Suu Kyi’s risky gambit against the military

The significance of Myanmar’s appointment of a security adviser last week may not be obvious to the outside world, but it is seen as a key political event in the country, one that could affect ties between the civilian government and the military.

Mr Thaung Tun, a veteran diplomat whose career spans almost 40 years in key postings such as Bern, Brussels, Geneva, Manila, New York and Washington, will be the country’s first National Security Adviser since its independence in 1948. As a minister-rank official, he will be charged with providing the President and the Union government with strategic readings of Myanmar’s internal and external challenges and threats, including on sensitive issues such as the recent outbreak of hostilities in the Northern Shan and Rakhine states.

Unfortunately, Mr Thaung Tun’s appointment puts him on a collision course with the all-powerful military. By tradition, internal security has been the sole domain of the Myanmar military, with the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces serving as the principal adviser to the government on these issues. Past civilian governments under Prime Minister U Nu (1948-1962) and President Thein Sein (2011-2016) have honoured this arrangement, but Mr Thaung Tun’s appointment may be a harbinger of change.

However, the move by the National League for Democracy (NLD) government may encounter opposition and run afoul of the nation’s highest law. The military’s stranglehold on internal security is enshrined in the Constitution. Article 339 states that the “Defence Services shall lead in safeguarding the Union against all internal and external dangers”.

The military’s position is further strengthened by Article 20(b), which stipulates that the “Defence Services have the right to independently administer and adjudicate all affairs of the armed forces”. Thus, the military is within its constitutional prerogative to view the appointment of the National Security Adviser with some suspicion. It should not, then, come as a surprise that Mr Thaung Tun’s relationship with the military is expected to be frosty, if not downright antagonistic.

So why would State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi want to expend political capital on a move that would almost certainly guarantee a strong backlash from the military and jeopardise their hitherto good relations?

First, in appointing a National Security Adviser, Ms Suu Kyi is, in fact, turning away from the current National Defence and Security Council (NDSC). The Council has been moribund thus far, and President Htin Kyaw has reportedly yet to convene a Council meeting since taking office on April 1, 2016. The 11-member Council is provided by Article 201 of the Constitution and comprises the President, two Vice-Presidents, the Commander-in-Chief of the military, his deputy, speakers of the Lower and Upper Houses of Parliament, and the Defence, Home Affairs, Foreign Affairs and Border Affairs ministers. Ms Suu Kyi sits on the council by virtue of her position of Foreign Minister.

Ms Suu Kyi’s distrust of the Council stems from her time in the opposition. She sees it as a tool used by the military to control the civilian government. It comes as no surprise that talk is rife in Naypyidaw that a draft legislation is in the works, to reduce the Council’s power.

What is clear is the government’s desire to exert more control over the direction of the nation’s security.

The appointment of the National Security Adviser could also be a prelude to much-needed reform of the security sector. One priority is to institute a mechanism to coordinate the nation’s many security organisations, including the intelligence agencies under the supervision of the military and the Ministry of Home Affairs.

Technically, the National Security Adviser can serve as an overarching coordinating institution, but this may not be politically tenable, as the new institution would overlap and directly challenge the authority of the NDSC. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether Mr Thaung Tun will report to the President or the State Counsellor, and what his relationship with the other ministers is envisioned to be.

In creating this appointment, Ms Suu Kyi may have taken a leaf from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s creation of a National Security Council, headed by former Vice-Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi as National Security Adviser. The Council coordinates and oversees the Defence, Security and Foreign Affairs ministries. It is not clear if its Myanmar counterpart will have the same clout.

Mr Thaung Tun’s success will depend largely on both the military’s acquiescence to civilian counsel, and whether the office can get the political backing and resources it needs.

The military has so far not made its position on the issue clear. There are concerns that this could point to a looming clash between the military leaders and Ms Suu Kyi.

Ms Suu Kyi has astutely cultivated a good rapport and working relationship with the military since winning the election in November 2015. Her latest gambit is a sign of the government’s growing confidence in expanding its foray into the security domain. Most Myanmar citizens would welcome this broadening of civilian participation in managing the nation’s security as another step in the country’s democratisation after decades of military rule. But Ms Suu Kyi has to tread carefully and not take unnecessary risks lest she upset her delicate ties with the military. Her National League for Democracy party, through its control of the Parliament, can enact laws, but these would be hollow victories unless Ms Suu Kyi wins the military’s support to implement them.

What Myanmar needs is a peaceful coexistence of these titans, and not a clash. Only time will tell if the appointment of the National Security Adviser will usher in the end of the hitherto-tenuous accommodation between Ms Suu Kyi and the military.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Ye Htut, a Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, is a former Information Minister of Myanmar.