What navigating a largely virtual GE entails

The political battlefield of the July 10 General Election will be significantly different from any in the country’s history.

Singapore’s 13th election since independence will be its first largely virtual election, thanks to the new rules governing campaigning activities during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Due to the persistent risk of the virus being transmitted through human contact, voters will not get to see physical rallies, often a crowd favorite during the campaign period. 

Instead, there will be online campaigning and increased political broadcasts on mainstream media.

Candidates will have to lean more on digital tools to reach voters, as door-to-door campaigning, while allowed, will understandably be curtailed.

This shift to a more digital-focused election brings with it interesting opportunities as well as new potential challenges.

THE NEW NORMAL

Some have argued that the dust has barely settled after Singapore emerged from the two-month-long circuit breaker period, and that there are too many things still in flux in terms of the fight against Covid-19 to safely hold an election.

But there are many issues that come into play when calling for an election, and the Government has indicated a desire to secure a mandate from the people before focusing on the long-drawn effort to deal with the fallout of the pandemic.

There are a few clear factors which make a more virtual election a necessity.

First is the remaining risk, however low, of potential community transmission of Covid-19 sparking another wave of cases and the need for another circuit breaker.

Secondly, election activities involve significant person-to-person contact; and the excitement that elections typically bring that could lead to the neglect of safe distancing and other efforts designed to keep us safe and healthy.

Not surprisingly, the new campaigning rules have elicited a range of reactions from politicians.

Some have said that there is now more opportunity to engage directly with their constituents and voters, and to communicate directly with a medium which can feel more personal.

On the downside, there is a loss of the personal touch in door-to-door visits, and the buzz and excitement often experienced at physical rallies.

Beyond these reactions, it is useful to look at a deeper level of opportunities and threats in a virtual election.

THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE DIGITAL REALM

Looking first at the threats, it has become increasingly clear that voters and elections have been targeted by information operations in recent years, thanks in part to digital technology.

Such operations play on the impact of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation, and have sought to undermine a number of elections around the world, with the most high-profile

being Russian interference in the 2016 elections in the United States.

Misinformation is the spread of false information unintentionally, disinformation is the deliberate spread of falsehoods and malinformation is the use of both fact and falsehoods to confuse and mislead people.

All three are made far easier in the digital world, where information can circle the world in a second, and multiple information sources make it hard to discern what’s true.

The most common forms of disinformation in elections include the dissemination of fake news to discredit opponents or to influence the voting process, the falsification or manipulation of polling data, and the use of fake election monitoring and observation.

It is challenging to establish who is behind these efforts, as the technology deployed in a digital world allows bad actors to cloak their identities.

Disinformation is just one of many possible strategies that are employed to manipulate elections. 

Others include the targeting of voters with ads, the hacking of email accounts in order to discredit opponents, cyber attacks against election infrastructure, and support for anti-systemic forces by foreign governments.

Technology is increasingly a deciding factor in such attempts to affect elections.

For example, researchers in a study about the use of bots on Twitter during the Brexit campaign in the United Kingdom concluded that public opinions about Brexit were likely to have been manipulated by those bots.

And experts warn of other potential threats that involve attacks to deny access to political websites and information, and scenarios where voter behaviour could be affected by false alerts over Covid-19 outbreaks at certain locations, for example.

It will be critical for the authorities to put in place measures to guarantee the online safety and security of voters and political parties alike.

The impact to the democratic process can be significant if that security is compromised, or even if just confidence in that process is shaken due to a genuine cyber threat.

NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM

But there are also benefits to shifting towards a more virtual election that go beyond health and safety concerns.

First of all, it could draw in a traditionally apathetic younger demographic when it comes to politics.

Comprising digital natives, these younger voters, or soon-to-be voters, could become more interested and activated when it comes to local politics, if there is more political engagement online.

This extends beyond millennials, to the slightly more mature audiences who have become accustomed to the Netflix-style of content consumption, and who want what they want to see, when they want to see it. Online content can meet that demand.

Secondly, moving more activities online would help to cut down on costs, and make the election process more equitable and not just the domain of parties which have deep pockets.

Granted, a bigger budget would also result in a slicker online campaign, but on the whole it would lower costs significantly if the operations and logistics costs associated with physical rallies and campaigning were removed.

Thirdly, it is heartening to see that the new campaigning rules also increase the presence that political parties can have on broadcast media, as this would ensure that the less digitally savvy demographic are not left out in terms of engagement by political parties.

WHAT LIES AHEAD

Aspiring politicians are gearing up to speak to the electorate through the virtual campaigns to come, with some having already prepared “studios” and backdrops where they can film online content and rallies.

Others have already attempted to master new platforms such as Zoom to engage their constituents, with mixed results.

Some have held regular engagements throughout the circuit breaker that are well attended by residents, while others have produced amateurish attempts marred by technical issues and less-than-polished delivery.

Add to this the need to understand online consumption habits and to develop impactful and “sticky” messaging that resonates, and the challenges for them in the next couple of weeks are clear. 

But even as they polish their digital craft, it’s important for voters to be ready as well for this first-of-its-kind election on July 10.

The threat of fake news, disinformation operations and cyber attacks are a clear and present danger for a democratic society going to the polls, and it’s the responsibility of the whole of society to prepare to defend against it.

While the authorities are expected to take the lead in building a country’s defence against such threats through a regulatory framework and other infrastructure, the work of civil society and third-party independent fact-checkers remain vital in ensuring greater clarity and access to facts.

Critically, citizens too need to play their part and ensure they are educated and aware of the threat, and also informed about the issues that shape their decisions on who to vote for.

At the same time, there is also the need to guard against the virtual space being manipulated to achieve electoral outcomes, through the use of slick “click bait” in the form of content such as videos, pictures and memes that target emotions rather than use sensible arguments on issues that matter.

Any election is a serious milestone for a country.

And while circumstances dictate that this year’s will be one unlike any other seen by Singaporeans, it is important that we treat our mark on the ballot papers with greater gravity than we do our “likes” online.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Nicholas Fang is the founder and managing director of a communications consultancy and a market and social research agency which runs a not-for-profit independent fact-checking platform. A former journalist, he was a Nominated Member of Parliament from 2012 to 2014.