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US-China relations moving in 'very worrying' direction, both sides risk sleepwalking into conflict: Lawrence Wong

SINGAPORE — The relationship between the United States and China is moving in a “very worrying” direction towards dangerous territory and both sides risk "sleepwalking into conflict", said Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

FILE PHOTO: A map showing locations where Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) will conduct military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills is seen on newspaper reports of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, at a newsstand in Beijing, China August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

FILE PHOTO: A map showing locations where Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) will conduct military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills is seen on newspaper reports of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, at a newsstand in Beijing, China August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

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  • The bilateral relationship between the US and China has become more tense lately, noted DPM Lawrence Wong
  • He said that neither superpower wants war or conflict but that accidents or mistakes could lead to a rapid escalation
  • He added that the adversarial relationship between both sides is likely to stay "for quite some time"

SINGAPORE — The relationship between the United States and China is moving in a “very worrying” direction towards dangerous territory and both sides risk "sleepwalking into conflict", said Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

Mr Wong said this during an interview with Bloomberg News editor-in-chief John Micklethwait on Monday (Aug 15), in response to a question about a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan on Aug 2, which sparked anger and criticism from China.

A transcript of the interview was shared with other media outlets.

Mr Micklethwait had asked whether Mr Wong thought Ms Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was a miscalculation, or whether China's angry response to the visit was more of a miscalculation.

In response, Mr Wong said: "Clearly, the relationship is moving in a direction that we worry about and entering more dangerous territory... and although both sides say they do not want to go to war, they do not want conflict or confrontation, I think we are seeing an adversarial relationship between the two superpowers which is likely to stay for quite some time."

Because of the current heightened Sino-US tension, there is a higher risk that an accident or a miscalculation by either side could escalate very quickly, he added.

Mr Wong referenced a collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet in 2001, which killed the Chinese pilot and forced the American plane to make an emergency landing on the Chinese island of Hainan.

“That was many years ago when US-China relations were in a much better situation than today,” he noted.

If such an accident were to happen today, he said that the consequences may be more difficult to manage.

Mr Micklethwait then asked how likely Mr Wong think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be, noting that the former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command had recently told the US Congress that it could happen before 2027.

Mr Wong said that it is hard to say as the situation is getting more uncertain but he believes "Taiwan is certainly one flashpoint". 

"It can easily become very dangerous, as we have seen in recent events, and can even escalate quite quickly, not because either party deliberately wants this to happen, because... both sides understand the consequences and really do not want to go into conflict," he said.

"But as they say, no one deliberately wants to go into battle, but we sleepwalk into conflict, and that is the biggest problem and danger."

He added that the situation is not helped by domestic politics in the US and China, which make it difficult for either side to concede any ground, especially during this period.

The US, he noted, has its midterm elections in November this year, and China has its party congress which will be held in the second half of this year.

"With how things are unfolding now, we worry that there may be near misses, accidents, miscalculations, and things can get worse," Mr Wong added.

He also reiterated Singapore's stance on foreign relations, stating that the Republic conducts its own foreign policy based on its own vital and core interests in a principled manner. 

Mr Wong also pointed out that both the US and China “have an understanding” of what the one-China policy is supposed to be, and that understanding has enabled both sides to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait for many decades.

“But obviously the situation is starting to change, and it is partly because of the broader dynamics between US and China and the relationship between the two superpowers,” he said.

Mr Wong said that the US is concerned that “China is rising up and going to take over its place”, while China is concerned that “America is trying to contain (its) rise”.

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Lawrence Wong China Taiwan USA

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