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Bibi wins again in Israel, but at what cost to Middle East peace process?

Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, the embattled Israeli Prime Minister, appeared poised to win his fourth consecutive term (and fifth overall) in Tuesday’s (April 9) elections. The results point to deep changes in Israeli society, and its repercussions will be felt well beyond the Jewish state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is greeted by supporters of his Likud party as he arrives to speak following the announcement of exit polls in Israel's parliamentary election at the party headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 10, 2019.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is greeted by supporters of his Likud party as he arrives to speak following the announcement of exit polls in Israel's parliamentary election at the party headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 10, 2019.

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Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, the embattled Israeli Prime Minister, appeared poised to win his fourth consecutive term (and fifth overall) in Tuesday’s (April 9) elections. Although results showed him in a virtual dead heat with his chief rival, former Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, Mr Netanyahu’s Likud Party has a clear path towards forming a coalition government.

If, as expected, he goes on to form the government, Mr Netanyahu will become the longest serving Israeli prime minister since Israel’s founding father, David Ben-Gurion. The results point to deep changes in Israeli society, and its repercussions will be felt well beyond the Jewish state.

Tuesday’s election marked the first time the premier had gone up against opponents from the country’s defence establishment — in fact, in addition to Mr Gantz, he faced off against two other former IDF heads: Moshe Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi — since he took on Ehud Barak in 1999 and lost badly.

His victory this time indicates that the military establishment no longer dominates Israeli life as it did in the past, but, more importantly, shows that religion and settlement in the West Bank (which the right refers to by its Biblical name, “Judea and Samaria”) are issues that resonate most with a plurality of voters.

That being the case, Mr Netanyahu will be expected to follow through on his pre-election promise, made last weekend, to extend Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank if he wins the election.

This will have far-reaching consequences.

Annexation, in whatever form it takes, would likely kill off the prospects of establishing a Palestinian state, and thus put paid to the two-state solution to end the world’s most intractable conflict — a solution supported by most of the world, including Singapore.

Annexation also amounts to a flagrant violation of international law, which would set a dangerous precedent for other territorial disputes.

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Unrest in the West Bank and Gaza would also follow, which could lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and result in the Israeli military having to impose control in the West Bank, an action that senior military commanders and others have warned against because it could alter the very complexion of the Jewish state and create enormous security risks.

Mr Netanyahu knows this, which is why he opposed annexing the West Bank in his previous term.

His election pledge, then, was, in effect, a last throw of the dice.

Now, as he bids to form a coalition, he may try to trade the passage of annexation laws for retroactive immunity from prosecution in the corruption cases against him.

Annexing the West Bank would also pose a dilemma for Israel’s claim to be the only democracy in the Middle East.

Those who are pushing for annexation do not propose to extend voting rights to the 2.8 million Palestinians who inhabit the West Bank.

Rather, they only propose giving Israeli citizens inhabiting the settlements the right to vote. And very little was said in the election about what to do with the 1.8 million Palestinians who inhabit the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinians contend that their situation resembles apartheid, the system of institutionalised racial oppression that was practised in South Africa until 1994.

But with United States President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin backing Mr Netanyahu to the hilt, it is not clear whether the opprobrium of apartheid stirs the moral conscience of humankind anymore.

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The Palestinian Authority contends that the settlements, which they refer to as “colonies”, have been illegally established on their lands.

In 2016, the Obama administration supported a United Nations Security Council Resolution which reaffirmed that the establishment of Israeli settlements constitutes a flagrant violation of international law.

It also said that the settlements were a major obstacle to the achievement of the two-state solution and a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.

The Trump administration, by contrast, has empowered Mr Netanyahu.

President Donald Trump has turned a blind eye to Israel’s settlement activities.

In January 2018, construction began in Amichai, the first new settlement to be built after the Oslo Interim Agreement since the construction of Har Homa in 1996. In the last year, Israel has announced plans to build many more settlements in the West Bank.

Not only has Mr Trump turned a blind eye to Israel’s settlement activities, he has endorsed Israel’s annexation of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.

After he recognised the Golan Heights, many pundits worried that the West Bank might be next, a premonition that came true when Mr Netanyahu made his pre-election pledge.

Fears that the US would not block the move grew following the silence of US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo when he was asked about the Israeli leader’s comments.

The $64,000 question is whether Mr Netanyahu has been given advance notice of Mr Trump’s much vaunted “deal of the century” for Middle East peace.

Talk is rife that the plan will be unveiled once the election results have been finalised, but before Mr Netanyahu forms a government.

The Palestinians are sceptical about the plan and want nothing to do with it. They fear that Mr Trump has concocted a deal with the Israeli PM to present them with a fait accompli.

Only time will tell, but the omens do not look good for them.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Victor Kattan is a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore.

Related topics

Netanyahu Israel Middle East

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