By picking conservative cleric as running mate, has Jokowi moved closer to securing another term?

After months of speculation, the candidates for Indonesia’s presidential election next year have finally been revealed. Not surprisingly, the presidential candidates remained incumbent president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his challenger for the second time, Prabowo Subianto. What is more surprising are the vice-presidential candidates they have chosen respectively.

In a dramatic turn of events, both President Jokowi and Mr Subianto bucked expectations and did not choose deputies that they were widely expected to pick.

Mafud MD, former chief justice of the Constitutional Court and respected Muslim scholar, was tipped to be the president’s top choice up to the last moment.

But instead, and to the shock of many, the president eventually declared conservative Muslim cleric Ma’ruf Amin his running mate.

Mr Amin is the chairman of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), Indonesia’s highest Muslim clerical body, and also the rais aam (supreme leader) of Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia’s largest Muslim organisation.

The shock has to do with the apparently incompatible images of the pair.

Mr Widodo is regarded as a moderate Muslim who embraces pluralism, while Mr Amin, as a prominent leader in MUI, was responsible for fatwa (religious orders) that were seen to be overly conservative and to promote intolerance.

Mr Amin was also a key figure in the December 2 2016 rally against Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the then governor of Jakarta, and later was an expert witness in a trial that sent Purnama behind bars for blasphemy against Islam. Incidentally, Purnama was an ally of Mr Widodo.

Yet, by pairing up with someone who has such impeccable Islamic credentials, Mr Widodo will become almost unassailable to black campaigns that accuse him of being too secular and not religious enough.

This was a problem that had plagued his last campaign in 2014, where he performed the Hajj in the midst of his campaign in order to deflect such accusations.

More recently, legal action against Rizieq Shihab, founder of the hardline Islamic Defenders Front, has led to smear campaigns throughout social media accusing the Jokowi government of “criminalising” ulama (Islamic scholar or leader).

Thus, the nomination of Mr Amin suggests that Mr Widodo respects and even trusts ulama to be a part of his next government, closing the seemingly unbridgeable gap between “ulama” and “umara” (government leaders or power holders).  

Moreover, by having Mr Amin as his partner on the electoral frontline, Mr Widodo’s campaign will take the edge off Mr Subianto’s ideological platform, which had so far served as a political rallying point for conservative Islam.

Mr Subianto’s allies, the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party and National Mandate Party, will find it more difficult to mobilise votes on the basis of an Islamic agenda.

The Prabowo Subianto camp also presented a surprise in its choice of vice-presidential candidate.

After former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his Democrat Party threw their support behind Mr Subianto’s coalition, the expectation was that the former president’s son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, might have gained the vice-presidential ticket.

However, Mr Subianto eventually chose fellow Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement Party) cadre Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno.

Mr Uno is a self-made multi-millionaire turned politician who last year became Jakarta’s deputy governor.

While the main contenders for the 2019 presidential election remain unchanged from five years ago, their choice of running mates suggests that the campaign drama will not be a mere repeat of 2014.

Mr Widodo’s strategic choice of Mr Amin has effectively compromised Mr Subianto’s Islamic trump card, and may even turn the tide for him in conservative provinces that had supported Mr Subianto, such as Banten and West Java.

Although there are concerns that choosing Mr Amin may alienate religious and ethnic minority constituencies that had stood solidly behind Mr Widodo, it is unlikely that these will now flock to the more conservative Mr Subianto.

However, this may lead to a higher golput or vote abstention rate to express disillusionment among the electorate.

With a solid defence line drawn on the religious front, Mr Widodo will be more prone to attack on the economic front.

Economic growth under his watch has hovered around 5 per cent, short of the 7 per cent he had outlined as a campaign goal.

Developing infrastructure projects, the main policy thrust of Mr Widodo’s government, takes a long time and is yet to deliver significant results.

But what cuts close to the heart of the average Indonesian are bread and butter issues.

Opinion polls show that the public is most dissatisfied with the Jokowi administration over the price of basic necessities and employment availability.

Already, the “2019 Change President” movement – using the Indonesian hashtag #2019GantiPresiden – coming from the Subianto camp has been capitalising on such grievances among the populace.

It will not be surprising if Mr Subianto’s campaign takes the Jokowi administration to task over these issues in the next few months.

With a phenomenally successful businessman such as Mr Uno as his deputy, Mr Subianto has a ready and credible spokesman on Indonesia’s economic woes.

Conventional parrying points aside, both presidential candidates will have to devise new tactics that can capture the 80 million millennial vote bank, 10 million of whom are voting for the first time. This constitutes more than 40 per cent of the estimated 196.5 million eligible voters.

Admittedly, compared to 75-year-old Mr Amin, Mr Uno, who is 49 and an avid marathon runner, is expected to be more appealing to the millennials.

However, Mr Widodo can also attempt to draw in young voters through popular artists and celebrities, as he did the last time. What can be decisive is perhaps the candidates’ ability to address the aspirations of the millennials directly.    

While Mr Widodo may not have to watch his back where religious credibility is concerned, as the incumbent, he will have to produce a convincing report card for voters to return him for a second term.

His challenge is to address immediate bread and butter issues, perhaps through a few short-term stop-gap measures, and offer young voters hope that their aspirations can be fulfilled.

Whether and how these can be done will become evident in the next few months.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Hui Yew-Foong and Budi Irawanto are Senior Fellow and Visiting Fellow respectively at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.