Average lifespan of S'poreans in 2040 will be 85.4 years, third longest globally: Study

SINGAPORE — The average Singaporean can expect to live 85.4 years in 2040, up 2.1 years from the average of 83.3 years in 2016, according to a new study by a global health research organisation.

Singapore is expected to maintain its third-place ranking in average life expectancy in 2040, if recent health trends continue.

By then, Spaniards are expected to live the longest — an average of 85.8 years — pipping the Japanese, who are expected to live an average of 85.7 years.

Other countries in the top 10 are expected to be Switzerland, Portugal, Italy, Israel, France, Luxembourg and Australia.

The new study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington also forecasts alternative scenarios. The average life expectancy in Singapore is expected to decrease by as much as 0.2 years in a worse health scenario, which will occur if the factors that influence premature death are higher than projected.

Published on Wednesday (Oct 17) in The Lancet journal, the study projects a significant increase in deaths from non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, and lung cancer.

In 2040, the top 10 causes of premature death in Singapore will largely be similar to current leading causes. They will include lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease — a disease characterised by reduced blood supply to the heart — Alzheimer’s disease, lung cancer and chronic kidney disease. 

But instead of suicide and breast cancer, which are among the leading causes now, hypertensive heart disease and COPD will be among the top 10 causes in 2040, according to the study.

“The future of the world’s health is not preordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories,” said Dr Kyle Foreman, the institute’s director of data science and lead author of the study.

“But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.”

Dr Foreman said the top health drivers that explain most of the future trajectory for premature death are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use and alcohol use. Air pollution was the sixth health driver.

The study covered 195 countries and territories.

Fifty-nine, including China, are projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040.

At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe have projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating persistent global disparities in survival if current trends hold, the researchers said.

“In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely," Dr Christopher Murray, the institute’s director, said.

“But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet.”

Besides China, other nations that are expected to substantially increase their life expectancy ranking in 2040 include Syria, Nigeria and Indonesia.

Palestine is expected to see the biggest dip in ranking, alongside the United States, which is expected to drop from 43rd position in 2016 to 64th in 2040, with average lifespan at 79.8 years — the biggest decrease for high income countries.

The researchers modelled 250 causes and cause groups from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2016. They used estimates from the study to generate predictions for 2017 to 2040.

They also accounted for the relationship between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index and lack of clean water.

Sign up for TODAY's WhatsApp service. Click here:
 

Sign Up