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Explainer: Why Hong Kong residents are so concerned over the extradition bill, and what’s next?

SINGAPORE — A day after protesters opposed to a proposed extradition law jammed Hong Kong’s streets, the city risks further unhappiness and protests, and an erosion of public trust in its government, said analysts.

Analysts warn of more disruption ahead, along with an erosion of Hong Kong's status as a business centre, if the controversial extradition bill is passed into law.

Analysts warn of more disruption ahead, along with an erosion of Hong Kong's status as a business centre, if the controversial extradition bill is passed into law.

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SINGAPORE — A day after protesters opposed to a proposed extradition law jammed Hong Kong’s streets, the city risks further unhappiness and protests, and an erosion of public trust in its government, said analysts.

For their part, the territory’s leaders are standing firm on the contentious bill, despite the massive protest, one of the largest in the city’s history.

The bill, which would allow fugitives to be transferred to mainland China and elsewhere, could also have far-reaching consequences for Hong Kong if countries stop seeing it as a trusted location to do business, the analysts said.

It could lead to a brain drain as well, as more Hong Kongers may emigrate, they added.

The protest on Sunday (June 9) drew more than a million people, according to the organisers’ estimate. But why are Hong Kongers so passionately concerned about the proposed law?

And what’s next for Hong Kong? TODAY takes a close look at the issue.

WHY IS THE BILL CONTROVERSIAL?

In February, Hong Kong’s government proposed wide-ranging changes to simplify case-by-case extraditions of criminal suspects to jurisdictions with which the city does not have extradition agreements.

Central to the discontent is that it will allow extraditions to greater China, including the mainland, Taiwan and Macau.

Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule in 1997, but operates with some autonomy under a “one country, two systems” model. For example, Hong Kong has a separate legislature and judiciary.

While Hong Kong’s government has said that the law would plug a loophole allowing criminals to get away with their crimes, many in the special administrative region are worried that it could be used to hand over dissidents, journalists critical of Beijing, and pro-democracy activists to the mainland.

There is also widespread distrust of China’s judicial system. 

The bill has attracted opposition from far and wide, including pro-democracy activists, students, business groups, as well as lawyers and businesspeople who are typically pro-establishment.

Foreign governments, too, have weighed in. Mr Jeremy Hunt, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, for instance, has registered concerns with the Hong Kong government, saying that it is “vital that Hong Kong enjoys, and is seen to enjoy, the full measure of its high degree of autonomy and rule of law”. 

Hong Kong’s officials previously made their case for the changes after a young pregnant Hong Kong woman was murdered by her boyfriend while holidaying in Taiwan last year.

The suspect, who is in prison in Hong Kong on money-laundering charges, cannot be transferred to Taiwan to face justice. 

But Taiwan has opposed the law as its citizens run the risk of being extradited to mainland China. Taiwan exercises effective autonomy, but is regarded by China as a breakaway state that will eventually return to its fold.

Its president Tsai Ing-wen said in a tweet on Sunday: “We stand with all freedom-loving people of Hong Kong. In their faces, we see the longing for freedom and are reminded that Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy must be guarded and renewed by every generation.”

WILL THE LAW LEAD TO POLITICAL EXTRADITIONS?

Hong Kong’s government, under pressure from the business fraternity and other groups, has already watered down the bill, which will allow only criminals who committed more serious crimes punishable by at least seven years’ jail (up from three years) to be extradited, for example.

But opponents of the bill have cited China’s record of rounding up people in Hong Kong who are seen as critical of the mainland.

In 2015, for instance, five staff members from bookseller Causeway Bay Books and Mighty Current publishing house vanished from locations in Hong Kong, mainland China and Thailand. They were later found to have been detained in China. 

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Political scientist Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore (NUS) told TODAY that the bill raises the question of whether those protesting against its enactment, for instance, could be arrested for political crimes or crimes against the state, and extradited to China to potentially face trial and jail. 

“Will this open the floodgates for a legal way in which China can then crack down on what it sees as its opponents in Hong Kong?” said Associate Professor Chong.

The law is also “so broad and so vague”, and affects many sectors, he added.

“Will it then start applying to businesses and media? So media reporting that is seen as unfair, will those people be in jeopardy?” he asked.

While Hong Kong has repeatedly said the law would exclude political crimes and its judiciary would act as gatekeepers, some judges have said that attempts to stop suspects from being extradited to the mainland could be met with criticism and political pressure from Beijing.

WILL THE GOVERNMENT BOW TO PUBLIC PRESSURE?

Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam on Monday said that the bill would not be withdrawn and she would not resign her post even as she vowed to reach out to opponents of the bill.

Assistant Professor Stephan Ortmann of the City University of Hong Kong said that it appears as though “the government plans to ignore the public outcry and wants to pursue the bill, no matter the massive opposition”.

“Carrie Lam will probably not abandon the legislation because this would have serious consequences for her from the Chinese government. The chief executive's first obligation is to be accountable to the Chinese government, while there is no actual mechanism that holds her accountable by the people,” said Asst Prof Ortmann, who is from the university’s department of Asian and international studies.

There have been suggestions that the law was drawn up on orders from the Chinese government, a charge that Ms Lam and the Hong Kong government have vigorously dismissed.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Hong Kong’s lawmakers are set to debate the bill at the resumption of its second reading on Wednesday.

Under Hong Kong’s legislative system, government bills undergo three readings before passage into law with a simple majority of its 70-seat parliament, which is known as the Legislative Council.

Since pro-Beijing lawmakers form the majority in the council, the extradition bill is expected to become law before the end of June.

Police watch a protester outside Hong Kong's Legislative Council. The Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has vowed to press ahead to pass the bill into law. Photo: REUTERS

“If the Hong Kong government and its legislative allies push through with the second and third reading on Wednesday, clearly there will be more unhappiness,” said NUS’ Assoc Prof Chong. “There will potentially be more protests.”

There are broader implications, though, including the erosion of public trust in Hong Kong’s authorities.

“As the Hong Kong government does things that are really at odds with wide swathes of public sentiment… that erosion of public trust will affect the effectiveness of its ability to rule,” said Assoc Prof Chong.

Ms Lam, its leader, could also leave her post.

“It would not be surprising that Carrie Lam gets cut in order to try to salvage some credibility for the Hong Kong government,” he added, noting that her predecessors have similarly been sacrificed so Beijing can move its agenda forward.

“But the fact that these efforts have been played so many times, the degree to which just cutting Carrie Lam would assuage the public is unclear.”

Meanwhile, Asst Prof Ortmann said that many Hong Kongers have considered emigrating and this could result in a brain drain.

“The pessimism about Hong Kong, which is already prevalent, will worsen. Politically, it will deepen conflicts between the different camps; thus (they will have) no ability to find a consensus,” he added.

Dr Yew Chiew Ping, head of contemporary China studies at the Singapore University of Social Sciences, said that the bill would undermine business and domestic confidence in Hong Kong’s system, with further repercussions for the city’s financial-hub status.

HOW WILL THE AMERICANS AND OTHERS VIEW THE BILL?

Asst Prof Ortmann’s view is that the bill could have economic consequences if American and European policymakers stop considering Hong Kong as a “trustworthy location”.

“The US may make use of it in their ongoing trade war and it might affect the US-Hong Kong Policy Act, which is already being challenged. If that is the case, the economic consequences are unimaginable. It might bring a sudden decline in the economy,” he said.

The US has warned that the proposed extradition law could violate the Act, passed by the US Congress in 1992. It affords Hong Kong economic and trade privileges, provided that China keeps its promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy.

The question now is whether the law, if it comes to pass, will be used in the manner feared by its opponents and large segments of Hong Kong’s population.

“It will strengthen the climate of fear and result in some people becoming more cautious, especially moderates,” said Asst Prof Ortmann.

“However, I think the real implication would come if the law is actually used as is feared. It is likely that there are people willing to test it.”

 

 

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extradition bill Hong Kong Hong Kong protest Carrie Lam

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