What are the political calculations behind move to lower the voting age in Malaysia?

On July 4, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government tabled a constitutional amendment to lower Malaysia’s voting age from 21 to 18.

This is the government’s second attempt to amend the Constitution. Given that the number of PH parliamentarians falls under the two-thirds threshold required to amend the Constitution, any attempt by government to do so will need some support from the opposition.

Reducing the voting age was an election promise the PH coalition made in its manifesto. If the Bill passes, over 1.6 million Malaysians currently between 18 and 20 will be eligible to vote. With elections due in four years by 2023, Malaysians now between 14 and 17 years old — numbering roughly 2.1 million — could join the electorate.

At an estimated 3.7 million, they collectively account for slightly over 11 per cent of the total population — a sizeable proportion that could have a significant impact on future election results.

What is driving this move? And will the opposition lend its support to this endeavour?

Unlike the Barisan Nasional (BN) governments of old, the PH coalition as a whole is seen as much more representative of younger voters. It has a significant number of young grassroots members, state assembly representatives, Members of Parliament (MPs), and ministers.

What is more, statistics indicate that PH routed BN among voters aged between 21 and 30 during the General Elections in May 2018.

Considering these trends, PH’s calculations seem fairly straightforward. Since support for the coalition among younger voters is significantly high, the assumption is that many Malaysians between 18 and 21 — as well as Malaysians who will be 18 by the next election — will likely back PH.

Lowering the voting age could therefore help the pact consolidate support among the youth demographic.

While opposition parties do not typically back a government’s attempt to amend the Constitution, they may lend their support if they see a significant enough political benefit in doing so.

So what are their calculations?

Of the political parties in Malaysia, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) arguably has the best track record in mobilising its support base. PAS has been successful in convincing its followers that since it is performing God’s work, supporting the party is obligatory.

Notably, scholars have documented how PAS’ youth wing has often possessed greater zeal for the party’s religious principles compared to the relatively pragmatic older members. This is a consequence of the fact that PAS has created a comprehensive eco-system to introduce its vision and inculcate a commitment to the party’s belief system.

These include schools, study circles, social and religious activities, savvy use of social media, and welfare programmes. Because PAS’ party-run schooling system begins with kindergarten education, it has been able to co-opt many into its ideological vision from a young age. Thus, PAS will see a lower voting age as beneficial to its electoral objectives.

Its response so far to the PH proposal has therefore not been hostile.

PAS nevertheless gave the amendments conditional support by tabling a private member’s Bill to propose two accompanying measures: To automate voter registration and to lower the minimum age of a candidate to 18.

For BN, the situation is more complex. On the one hand, its support among the youth has dwindled considerably since 2008. Few among those below 21 identify with BN’s component parties. However, BN also recognises that it needs to regain the trust of younger Malaysians.

In this regard, the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) in particular will perceive the difficulties faced by PH in implementing its reform agenda as an opportunity to score points with youths frustrated with the reform process.

The objective would be to use such disillusionment to sway younger Malaysians away from PH.

This suggests that BN too could gain electorally from lowering the voting age, though perhaps not as much as PAS or PH.

Notably, a year ago, Umno announced it would lower its membership age to 16 in preparation for the eventual reduction of the voting age.

Should PH successfully amend the Constitution, it will be able to claim a much-needed political victory.

After PH held its presidential council meeting on July 8, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad announced that the government would incorporate PAS’ two proposals.

However, automating voter registration will first require a thorough review of the electoral roll. Given the bureaucratic legwork required to accomplish this, it is unclear how long doing so will take.

Nevertheless, PH likely accepted the counter-proposal in order to secure the support of PAS for the bill. Since then, BN also stated that as long as the terms of the private member’s bill are included in the constitutional amendment, it will vote for it.

Dr Mahathir has since publicly acknowledged the opposition’s commitment to support the amended bill.

Though unlikely, it may be worth watching whether BN shifts its position during the second reading and debate of the bill on Tuesday (July 16). With Ahmad Zahid Hamidi returning as Umno’s president, some observers are wondering whether there will be any chance in strategy.

However, Umno and PAS are in the final stages of negotiations over their proposed alliance. Umno may not want to disrupt this process by not supporting the Bill. It will also want to avoid upsetting Malaysian youths by voting against their electoral empowerment.

That said, so long as PAS backs the Bill, PH will have the support of over 70 per cent of parliamentarians. So even if BN opts to play the parliamentary irritant, it may be inconsequential to the Bill’s eventual passage.      

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Prashant Waikar is Senior Analyst with the Malaysia Programme in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.