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Trump-Kim summit: It ain’t over till the fat lady sings

So the Trump-Kim Summit is off. Or is it? I think it is, at least for now. Still, North Korea has made unpredictability an art form, and when dealing with Pyongyang, it is never over until it is over, and sometimes, not even then.

People in Seoul watch a TV broadcasting a news report on the cancelled summit between the United States and North Korea on May 25, 2018.

People in Seoul watch a TV broadcasting a news report on the cancelled summit between the United States and North Korea on May 25, 2018.

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So the Trump-Kim Summit is off. Or is it? I think it is, at least for now. Still, North Korea has made unpredictability an art form, and when dealing with Pyongyang, it is never over until it is over, and sometimes, not even then.

Of course, in this case it was United States President Donald Trump who called it off. But he too prides himself on unpredictability, and whatever you can accuse him of, being afraid of changing his mind is not one of them.

North Korea has said it is still open to talking to the US. Mr Trump’s letter was not aggressive or hostile in its tone, and the cancellation was not unqualified: The US President only said a meeting was inappropriate “at this time”.

I am not holding my breath, but the fat lady hasn’t sung yet, at least to my ear. In the meantime, there two new realities.

First, North Korea has gained recognition as a de facto nuclear weapon state. It would never have denuclearised anyway, but its resolve to remain one must have been strengthened.

White House officials have been quoted as saying that North Korean representatives simply did not turn up for preparatory meetings without any explanation. Did Mr Kim Jong-un have second thoughts?

Perhaps. If he did, it must have been after several senior members of the Trump administration talked about the “Libya model”.

For those who may not remember, after former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi gave up his rudimentary nuclear programme, his country was attacked, regime change was effected, and Gaddafi was killed.

I am sure that whoever else may have forgotten, Mr Kim remembered. North Korea, in fact, often uses the Libyan example as justification for its nuclear weapons. The hostile rhetoric that Mr Trump used to justify calling off the meeting came after his people talked about the Libya model.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said about a week ago that the main US interest was to get rid of long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) that can reach the continental US. There was always only a ghost of a chance that North Korea would have agreed; now there is absolutely none.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must be relieved. Giving up long-range ICBMs would have left Pyongyang with a lot of medium-range missiles capable of reaching Japan. But this is only a respite, not a reprieve, for Japan. The inherent logic of the security dilemma it is in does not change.

Second, assuming that North Korea does not immediately resume missile or nuclear tests, it is going to be extremely difficult to enhance sanctions against Pyongyang.

After all, it did not call off the summit, and in the lead-up to what would have been an historic meeting, North Korea said it was willing to discuss denuclearisation. It has not taken that back.

China will not go along with enhanced sanctions. Beijing now has every incentive to relax its implementation of existing sanctions, or turn a blind eye if they are circumvented.

Earlier this week, Mr Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of persuading Mr Kim to take a more hostile tone, which manifested itself after the two Asian leaders met for a second time, in the Chinese city of Dalian on May 7 and 8. (An earlier meeting between the two took place in Beijing in late March).

But correlation is not causation. We will never know what happened at that second meeting, but the record of North Korea-China relations under Mr Kim is not one that suggests that he listens to Mr Xi unless it suits his purposes. At any rate, it is clear that China was ambivalent about the summit.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who invested much political capital in this summit, and whose officials said they were 99 per cent sure it would happen, must be feeling vulnerable.

So where does this leave the issue? We are more or less back where we were at the start of this year. Deterrence will hold, and diplomacy to stabilise deterrence has not yet been entirely ruled out.

And remember, the fat lady has not sung yet. We are only at the beginning of the beginning of the beginning of a very long process.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Bilahari Kausikan was formerly Permanent Secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He first posted this commentary on Facebook.

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