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Post Cabinet reshuffle, all eyes now on the general election

Singapore’s leadership renewal and succession took another step forward with yesterday’s minimalist Cabinet reshuffle. If there was any doubt as to who will be Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister, it was made abundantly clear that Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat is the anointed successor to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

The author says that we can expect Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat, seen here with Singaporeans at a reception in San Francisco in April, to take on a higher profile from next month as the leadership spotlight shifts gradually from PM Lee.

The author says that we can expect Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat, seen here with Singaporeans at a reception in San Francisco in April, to take on a higher profile from next month as the leadership spotlight shifts gradually from PM Lee.

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Singapore’s leadership renewal and succession took another step forward with yesterday’s minimalist Cabinet reshuffle. If there was any doubt as to who will be Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister, it was made abundantly clear that Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat is the anointed successor to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

The handover to the fourth-generation (4G) leadership will likely take place between 18 and 30 months after the next General Election, which must be held by April 2021, three months after the term of the current Parliament ends in January 2021. No Singapore Parliament has ever completed its full term.

The Cabinet changes, the sixth since the September 2015 general election, will see Mr Teo Chee Hean and Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam relinquish their Deputy Prime Minister portfolios and take on the role of Senior Ministers.

Their stepping aside is necessary if the 4G leaders are to have a larger canvas to paint on. But there is no doubt that they will continue to counsel and mentor their younger colleagues who, in turn, will tap their experience and expertise honed through many years in government.

Following on the heels of his being made the ruling People’s Action Party First Assistant Secretary-General in November last year, Mr Heng’s appointment as the sole Deputy Prime Minister from May 1 provides him with the latitude to shape his Cabinet in the years ahead.

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Unlike his predecessors who have broader and longer exposure within the political leadership, Mr Heng has helmed only two Ministries — Education and Finance. So would most of his 4G colleagues.

This reflects how the tenor of leadership renewal has evolved since the 1970s. Hence, PM Lee’s emphasis on the collective team, rather than any on any individual, as the prominent descriptor of the 4G leadership.

Nevertheless, we can expect Mr Heng to take on a higher profile from next month as the leadership spotlight shifts gradually from PM Lee. This has to be the case and the 3G leaders will increasingly take a back seat on key matters. This was evident in the Budget and Committee of Supply debates in February and March.

Yet, there was no retirement of any 3G Minister this time; no new office-holders were appointed either. Taken together, they signal that the ongoing leadership transition has now entered a steady state and taking place under the imperative of change amid continuity.

In the meantime, Mr Heng and his deputy, Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, will play critical roles in ensuring that their team will be equal to the task of governing.

With the core of the 4G team in place for now, one of key objectives for Mr Heng and his 4G team is to win the next general election with a strong mandate from Singaporeans. They cannot take anything for granted, and every vote counts.            

While it is unlikely that the next election would pivot on the 4G leadership, the imperative is, of course, to ensure that the ongoing leadership renewal proceeds uneventfully and to set in motion the next cycle of leadership renewal and succession.

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This will be about the “4.5 leadership” rather than the fifth-generation leadership. Mr Heng will likely be past 60 years of age when he succeeds Mr Lee as prime minister. Given that no Singapore prime minister has held office beyond the age of 70, it may well be that Mr Heng’s successor is already in the Cabinet.

The expectations and demands on governance and political leadership are growing in Singapore. Founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew’s Old Guard Generation was dedicated to the cause of creating success for a nation-state that had nationhood unexpectedly foisted on it.

Mr Goh Chok Tong’s second-generation leadership and PM Lee’s team then had the task of growing and managing success in the nation-building quest.

Mr Heng’s 4G leadership will have to fire up the nation’s imagination, courage, and determination to sustain growth and have new markers of success that go beyond economic superlatives and measures.

The dominant purpose in the latest round of changes at the apex of political leadership is to demonstrate that the issue of who is Singapore’s prime minister is now cut and dried. But another take-away is that the PAP government has shifted up another gear in its election mode.

It would appear that the general election may be called sooner rather than later. The fact that all the other Ministers retained their portfolios may well indicate that another round of major changes before the polls will be more disruptive than helpful. The arrival of a new Minister in any Ministry often spells new objectives and approaches.

That the status quo is being maintained suggests that the PAP government is consolidating their work since 2015 and will focus on tying up loose ends as it submits its report card of achievements to the electorate to justify its case to govern for another five-year term.

Tuesday’s announcement of Cabinet changes may well be the last before the 13th general election.

The bare-bone reshuffle was somewhat unexpected but the ruling party’s eyes are now well on securing an electoral win as Singaporeans prepare to go to polls, probably in the last quarter of 2019.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Eugene K B Tan is associate professor at the Singapore Management University School of Law and a former Nominated Member of Parliament.

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