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What commuters can expect as public transport ridership levels remain under pre-Covid levels, months after crisis ended

SINGAPORE — Public transport ridership figures are still lagging behind pre-Covid levels, even though pandemic restrictions have eased significantly since April this year, with many workers returning to the office and tourist arrivals hitting new post-Covid records. 

What commuters can expect as public transport ridership levels remain under pre-Covid levels, months after crisis ended
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  • Despite pandemic restrictions having eased significantly since April, public transport ridership still remains below pre-Covid levels 
  • In the CBD area, for example, ridership figures have returned to only about half of pre-Covid levels
  • Bus and train frequencies are unlikely to be affected in the medium term
  • However, there may be a case for reducing frequencies over the long term to keep the transport system financially viable, experts said

SINGAPORE — Public transport ridership figures are still lagging behind pre-Covid levels, even though pandemic restrictions have eased significantly since April this year, with many workers returning to the office and tourist arrivals hitting new post-Covid records. 

In the Central Business District (CBD) area, for example, MRT train ridership figures have returned to only about half of pre-Covid levels. 

Responding to queries from TODAY, the Land Transport Authority said on Thursday (Dec 8) that from January to October this year, the number of commuters who exited MRT stations in the CBD during the weekday morning peak periods was about 51 per cent of pre-Covid levels.

The average daily ridership on weekdays from January to October this year was 3.67 million for bus riders, and 3.06 million for train commuters, LTA added. 

This was an increase from whole-day figures (including weekends) from 2021, where there were about 3.0 million and 2.1 million daily riders of buses and trains respectively.

However, those figures still lagged behind pre-Covid figures in 2019, where there were 4.1 million and 3.38 million daily riders on buses and trains. 

In November, Transport Minister S Iswaran said that overall, public transport ridership had recovered to about 88 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.

What are some of the reasons that ridership numbers could still be lagging behind the levels seen before Covid-19? And what implications could there be? 

Professor Raymond Ong from the department of civil and environmental engineering at the National University of Singapore (NUS) helped to answer some questions.

WHY IS PUBLIC TRANSPORT RIDERSHIP STILL LOWER THAN PRE-COVID LEVELS? 

  • Commuter behaviour has not reverted fully to how it was before the pandemic
  • For instance, many commuters still prefer to use alternative forms of transport that have been normalised over the pandemic
  • These include private-hire vehicles or their own personal vehicles
  • Some commuters may see these personalised options to be safer in terms the likelihood of an infection wave, compared to taking public transport 
  • Companies are no longer under any group-size or work-from-home restrictions, but many have decided to keep work-from-home or hybrid-work arrangements on a longer-term basis

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT OPERATORS?

  • Transport fares are not decided by the public transport operators but by the Public Transport Council (PTC), using a fare formula
  • PTC said in August that the formula will be reviewed for its effectiveness, taking into account changes in the public transport industry and commuting patterns
  • Moves to cut the frequency of public transport ran into headwinds even during the partial lockdown in 2020
  • There were problems such as overcrowding and a backlash from commuters due to longer waiting times
  • It will thus be unlikely that bus and train frequencies will be reduced in the medium term, so that the reliability of the service for each commuter will not be compromised 
  • It is also unlikely that public transport operators will experience lower demand for manpower
  • This is because comparable headcounts will be needed to keep up pre-Covid bus and train frequencies, whether or not there is a fall in ridership 

WHAT COULD THIS MEAN FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT SPENDING IN THE LONG TERM? 

  • In the medium term, bus and train frequencies may remain the same
  • However, "fundamental" questions may remain on how the public transport system can match demand from users with the supply of services
  • Should public transport operators continue to operate at the same frequencies but continue to see a long-term fall in ridership, then it will be "unsustainable financially"
  • Rising fuel prices would worsen the financial pressures, and these will have to be aided by increasing government subsidies 
  • In the long term, should ridership figures remain suppressed, then public transport operators will have to consider cutting the frequency of services 
  • "Eventually, commuters have to come to a realisation that they have to live with it. Perhaps in the CBD during peak hours, the trains will come at a lower frequency. As a passenger, we have to understand this," Prof Ong from NUS said. 

Related topics

public transport Covid-19 LTA

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