, where he saw a significantly lower proportion of younger voters. 

Similar youth voting patterns were observed for PN candidate Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal.

Mr Wan Fayhsal, 35, emerged victorious in Machang, Kelantan, which is relatively more rural, and has a higher Malay demographic. 

He said over a phone interview that he and his coalition had won a “massive swing of new votes” — based on the numbers presented to him at each polling station, he said that PN had swept virtually all of the youth votes. 

The big divide in the youth vote has contributed to what experts have described as a “new stage in Malaysian politics” that is more fractured than ever. 

Indeed, Islamist PAS, a PN member, is now the biggest single party in Parliament with 49 seats, while PH’s component party, the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party, is second-largest with 40 seats.  However, it was not to say that all constituencies followed the same voting patterns.

Over at Muar, elected MP Syed Saddiq, who is from PH-affliated party Muda, said that he had seen the youth votes in his constituency largely go to either his party, or PN, with BN lagging "far behind". 

However, the 29-year-old said he noticed that youths in both the sub-urban and rural areas in Muar had voted for him, and this was the same for the PN candidate Abdullah Husin, 61, who also had a substantial number of votes from urban areas.

"That shows me that the young voters are very dynamic in nature, because despite the fact that PN fielded a really old ustaz (religious teacher), the fact that young voters would still end up voting for him really shows the maturity of the electorate," he said.

WHAT YOUNG RURAL VOTERS SAY 

Young rural voters told TODAY that they had voted for parties linked to PN, such as PAS, largely due to a perceived lack of alternatives — the other coalitions were either marred by corruption scandals or were not seen as champions of the Malay race. 

PAS supporter Nik Hafizuddin, 20, believes the Islamist party and its coalition PN are free from the corruption scandals that have dogged BN, and have a clear focus on preserving Malay rights and Islamic values — issues which he feels have been neglected by Mr Anwar's PH coalition. 

The polytechnic student who had voted in Kuala Krai, Kelantan, said that he knows PAS is “clean” as he had been watching campaign material on social media featuring the party's candidates and had fact-checked their claims online. 

“I also voted PAS because they uphold Malay and Muslim rights more compared to other candidates or parties who denigrate Muslim rights,” he said. 

While it is important for all races to “live together harmoniously”, Mr Hafizuddin added that problems occur when other parties or races want to “reduce Malay rights”, such as by lobbying for the removal of the Jawi script from education syllabus. 

“This is what makes Malays angry,” he said. 

The need to protect Malay interests and Islamic values was evident among young PN supporters. 

Civil servant Zaim Irsyad, 38, said that he had not always been a PAS supporter, having been “on the fence” since he comes from Selangor, which has been a PH-dominated state. 

Over the last three elections, however, he began to see the need for a strong government that is both free of corruption and stands up for Malay rights, which is why he began voting for PAS. While he used to vote in Selangor, he now votes in Pasir Puteh, Kelantan. 

He clarified that those who support PAS should not be seen as doing it solely for the “Islamic cause”. 

“I studied in a (secular) school, but I still vote for PAS. Among Malays, there are many who do not have a background in Islamic schools, but they still think of the survival of the Malay race and Islam," he said. 

He added that for many young Malays like himself, there is simply no other choice than PN, as he feels that BN — the long-time ruling coalition before it first lost power in 2018 — had squandered its chances to win the Malay vote. 

Mr Zaim pointed to the cases of graft that have plagued BN, most notably involving Mr Zahid Hamidi, its chairman and also Umno chief, who is still facing corruption charges.

Mr Zahid's predecessor Najib Razak, who was also Malaysia's prime minister from 2009 to 2018, is currently serving a prison term for corruption. 

“As young Malay voters, we will look at the leader who wants to drive the government, and in this process will also look into their integrity,” Mr Zaim said. 

Other than voting down religious or racial lines based on their own beliefs, some young rural voters are happy to just vote the same parties that their families or communities tend to vote. 

Ms Amelia Karim, 26, whom TODAY spoke to before polling day, said that she would be voting for the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition at her Tuaran constituency in Sabah.

She had said that she planned to vote for GRS because the rest of her village will likely be doing so. 

"At Tuaran, (the community) used to vote for Hajiji (GRS' chairman ) and GRS campaigns also promoted Hajiji... So far we don’t see anyone else (campaigning), just him," she said.  

FACTORS BEHIND POLARISED YOUTH VOTE 

Political observers highlighted several factors behind the progressive-conservative split in the youth vote.

• Social Media 

Social media was key in polarising young voters, especially in helping PN do exceptionally well among young Malay voters, said the observers. 

A key difference from the 2018 GE was that the conservative parties during this year’s polls had much greater success in rallying support from young voters through social media.  

Dr Bridget Welsh, an analyst from the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, said that PN’s success was partly due to the clever use of TikTok and social media influencers to spread its messages. 

“The effective framing of the PN campaign (meant that) many were not even aware that PAS was part of PN, they voted against Umno and in favour of less corruption and stability,” she said.

During the hustings, several TikTok posts, mostly from the PN camp, had gone viral. 

Most notable was a fan account featuring PN leader Muhyiddin dancing to the hit rap song “Swipe”, which racked up four million views in a single day. 

PN also had help from several celebrities and influencers who promoted the coalition on their platforms. 

Actress Mawar Rashid, who has close to one million followers on TikTok and about 3.5 million followers on Instagram, posted a video on both platforms of herself wearing a PN shirt, feigning ignorance when asked who she would be voting for on Nov 19.

The post garnered seven million and 1.4 million views on TikTok and Instagram respectively. 

Hashtags such as #pnbest, #perikatannasional and #bersihdanstabil (clean and stable) also received millions of views on TikTok during the two-week campaigning period. 

Aside from fun and quirky content online, there were also ones that promoted divisions along racial and religious lines, with the potential to stoke ill-will among young voters, said the observers.

For instance, a portion of a speech by Mr Muhyiddin during his campaign was shared on TikTok, with the PN leader making unsubstantiated claims that the rival PH alliance was colluding with “groups of Jews and Christians” whose aim was to convert Malay Muslims.

SIIA’s Dr Oh said that he observed that “quite a number” of young voters had been “enamoured by the TikTok propaganda generated by the conservative camp”. 

“The TikTok videos appeared to have employed somewhat alluring influencers to emphasise voting for PN such that race and religion could be preserved and promoted,” he said.

“This could be particularly alluring to youngsters who were long inculcated with racialist and religious sentiments, and are at times lonely and bored.” 

Mr Wan Fayhsal, the elected PN MP for Machang who is also the deputy youth chief of PN and youth chief of component party Bersatu, said that while the coalition did post some of its speeches and videos of rallies on its Facebook page, most of the viral content that had surfaced on TikTok was the result of fan accounts and posts from supporters themselves. 

“I am aware that the (rivals) accuses us of paying the youth,” said Mr Wan Fayhsal. “We didn’t pay anyone, most of the support and the videos posted by the youths were done voluntarily.” 

He believes that there is a clear partisan separation in social media consumption, with PH supporters dominating the Twitter space, while PN was tops in the TikTok arena. 

“The liberals, their discourse very much dominates Twitter, but the majority of social media users are using Facebook and TikTok,” he added. “They (PH) have failed to read this undercurrent.” 

Referring to claims that some of the pro-PN content could be seen as racially and religiously divisive, Mr Wan Fayhsal said: “Most of the statements have been misquoted, taken out of context, with the accusations against us unfounded.” 

He said that as much as the “liberals” believe that race and religion should not be raised, these issues are part and parcel of the “social fabric” of Malaysian society and should be addressed. 

“When people talk about how religion and race affect politics, it’s a fact and not a fiction, we are not going to be apologetic about it,” he said.  

However, he said that while PN is not shy to address sensitive issues, it draws a line at hate speech. For instance, a PAS youth chief, Mr Shahiful Nasirhad, said during an election rally that those who do not vote for PN would “go to hell”.

“I will go against anyone from my party that makes radical statements,” he said, adding that Mr Shahiful has since been suspended from the party.

• Political education 

Malaysia’s educational system does not equip its students with sufficient political knowledge, which means that they are often left to find out about politics on their own, said the observers interviewed. 

This has become more evident in GE2022, compared to the elections in 2018, with approximately 1.4 million voters between the age of 18 and 20 being able to vote this year. This was the first time that Malaysians of this age group — many of whom would still be studying — could vote. 

Dr Serina Rahman, a lecturer at the department of Southeast Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, said: “Ideally, there should be national education in the sense that youth learn about what it means to vote, campaign and serve the people.

“But in reality, this 'education' is biased and written by the winners… so there is no guarantee that there is no misinformation being taught.” 

Agreeing, Mr Mansor, the Muar voter, said that his formal education was insufficient in helping him make an informed decision on who to vote for, and he had to learn about politics through his own initiative. 

In fact, the PH supporter said that during his university days, he had been a “strong believer that Umno could lead this nation”. 

“But when you are exposed to a lot more people…and when you can do your own research… it seemed to me that the Umno leaders lost track and became irrelevant, and fuelled by corruption,” he said.

The lack of political education among the average Malaysian has prompted non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to kickstart initiatives to educate youths on the democratic process. 

One such NGO is Undi18, which had successfully advocated for the minimum voting age to be lowered from 21 to 18. 

Its co-founder and education director Qyira Yusri said that the group has been trying to better educate young voters so that they make informed decisions, but knows it can only do so much. 

“We have been consistent in calling out the education system for being not adaptive… and resistant to changes,” she said. “This leaves young people with no choice, but to get their political information through social media, such as through the usage of TikTok.”

“We don’t have systems in school to teach young people how to get unbiased information or how to factcheck, or identify hate speech (and) it cannot be just the job of the NGOs to educate the entire country."  

• Impact of Covid-19

Another key difference between previous elections and GE2022 is the impact of Covid-19, which had led to political and economic uncertainties for Malaysians.

Mr Muhyiddin’s PN government had taken the reins at the start of the pandemic in March 2020, but it proved to be short-lived. He stepped down and handed power to a BN government just 17 months later in August 2021, amid perceived failures to curb rising Covid-19 infections and deaths as well as mitigate the pandemic’s severe economic impact. 

The turmoil of the past two years had led to frustrations among the electorate, especially the young, said the observers. 

Mr Kevin Zhang, a senior research officer in the Malaysia Studies Programme at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said that those aged between 18 and 24 were especially impacted, with many in that age group having just started out their careers. 

“If you look at the median income numbers and unemployment numbers, those below 24, it has created a lot of discontent among Malay youths for BN,” he said. 

He added that the BN-led post-pandemic recovery for this age group has been the slowest compared to other age groups. 

“Essentially, the pay gap between those in the 18-24 compared to those in mid- 30s is large and it doesn’t seem that the gap has narrowed, or it has even widened,” said Mr Zhang. 

Mr Adli, the elected PH MP, agreed that economic hardship also meant that young voters were moving away from the incumbent government, in the hope for change. 

He said that the economic concerns are more apparent in those that have moved to live in urban areas. 

“For instance, you can have someone who hails from (a rural area), once they move to Kuala Lumpur, they will start seeing things from a different perspective, and understand the problems plaguing Malaysia such as jobs, transport, the economy," said Mr Adli. 

“The moment young people start working, and have to pay (the bills), that’s when they start realising… they have to choose between sentiments and real actual solutions."

POTENTIAL REPERCUSSIONS OF POLARISED YOUTH

With the youth vote more split than ever, the outlook for the nation is a gloomy one, some observers argued. 

Dr Oh said that the youth voting patterns signal a “rather grim” future, as it has become clear that instead of being more progressive like the youth of other societies, a large proportion appear to be “even more conservative than their elders”. 

“It represents an unexpected dusk in Malaysian politics, as from now on, religious discourse and race supremacy will be front and centre in Malaysian political development,” he added. 

Mr Zhang believes that the shift of youth votes away from BN and towards PN signals a “gradual decline of Malay nationalism”, replaced by a growing Islamic loyalty, as solidified by the PAS “green wave”.

Mr Zhang said that this could be the result of the Islamic education curriculum gaining prominence in Malaysia in the '80s and '90s. 

“We now have a generation of relatively young Malays who have gone through that system, and have a greater base of islamic discourse… They vote with a very religious lens," he added. 

The voting patterns also suggested that many of the youths had voted out of frustration given the poor economic situation. 

The observers noted that should the economy continue to falter under the new government, frustrations of the young voters will be made known again in the next GE. 

Dr Welsh said the government has to put more focus on “immediate bread and butter issues”. 

“If a government does not perform, it will be kicked out, as youths expect deliverables, especially on the economy," she added. 

Looking ahead, one can also expect all parties to contest the social media space more keenly, taking a page from gains by PAS and PN during GE2022. 

Undi18’s Ms Qyira said: “I think in this election, PN had gotten ahead of everyone else. If (parties) want to control the narrative, it’s about understanding the medium, and how they want to communicate their message.” 

For instance, issues related to good governance and anti-corruption are positive messaging that can help a political party, but oftentimes there is not enough knowledge on how to capitalise on trends or different platforms to get young people to consume these messages. 

Overall, the trends affecting the youth vote in GE2022 will be the ones that Malaysia will continue to face in the next few decades. 

Professor James Chin from the Asian Studies department at the University of Tasmania said that the assumption that younger generations will tend to be more progressive cannot be applied to the Malaysian context. 

“Why would you assume that the younger voters will be less racial or less religious minded? The schools that they’ve been going to in the last 10 to 15 years have been the same, so there shouldn’t be any difference,” he said.   

BRINGING THE COUNTRY TOGETHER 

With an increasingly polarised future on the cards, it is more important than ever for political parties to work together and make compromises for the good of the country, said the observers. 

NUS’ Dr Serina said that while all parties may have different ideologies and goals, they should have a common baseline of wanting the best for the nation through transparent and good governance. 

“The difference is how they intend to achieve their goals and whether they intend to pander to or inflame more intolerant and rigid supporters who only want to see one way of doing things,” she said.  

She noted that in politics, be in Malaysia or many other countries, it is common to see personalities emerge with the intent of gaining or holding on to power for personal gains, and this could get in the way of “larger, more benevolent goals”.

One thing that the voting patterns of the youths have shown is that they are willing to punish politicians — even established ones — whom they see as no longer serving the people’s interests. 

For instance, 97-year-old political heavyweight and former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad lost his seat at Langkawi, along with his electoral deposit in this GE. 

Political analysts have said previously that voters were ready to move on from Dr Mahathir's heavy-handed approach to politics. 

“The moral of the story (is that politicians) should work harder to improve the lot of the people and the economy, instead of holding out for their personal benefit,” said Dr Serina.

“They should ideally make the compromises to ensure that they can continue to get voted in.” 

Muar MP Syed Saddiq said that indeed, there needs to be an "institution mindset" rather than a "personality mindset" in order to move Malaysia politics forward. 

"Once you empower institutions, treat the opposition fairly... I think all of these allows for the country to heal, because it shows that whoever is in Government, Malaysia will still be on the right footing," he said.  

He added that there is also a need for both the opposition and the incumbent unity government to work together and steer Malaysia out of the economic uncertainty. 

Agreeing with his fellow MP, Mr Wan Fayhsal from PN said that his party, even as the opposition, can facilitate the transition to a more stable government.

“We would like to be a constructive opposition… We will come up with a good shadow Cabinet, focus on the issues that matter, so that we can be the check and balance,” he said.  

While a unity government — comprising bedfellows with different dreams — is likely to be fraught with problems that may even threaten its stability, some of the young Malaysians interviewed still believe that it offers the nation a chance for a fresh start — a break from the one-party dominant system of yesteryears which they think had not served the people’s interests well. 

Accountant Ethan Tan, 26, said that in the past when a single coalition — be it BN or PH  — had formed the government, the outcomes had not been the best for the country. 

“But this time, we can see two to three parties having a similar number of seats, so if (one party) does anything wrong, the other side can help to reveal what that party is doing,” said the voter from Ayer Hitam, Johor. 

“I think this is the correct call for Malaysian democracy, where no one party has the majority.”