SINGAPORE — Following Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s remarks that the imminent Cabinet reshuffle will involve almost all ministries, political watchers expect the changes to be one of the most sweeping ever, to give younger ministers more exposure and new responsibilities.

However, they noted the need to maintain continuity in a handful of ministries, such as defence, home affairs and transport, despite the urgent need to expose the fourth-generation leaders to different portfolios.

Over the weekend, Mr Lee told the Singapore media on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in London that there will be extensive changes in the 16 ministries. But he added that “not all the ministers are moving”, with the portfolios of some of the key ministers adjusted while they take time to see through initiatives which they have started.

Murdoch University’s Associate Professor Terence Lee, who researches Singapore and Malaysia politics, reiterated that the Cabinet shake-up must balance between political expediency and prudence.

“The two primary reasons why some (ministers) will be retained are that they are either managing critical tasks, involving economic and security issues, or have a government-endorsed duty to fulfil,” he said.

Singapore Management University law lecturer Eugene Tan added: “Ultimately, It’s about striking that judicious, delicate balance that even as the younger leaders are put through their paces, the country continues to be governed well and there is no leadership deficit.”

The last time the Cabinet underwent a radical shake-up was following the watershed 2011 General Election: Five ministers stepped down, including several long-serving leaders — former prime ministers Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong, as well as Mr Wong Kan Seng, Mr Mah Bow Tan, and Mr Raymond Lim. At the same time, Mr Heng Swee Keat and Mr Chan Chun Sing, who were newly elected then, took office.

For the coming Cabinet reshuffle, at least three third-generation ministers are expected to retire: Trade and Industry (Trade) Minister Lim Hng Kiang, 64, Manpower Minister Lim Swee Say, 63, and Communications and Information Minister Yaacob Ibrahim, 62.

WHERE CONTINUITY IS EXPECTED

While the 4G leaders are expected to take on heavier responsibilities, political watchers expect a few 3G leaders to remain at the helm of their ministries. These are Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, 59, Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan, 65, and Law and Home Affairs Minister K. Shanmugam, 59.

Mr Shanmugam, for instance, is expected to see through prospective legislations to tackle online falsehoods, given that the Select Committee convened to study the issue is still in the midst of preparing its recommendations for the Government, said Assoc Prof Lee.

He added that Mr Khaw will also likely be retained to oversee ongoing efforts to enhance rail reliability, especially with rail operator SMRT getting a new chief executive in August.

Mr Khaw had previously hinted at his political future. Addressing Parliament last November on asset renewal work along the East-West and North-South lines, Mr Khaw had said he “won’t be in (the) House” by the time renewal work for core elements — such as the signalling systems and track circuits — wrap up by 2024, suggesting that he may not stand in the next General Election, due by January 2021.

The observers also expect Social and Family Development Minister Desmond Lee, who is part of the 4G leadership, to retain his current portfolio, given that the 41-year-old was appointed to his current role last September — taking over from Mr Tan Chuan-Jin, who became Speaker of Parliament.

While some of the ministers may be staying where they are, their portfolios could be adjusted via a merger or separation of ministerial duties, said Assoc Prof Lee, citing how ministries had been restructured in the past. For example, in November 2012, two ministries — the Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports and the Ministry of Information, Communications and the Arts — were reconstituted to form the Ministry for Social and Family Development, the Ministry of Communications and Information (MCI) and the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth.

Some of the larger ministries, such as defence, home affairs and health, may also see additional full ministerial appointments, given the growing workload, said Assoc Prof Tan. There is recent precedence: Since October 2015, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) have been helmed by two ministers each.

POTENTIAL PM SUCCESSORS TO BE TESTED

While Mr Lee had said in January that he is not appointing a new deputy prime minister in the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle, observers expect the three frontrunners to be the next prime minister — Mr Heng, Mr Chan and Education Minister (Higher Education and Skills) Ong Ye Kung — to be tested in new waters.

It is of “paramount importance” that the next prime minister attains a good grasp of different key portfolios, said Nanyang Technological University political scientist Woo Jun Jie.

Assoc Prof Lee noted that at this point in time, all three frontrunners have “very clear gaps in their curriculum vitaes”.

Political observers expect Mr Chan to leave the labour movement and take on the trade and industry portfolio, replacing Mr Lim Hng Kiang.

Former People’s Action Party Member of Parliament Inderjit Singh said Mr Chan is likely to take on a heavyweight portfolio that “needs a lot of attention”, such as the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Mr Chan — who entered politics in 2011 after 24 years in the military, including serving as the chief of army — had previously held political office in defence, communications and information, and social and family development. He is currently also Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.

Last week, Mr Heng told reporters he would be “very happy to continue my job as finance minister”. Referring to the Budget statement that he delivered in February, he added that there are “many things that we need to do”.

While the observers expect Mr Heng, 57, to continue helming the Finance Ministry, they believe that he could take on additional portfolios.

Both Mr Singh and Asst Prof Woo believe he could be asked to helm another ministry such as defence or home affairs concurrently, or as second minister.

As for Mr Ong, the political watchers are divided on whether he would retain the education portfolio. Some, like Mr Singh, foresees a new portfolio, such as foreign affairs, being added on the 48-year-old’s plate. “In recent times, ties with China have been rough and if (Mr Ong) can do a good job with China, he would have proven himself,” said Mr Singh.

Both Mr Ong and Mr Heng chair business councils for Singapore and China, while Mr Chan co-leads the Chongqing Connectivity Inititaive, the third government-level collaboration between both countries.

Asst Prof Woo noted that Mr Ong possesses “the credentials of a potential finance minister”.

“Given his strong background in economics, business and the private sector, we cannot dismiss this possibility,” he said.

Mr Ong, who is also currently Second Defence Minister, was formerly a director at Keppel Corporation. He sits on the board of the Monetary Authority of Singapore as well.

OTHER POTENTIAL MOVEMENTS

With Mr Lim Hng Kiang expected to be succeeded by Mr Chan at MTI, political observers believe that Second Manpower Minister Josephine Teo will likely be promoted to take over Mr Lim Swee Say.

Asked about the possibility of her helming the Manpower Ministry last week, Mrs Teo would only say that given her previous involvement in the labour movement, she has been engaged in manpower issues for a longer period compared with her other concurrent portfolios. Mrs Teo is also Second Minister for Home Affairs and a minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, where she oversees the National Population and Talent Division.

Over at MCI, one of the two Senior Ministers of State — Dr Janil Puthucheary and Mr Chee Hong Tat — is expected to succeed Dr Yaacob, observers said.

Should Dr Yaacob retire from the Cabinet, Minister for Environment and Water Resources Masagos Zulkifli is widely expected to take over as Minister-in-charge of Muslim Affairs.

Other members of the 4G leadership, such as Senior Ministers of State Indranee Rajah (Finance and Law) and Sim Ann (Trade and Industry, and Culture, Community and Youth), could also be promoted to full ministers, said Assoc Prof Tan.

Assoc Prof Tan reiterated that it is “imperative” to balance the fuller exposure for new blood against the continuity and expertise that more experienced ministers possess.

Even after the reshuffle, he expects the 3G leaders to continue in their “mentoring” roles while letting their younger colleagues “step into (the) limelight”.

“It is also crucial for the 4G ministers to develop deep expertise as well. Too quick a rotation through the various portfolios will not be helpful in their development... It (should) not be change for the sake of change,” he said.

The impending Cabinet reshuffle is “highly significant” as it sets the big pieces of the jigsaw in place, the observers said.

But it is likely to be followed by another round of changes within the next 12 to 18 months where the identity of Singapore’s fourth prime minister will be apparent, they added.