SINGAPORE — Just three days after a landslide victory during Cambodia’s elections, Mr Hun Sen announced that he was stepping down from his post as prime minister.

His replacement? His oldest son Hun Manet.

On Monday (Aug 7), Cambodia’s king appointed the 45-year-old as the country’s prime minister.

His father, Mr Hun Sen, 71, is one of the world’s longest-serving leaders, having been Cambodia’s prime minister for nearly four decades.

Although Dr Hun Manet has been touted as his father’s successor in 2021, it was unclear when the transition would occur at the time. 

Dr Hun Manet has also kept mum about his plans for Cambodia, leaving many unsure of what changes the western-educated man might make for the country, which has strong ties with China.

While he has kept a low-profile besides his social media activities, Dr Hun Manet had been helping with his father’s campaign duties this year, news agency AFP reported.

TODAY speaks to foreign affairs experts to find out more about what the change in leadership means for the country, its foreign policy and its neighbours such as Singapore.

WHO IS HUN MANET?

Until recently, Dr Hun Manet was the commander of the Royal Cambodian Army.

He is married to the daughter of a prominent politician, and has three children.

He is the first Cambodian to graduate from the West Point military academy in the United States in 1999, enrolling after joining the Cambodian military. 

Dr Hun Manet rose through the ranks of the military, having helmed the roles of head of counter-terrorism, deputy chief of his father’s bodyguard unit, army chief and deputy military commander.

During this time, he also pursued further studies abroad — earning a master’s degree in economics from New York University and a doctorate from Bristol University in the United Kingdom.

This is unlike his father, who has no formal education. 

Mr Hun Sen was a Khmer Rouge commander who fled to Vietnam during Pol Pot’s regime. He became foreign minister after Vietnam ousted the Khmer Rouge, taking prime ministership in 1985.

His son has become more involved in politics in recent years — joining the Cambodian People's Party standing committee and heading the party’s youth wing — though he has stopped short of making declarations of his plans for the country and its population of 16 million.

He visited Singapore in 2018 as the 64th Lee Kuan Yew Exchange Fellow, a fellowship that invites outstanding individuals to visit the nation based on their potential to contribute to the development of their countries and to bilateral ties with Singapore.

In a congratulatory message, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that Singapore and Cambodia had stepped up cooperation in trade and investments, technical assistance as well as military-to-military exchanges under Dr Hun Manet’s leadership in Cambodia’s military forces.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO CAMBODIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES?

Cambodia has long held a pro-Beijing stance and is economically dependent on China, with China contributing 44 per cent of Cambodia’s total foreign direct investment between 1994 and 2021.

Though both countries’ trade relationship remains strong, Cambodia was able to show a more independent foreign policy when it chaired the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) last year and condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

China, on the other hand, refused to condemn Russia’s actions.

This was a far cry from Cambodia’s past foreign policies, which have been viewed as pro-China.

In 2012, Asean foreign ministers failed to release a joint statement for the first time at the end of their annual gathering, with the Philippines blaming event host Cambodia for blocking criticism of China over its South China Sea's territorial dispute with other Asean countries.

Similar accusations of Cambodia resurfaced in 2016, though Mr Hun Sen then angrily denied that Phnom Penh had bowed to Chinese pressure.

Still, political analysts believe that Cambodia will maintain its strong ties with China under Dr Hun Manet, though his government will likely be more open to engaging in bilateral trade with Western countries due to his western-educated background.

Though his governance style will likely differ from his father’s, a political observer here said that Dr Hun Manet cannot deviate too much from the official party line.

Ms Joanne Lin Weiling, lead researcher and co-coordinator of the Asean Studies Centre at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, said: “It is important to understand that Dr Hun Manet cannot do this or make decisions that are not approved by his father, who still retains a strong influence on the party.

“Furthermore, his new Cabinet consisting of younger leaders are nothing more than children of the old guards who may not have the complete freedom to reset policies or move in a new direction, unless the old guard is completely no longer around.”

Agreeing, Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said: “If lessons from other authoritarian regimes are any guide, the prospect for change toward the liberal end of the political spectrum as dictators pass on the ruling batons to their offsprings are frankly not bright.

“These successors are more likely than not to continue with the authoritarian rule of their predecessors, albeit with a refreshed and seemingly liberalised outlook.”

Still, Ms Lin said that Dr Hun Manet’s style of governance may be more open compared to his father’s, since the son does not carry his father’s legacy.

“He understands that he needs to work his way from the ground up.

“He may try to listen more to the people to gain acceptance, as well as to promote stability domestically by avoiding extreme actions,” she added.

Dr James Gomez, regional director of civil society research institute Asia Centre, said that Dr Hun Manet’s background will enable his government to be more fluid.

“This is due to his ability to understand different cultures and experience studying overseas, and his ability to speak fluent English.

“However, Cambodia’s tilt towards China is very unlikely to change due to the very strong historical linkages between the two. 

“In the last decades, China has become a key actor in Cambodia’s economic and military development, while the relationship with the US has deteriorated remarkably, becoming less relevant.”

HOW WILL SINGAPORE AND ASEAN BE AFFECTED?

The analysts said that it is hard to tell to what extent Dr Hun Manet would place an emphasis on Asean unity.

This is especially if China remains a strong partner for Cambodia, Dr Gomez said.

“It remains to be seen whether Hun Manet is compliant with Asean regulations and unity of decisions, or steers the country away in favour of China.”

Mr Bora Chhay said, though, that Cambodia will continue to play an important role in Asean.

The managing director for Cambodia of strategic advisory firm BowerGroupAsia added: “Cambodia will continue to play an important role promoting Asean cooperation, accelerating integration, supporting the resolution of geopolitical tension in the region and leading efforts to combat climate change and human trafficking.”

Dr Oh said that Cambodia is likely to continue to “flex its de facto veto power” in Asean according to what it perceives to be its national interests.

“In the context of an authoritarian regime, the country’s national interests are often viewed by the authorities to be their own personal interests or that of their cronies,” he added.

However, the analysts said that Singapore is unlikely to be affected, and its bilateral relationship with Cambodia will continue due to the countries’ strong trade ties.

“Singapore has always been viewed by Cambodians as a benevolent investor and fruitful trading partner. So the bilateral relationship is likely to continue for mutual benefits,” Dr Oh said.

Mr Chhay from BowerGroupAsia said that Cambodia-Singapore bilateral trade may increase after Dr Hun Manet takes over.

“Following this, energy, technology and the digital sector will see the largest boost in investment.”

He added that Dr Hun Manet’s government will comprise young western-educated leaders of the Cambodian People's Party, many of whom were groomed at the country’s top economic think tanks.

“Hun Manet and his younger generation of leaders are keen to advance digitalisation as a key economic driver,” said Mr Chhay.

“Their fresh perspective and innovative ideas are expected to accelerate the country’s socioeconomic development by revamping key industries and retooling the workforce to adapt to post-pandemic economic realities.”

For now, the Cambodian government is expected to meet on Aug 22 to approve Dr Hun Manet’s position as prime minister. But with the Cambodian People's Party holding 120 of 125 seats, Dr Hun Manet is set to sail through the vote.