Commentary: What a potential Tharman presidency could mean for Singapore’s incoming leadership

The announcement that Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam intends to run for the Singapore presidency took many by surprise, and has generated much chatter about the potential impact on the political scene, the impending presidential election, and even the next general election. 

But it is worthwhile to consider the longer-term effect of his decision and, if elected, his assumption of the role of president and its impact on the country’s leadership transition, expected to take place in the next few years. 

Singapore faces a general election before November 2025, with many pundits expecting it to take place sooner. 

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has declared his intention to hand over to Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, in the country’s first leadership transition in some 20 years. 

All eyes, both domestically and internationally, will be on the incoming prime minister and the leadership team he will form, collectively dubbed the 4G or fourth-generation leaders. 

While the role of the president is above politics, a potential President Tharman Shanmugaratnam will likely have an impact on the direction of the country, through the dynamics between him and the new leaders, and how voters view the executive and the elected presidency in tandem. 

A GLOBAL HEAVYWEIGHT

It would be an understatement to say that Mr Tharman is a heavyweight domestically and internationally, in terms of his experience and accomplishments. 

Currently serving as Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for Social Policies, he is also chairman of the Singapore central bank. 

He has also been Deputy Prime Minister, education minister, finance minister and Coordinating Minister for Economic and Social Policies since he joined politics in 2001, and has been deputy chairman of sovereign wealth fund GIC, among other major roles. 

Internationally, he has led several international councils focused on economic and financial reforms. 

He chaired a G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance, and co-chaired a High-Level Independent Panel on Global Financing focused on pandemic preparedness and response for the grouping. 

He also chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the key policy forum of the International Monetary Fund, for four years, and was the first Asian to take on the role. 

Significantly, he was elected to that position by a grouping of his international peers, indicating the high esteem in which he is held around the world. Previously, he was also the chairman of the Group of Thirty, an independent global council of leading economic and financial policy-makers. 

Beyond contributing to global organisations with his experience and expertise, Mr Tharman’s international roles have enhanced Singapore’s credibility and reputation, ensuring that the small country remains relevant and attractive to investors and the global community as a whole. 

A BOON FOR THE 4G 

Comparatively, the next generation of Singapore leaders has not had the years of experience and accomplishments of Mr Tharman and his 3G colleagues. 

His role as president would thus be important when it comes to shoring up Singapore’s reputation in the years ahead, given his standing and the respect he commands from the international community. 

For the 4G leaders, this could potentially mean the presence of a senior statesman-like figure as the president who would already be equipped with the skills and experience to represent the country as they establish themselves in their own right. 

Mr Tharman’s international stature would also create opportunities for him to maintain and build ties with global partners that are essential for Singapore’s continued success on the international stage. 

At the same time, the president, as head of state, also exercises important custodial powers when it comes to approving the use of the country’s past reserves and making certain critical appointments. 

Though the president does not have direct sway on government policies or decisions, having a steady hand like Mr Tharman in the Istana may be reassuring to international observers, partners, investors and even voters who will be watching Singapore’s future direction under the new leadership. 

His wealth of experience when it comes to economics and finance and his track record in key positions in the Cabinet means that he is a known quantity in those areas, and will likely reinforce the view that Singapore will remain on a steady course going forward, with him being on hand to offer counsel when sought by the government. 

SHADE OF A BIG TREE

Acclaimed 19th-century Romanian artist and sculptor Constantin Brancusi once said: “Nothing grows well in the shade of a big tree.” 

With a leader of Mr Tharman’s stature as president, there is the possibility that he could cast a long shadow on incoming leaders of the country trying to find their feet, once the transition takes place. 

While the People’s Action Party government has always maintained that the strength of its leadership of the country stems from its team approach to governing as opposed to reliance on any one figure, the president’s role can be crucial, especially in times of crises such as the recent pandemic. 

Having as experienced and established a leader as Mr Tharman as president could be both a boon and a bane for the 4G leadership, given that he could play an important role in rallying or reassuring the people in difficult times. 

At the same time, his popularity and existing place in peoples’ hearts mean he could potentially outshine other leaders. 

He has been known to be an extremely popular leader to many Singaporeans, with a 2016 poll showing he was the top choice among respondents to be prime minister. 

Besides being viewed as fair and inclusive, a big factor is his known streak of independence, a point Mr Tharman alluded to when he spoke to reporters on Thursday (June 8), saying this trait would help him be a unifying figure as president for all Singaporeans. 

PM Lee, too, in his letter to Mr Tharman, said he believes the latter would exercise the president’s role with his “independence of mind”. 

One might argue — and some might even hope — that with someone of Mr Tharman’s stature, the odds are higher that he would offer differing and independent opinions on how Singapore should deal with challenges in an increasingly complex world. 

But could this independence of mind lead to public disagreements between him and the executive? Many still remember the open dispute between late President Ong Teng Cheong in the 1990s and the then government over access to information regarding Singapore’s reserves. 

The bigger question though is not whether there will be disagreements, but more on how both sides resolve them without it spilling over and negatively impacting the public's view of a fledgling executive and the presidency. 

It should be emphasised that there is no sign at all that there could be any conflict between Mr Tharman and his parliamentary colleagues, and the former avid sportsman and combined schools hockey player has been the epitome of a team player throughout his political career. 

Indeed, PM Lee credited Mr Tharman with helping him to mentor and groom the next generation of ministers in his role as Senior Minister. 

But as economists know well, the future can be hard to predict. The impending leadership transition has already been less than completely smooth following the stepping back of DPM Heng Swee Keat from the presumptive role as successor to PM Lee. 

Mr Tharman’s closeness to the incumbent government and his status as a PAP stalwart may also see him positioned as “the establishment candidate”, earning the ire of those who are less than satisfied with the ruling party. 

So while Mr Tharman has stated clearly that he hopes to be a unifying figure to ensure that the Singapore system remains strong, stakeholders would do well to continue to watch developments closely, as the upcoming presidential election plays out, and Singapore transitions to the 4G leadership team. 

The relationship between the next president and Cabinet will be a key factor to watch. 

Mr Tharman told reporters that he hopes to contribute amid a fundamentally more uncertain environment globally, leveraging on his ability, experiences and standing in economics, finance, and international affairs. 

Using a sporting analogy, he said he likes to “guard the pack” and “plan the game” stemming from his preference for defensive positions playing different sports in his schooling days.

These are skill sets Singaporeans will hope to see from Mr Tharman in achieving his aim of preserving and strengthening the Singapore system amid an increasingly complex and complicated world.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: 

Nicholas Fang is a former Nominated Member of Parliament. He is the founder and managing director of strategic consultancy Black Dot.