SINGAPORE — All eyes are on Dr Tsai Ing-wen as she makes her inauguration speech today as the new Taiwanese President, with China in particular closely watching what she says or does not say on cross-strait ties.

More than three months after leading her pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to a landslide win in both the presidential and legislative elections, Dr Tsai will be sworn in this morning at a ceremony attended by Taiwanese leaders and foreign dignitaries.

It is her inauguration speech, though — which she is slated to make slightly after 11am — that will be the focus of global attention. Dr Tsai will have to tread lightly between the expectations of her domestic audience — whose sense of national identity and self-determination is growing — and the Chinese government in Beijing.

“There is no doubt that President Tsai will have to balance her speech between its principal audience — the Taiwanese people who elected her — and China, plus the international community,” Mr J Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior non-resident fellow with the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute, told TODAY.

“That will be difficult, no doubt, but ultimately she answers to her people first, and her people have made it very clear that they have no interest in ‘one China’, let alone being part of the PRC (People’s Republic of China),” said Mr Cole, who was until recently a senior officer at a think-tank launched by Dr Tsai. “Still, I’d expect some reassuring, if perhaps subtle, signals to Beijing.”

Dr Tsai takes over after eight years of warm cross-strait ties under outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou.

Taiwan has been self-ruled since it split from the mainland in 1949 following a civil war. Beijing regards the island as a renegade province, to be taken back by force if necessary.

A key milestone for cross-strait relations was in 1992, when both sides came to a tacit understanding on a formula for engaging each other. The “1992 consensus” states there is only one undivided China, but it allows each side to interpret the notion of “one China” as it deems fit.

Beijing has demanded Dr Tsai explicitly accept the one China principle. Instead, Dr Tsai has insisted she will maintain the status quo in cross-strait ties and do so in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name. According to the Taiwanese Constitution, the existence of one China is implied. The DPP has also stated that it does not recognise the existence of the 1992 consensus, while acknowledging that there was a meeting between the two sides in 1992.

Beijing and Taipei are on a collision course as the DPP has drafted a new Bill requiring government officials to get legislative consent before, during and after any talks with Beijing.

They are also not allowed to sign any agreements with China before all three stages of legislative approval are completed. Critics say that this will paralyse cross-strait ties.

Analysts interviewed by TODAY said that Dr Tsai is likely to steer clear of directly mentioning one China or the 1992 consensus in her speech so as not to stoke cross-strait tensions.

“She (Dr Tsai) will not take a provocative position such as pro-Taiwan independence and not mention anything referring to one China, such as the one China principle or the 1992 consensus,” said Professor Kou Chien-wen of the department of political science at the National Chengchi University in Taiwan. “She is more likely to recognise the fact of the 1992 meeting and the ROC Constitution and practices and call for both sides to jointly maintain peace.”

Dr Wu Shang-su, an S Rajaratnam School of International Studies research fellow who previously worked at Taiwan’s National Defence University and the Legislative Yuan added that “a hardline approach would be the last option for Tsai due to Taiwan’s economic and military vulnerability”. He noted that the island’s economy is now more connected to the mainland than ever, and its military has been under-invested for at least a decade.

How is Beijing likely to react to Dr Tsai’s inauguration speech?

“Of course, China will not be happy if she fails to mention the 1992 consensus or one China,” noted Dr Chen Sy-shyan, a political science professor at National Taiwan University.

“But to be more prudent they are likely to wait and see what Tsai will actually do subsequently since this minimalist-style speech is not the worst they could expect once the DPP is in power.”

More than 700 foreign guests from 59 countries, including Taiwan’s 22 diplomatic allies, will be attending the inauguration, according to the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry.

The first to arrive was Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine on Tuesday, said the Foreign Ministry yesterday.

Other high-level attendees include King Mswati III of Swaziland, President Horacio Cartes of Paraguay, President Taneti Mamau of Kiribati, President Baron Waqa of Nauru, and President Tommy Remengesau of Palau.