Abe risks public backlash in rush to revise Constitution

Mr Shinzo Abe wants as his legacy a revision to the pacifist Constitution that has defined Japan since World War II — but the public’s tepid response to his sudden push for change suggests it could instead become his undoing.

Japan’s conservatives — including Mr Abe — view the existing charter as a humiliation imposed by the United States on a defeated country and think revising it is essential to making Japan a “normal country” again.

The prime minister has jolted Japanese politics by setting the Tokyo Olympic year of 2020 as a deadline. He has also ditched the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) previous proposal on what a revision should look like.

The danger is that while the Constitution is important, virtually nobody agrees with Mr Abe that the matter is urgent. The more he pushes the pace, therefore, the greater the risk of a public backlash.

“A constitutional revision is no small issue. It’s a huge issue. It will take time and we have to follow the democratic procedures precisely,” says Mr Hiroshi Ogushi, a member of parliament and head of policy research for the opposition Democratic party.

“I question whether the Constitution is really such a pressing issue. How to fix the economy, an ageing society, falling population, what to do about social security, the public finances — aren’t those the more urgent issues for the public?”

Article 9 of the country’s postwar Constitution states that the Japanese people “forever renounce war”.

Changing it requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament — something the LDP, with its coalition partners, possesses — followed by a majority in a referendum.

Mr Abe’s pragmatic plan is for small changes that are hard to oppose but set a precedent for future revision of Article 9.

In particular, he wants to add a clause clearly stating the legality of Japan’s existing Self-Defence Forces, which is currently a grey area.

“In our generation we need to establish the constitutional standing of the Self-Defence Forces so that there is no room for debate on whether or not they stand outside the Constitution,” Mr Abe said last month.

The prime minister’s call on the Constitution came in his capacity as party leader. Several people in the ruling LDP said it was a personal decision made without much consultation among ministerial colleagues.

Although the LDP has rallied around the move, several potential successors to Mr Abe are unhappy, showing how the issue could sap his authority.

“I don’t think we need an immediate revision of Article 9,” said Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida at a meeting of his LDP faction shortly after the prime minister’s announcement.

Mr Abe needs backing from his coalition partners in Komeito, which draws its support from Buddhist voters.

Komeito is interested in adding new rights, in areas such as privacy or a clean environment, but its voters generally support the pacifist Constitution.

“The right to propose constitutional change lies with Parliament, so Parliament must have a thorough debate. That means not just the LDP and the ruling parties, but reaching a certain consensus with the opposition as well,” says Mr Isamu Ueda, a Komeito MP. “It’s hard to say how that will play out.”

The prime minister will also need votes from the minor Japan Innovation Party (JIP), so has embraced its calls for a constitutional right to free education, including higher education, which is currently fee-paying.

“Free education, local government, administrative reform — at this point we’re considering what to prioritise,” says Mr Nobuyuki Baba, secretary-general of the JIP, which draws most of its votes from the Osaka area. But while free education has obvious attractions to the public, it creates political risks. Mr Abe is already under pressure to say where he will find the trillions of yen in new tax revenues that will be needed to pay for it.

His greatest enemy is the clock — the 2020 deadline risks making his plan look like a vanity project.

Mr Takao Toshikawa, editor-in-chief of the political newsletter Tokyo Insideline, suspects Mr Abe is in even more of a hurry. Next year, Mr Toshikawa points out, is the 150th anniversary of the Meiji Constitution, marking the start of modern Japan.

The emperor is expected to abdicate at the end of the year. A constitutional revision would add up to a grand statement of national renewal.

“If he can, I think Mr Abe would like to hold a referendum on the same day as lower house elections next year,” Mr Toshikawa says.

Push for such an aggressive timetable, however, and Mr Abe risks getting no constitutional revision at all.FINANCIAL TIMES

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Robin Harding is The Financial Times’ Japan bureau chief.