Change amid continuity in upcoming leadership change and next GE

In electing its 35th Central Executive Committee (CEC) on Sunday (Nov 10), the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) signalled that Singapore’s political leadership renewal and succession has crossed another milestone. While there is still no clarity on who will succeed Mr Lee Hsien Loong in the party and as prime minister, the intent was to show that the fourth-generation of leaders are making good progress and are equal to the task of governing Singapore in the years ahead.

The retirement of five party stalwarts, including party chairman Khaw Boon Wan and assistant secretaries-general (ASGs) Teo Chee Hean and Tharman Shamugaratnam (all Coordinating Ministers in Singapore’s Cabinet; Mr Teo and Mr Shanmugaratnam are also Deputy Prime Ministers), is intended to demonstrate the PAP’s confidence in the 4G leaders, and that leadership renewal and succession are in high gear and proceeding apace.

The stage is therefore set for one or two 4G leaders to be appointed ASG, traditionally regarded as the seat for the heir-apparent. The “race” to succeed PM Lee will likely narrow when the CEC positions are announced, and this may even take place well before 2018 draws to a close.

In addressing the party cadres, Mr Lee, who is the party secretary-general, took the opportunity to reiterate the importance of a smooth, uneventful leadership transition. Another related theme is that of change amid continuity.

The CEC election outcome, while dramatic in some aspects, is not one that we should read too much into. Mr Teo, Mr Shanmugaratnam and Mr Khaw will continue to be influential and be consulted within the party and the Cabinet. The point to note is that the focal point must now shift decisively from the 3G to the 4G – within the ruling party and, soon, in the Cabinet.

All eyes are now on which positions Mr Chan Chun Sing, Mr Heng Swee Keat, and Mr Ong Ye Kung — widely regarded as frontrunners to succeed Mr Lee — will hold in the new CEC, as this could indicate who will be the 4G Prime Minister. (There is speculation that Mr Ong is not in the running as he was not one of seven proposed by the last PAP CEC to the party cadres for the internal election.)

If only one of them is made ASG, then it would appear that the 4G team has decided who among them should be first among equals. If not, the clearer indication would be from the Cabinet reshuffle next year.

Going by precedent, the successor to Mr Lee will be appointed Deputy Prime Minister in the penultimate phase of the leadership renewal. With Mr Lee indicating that the party has two years at most to prepare for the next general election, leadership renewal takes on greater urgency.

The Cabinet reshuffle is unlikely to be dramatic even if Mr Lee's successor is made known. Until the 4G leadership comes into their own, Mr Lee is likely to opt for a judicious balance of experience and expertise as well as new blood and new ideas attuned for a different generation. One or both DPMs may make way for the 4G leaders and become Senior Ministers or remain as Coordinating Ministers.

The pace of change will be slightly more measured for the Cabinet given that the reach of the government and party is different. Singaporean voters and foreign investors would like to have some familiarity and assurance that there is change amid continuity. An “all change” at the highest levels of government could be unnecessarily unsettling and politically imprudent.

SHIFTING INTO ELECTION MODE

On Sunday, Mr Lee rallied his party to “win the next general election convincingly.” The next general election, which must be held by April 2021, will be a watershed one.

Coming on the back of an unexpected good showing at the 2015 general election and the desire to have the 4G leadership get off to a good start, the ruling party has its work cut out for it.

Time is of the essence for the PAP government. They will have to assure Singaporeans that potentially hot-button issues like decaying public housing leases, concerns over inequality and social mobility, and economic disruption fears are being addressed. In addition, the PAP will have to imbue confidence that better years still lie ahead for Singapore and Singaporeans.

With an eye on and a concern over growing divisive politics in other countries, Mr Lee affirmed that “a pragmatic and centrist approach in our politics and in our policies” is the governance lodestar.

Besides leadership renewal proceeding apace, this message of moderate politics was aimed at Singaporeans. Pointing to Britain, America and Germany, Mr Lee observed that polarised and poisonous politics can cause countries to go into a downward spiral with voters losing trust and confidence in politics and politicians, particularly with mainstream, moderate political parties. This then makes the agendas of populist or radical groups attractive.

How this message of the imperative of centrist politics, denominated by pragmatic policies, consensus making, and privileging the greater good will resonate with Singaporeans will be crucial as a new generation of political leaders, politicians and voters navigate and remake the political landscape.

2019 marks 60 years of the PAP’s coming into power and coincides with the bicentennial commemoration of the founding of modern Singapore. The festivities will also dwell on Singapore’s formative years as a regional hub as far back as the 14th century. It remains to be seen how the Singapore Bicentennial, billed as the “prequel” to Singapore’s Golden Jubilee in 2015, will bolster the PAP’s electoral appeal as it gears up for the next general election.

What is clear is that the PAP and Mr Lee will seek a convincing electoral victory. How they do so matters significantly. Will they persuade Singaporeans that centrist politics and policies is the way to go when identity and nativist politics and short-term thinking are on the rise elsewhere?

Beyond the PAP’s cadres’ show of confidence, the appeal of the 4G leadership hinges on whether Singaporeans will repose their trust, confidence, and faith in the PAP. The 4G team’s vision, policies, and leadership style will invariably feature in the minds of voters as the ruling party seeks a fresh mandate from Singaporeans.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Eugene K B Tan is an associate professor at the School of Law, Singapore Management University and former Nominated Member of Parliament.