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Less deadly, more infectious, Covid-19 is more like H1N1 than Sars: Lawrence Wong

SINGAPORE — The Covid-19 virus is “less severe and more infectious” than severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and is more similar to H1N1 in the way it is transmitted, National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said on Friday (Feb 14).

National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said on Feb 14, 2020 that various experts expect Covid-19 to spread at a faster rate than Sars, more like H1N1.

National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said on Feb 14, 2020 that various experts expect Covid-19 to spread at a faster rate than Sars, more like H1N1.

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SINGAPORE — The Covid-19 virus is “less severe and more infectious” than severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and is more similar to H1N1 in the way it is transmitted, National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said on Friday (Feb 14).

Speaking at a media briefing, Mr Wong noted that while Covid-19 is not a mild illness, it is “certainly not of the severity of Sars”, as the mortality rate of Covid-19 is much lower than that of Sars.

Sars killed about 10 per cent of those infected globally, while experts believe the mortality rate for Covid-19 is about 2 per cent, based on preliminary estimates.

However, Covid-19 is more infectious than Sars, with a transmission pattern that is similar to that of H1N1, he said. H1N1, also known as swine flu, struck in 2009.

“It is less severe and more infectious than Sars. It is different from Sars. Because of the higher degree of infection, various experts have also projected that disease may well spread at a faster rate, closer to that of H1N1,” he said.

He added that researchers from the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) had confirmed that Covid-19 is infectious when symptoms are mild. As such, like influenza, Covid-19 can also spread “quite quickly”.

Mr Wong noted that in Singapore alone, over 400,000 people were infected with H1N1 within the span of less than a year in 2009. A total of 18 people died in Singapore from H1N1.

“We’re not saying this will happen with Covid-19. It’s a different disease from H1N1… but because the transmission pattern is similar to H1N1, we should be prepared for a scenario where you get wider transmission around the world,” he said.

APPROACH MAY CHANGE AS GOVT LEARNS MORE ABOUT COVID-19

While there has been no widespread community transmission of the virus in Singapore or any other country other than China, Mr Wong said that this is a fast-changing situation.

He added that the Republic will review its risk assessment of Covid-19 as it receives new information on the virus each day.

For example, if there is widespread transmission but evidence grows that most cases of Covid-19 are mild, Singapore might move to a new approach of dealing with the virus, he said.

“If indeed there is widespread community transmission but if 80 per cent are mild cases, as is the case today, we are unlikely to continue contact tracing every single individual — there are just so many to contact trace. We will move away from that strategy,” he said.

“Instead, we will look at patients who come forward and the majority, who have mild symptoms, can see the general practitioner, take necessary precautions, rest at home and recover in due course. And the ones who are severe, maybe 20 per cent or hopefully a smaller percentage, then they will need more specialised treatment and they should go to the hospital. And among this group an even smaller percentage may need more acute care.”

This would be similar to the way Singapore deals with H1N1 influenza, Mr Wong said.

But he added: “We are not saying we are there yet. This is not our strategy today. Our strategy today is still to deal with the spread of the virus, which is the strategy that most countries are adopting.”

LOCAL CASES OF VIRUS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

Providing an update on the outbreak here, Associate Professor Kenneth Mak, director of medical services at the Ministry of Health (MOH), who was also present at the briefing, said that local cases of the virus are expected to rise over time, partly due to efforts to detect the virus early.

He added that the Government was concerned that many of the confirmed cases here had remained in the community or returned to work despite being ill and even after seeing a doctor.

“This is not helpful to reduce the risk of community transmission,” said Assoc Prof Mak, who added that MOH has given guidance to doctors to give patients who demonstrate respiratory symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat or runny nose with a medical certificate of up to five days so that the patients may recover.

NO PLANS TO RAISE DORSCON LEVEL TO RED

When asked if the Government was looking to move the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (Dorscon) level from Orange to Red, Health Minister Gan Kim Yong said that there were no plans to do so and that it was “challenging enough” to stop the spread of the virus.

“We don’t really want to spend effort in stopping the spread of rumours,” he said.

On Feb 7, the Ministry of Health (MOH) raised the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (Dorscon) alert level from Yellow to Orange leading to panic buying among Singaporeans, who had rushed to stock up on essential provisions in the last week.

“I want to say categorically that we have no plans to go to Dorscon Red so please help me stop these rumours moving forward so we can focus our efforts in dealing with our patients and support them,” he told reporters at the briefing.

Dorscon Red is adopted if a disease is considered severe and spreading widely. It is at Yellow if the disease is spreading in Singapore, but is only slightly more severe than the seasonal flu, or it is being contained.

When asked about the circumstances in which the Dorscon level will be lowered back to Yellow or Green, Mr Gan said that this will depend on many factors, such as whether the number of cases are growing or reducing, as well as the advice of medical professionals.

He added that the measures taken by the ministry are also not necessarily tied to Dorscon levels and that some measures may be rolled back even before downgrading Dorscon levels.

 

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Covid-19 Wuhan virus coronavirus swine flu SARS

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