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Malaysia-Singapore ties hold promise under new Mahathir-led government, despite past run-ins

SINGAPORE — Despite newly-minted Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s frosty attitude towards Singapore in the past, diplomats, international relations experts and other observers believe that the new Malaysian government will build a positive and mutually beneficial relationship with the Republic.

While some observers felt there is a chance that bilateral projects such as the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail could be called off, others said this was highly unlikely as they are governed by agreements and beneficial to Malaysians too.

While some observers felt there is a chance that bilateral projects such as the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail could be called off, others said this was highly unlikely as they are governed by agreements and beneficial to Malaysians too.

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SINGAPORE — Despite newly-minted Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's frosty attitude towards Singapore in the past, diplomats, international relations experts and other observers believe that the new Malaysian government will build a positive and mutually beneficial relationship with the Republic.

Nevertheless, they cited the possibility of delays or revisions to agreed terms regarding ongoing bilateral projects such as the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) — which is said to cost up to RM50 billion (S$16 billion) — and the Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link between Johor Baru and Singapore.

These are to be expected as the new administration reviews the country's deals with other countries struck by the previous government, said the observers.

While some of them felt there is a chance that the projects could be called off, others said this was highly unlikely as they are governed by agreements and beneficial to Malaysians too.

Ambassador-at-Large Ong Keng Yong, who was Singapore's High Commissioner to Malaysia from 2011 to 2014, said he expects "some adjustments" in the Mahathir-led government's approach towards foreign relations, but many ongoing bilateral projects have already been "covered by respective agreements with positive, welcoming sentiments (from the Malaysians)".

"The fact is that many aspects of the HSR agreements have already been discussed (and agreed upon) between Malaysia and Singapore over the last two years. We should look forward to working with the new government in Malaysia to bring forward what is mutually beneficial for both countries," Mr Ong said.

Dr Cassey Lee, who coordinates the Malaysia Studies Programme at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, said the new government's resolve to come down hard on corruption and strengthen the rule of law represent a "convergence" between Singapore and Malaysia.

"I am optimistic that the bilateral relations between the two countries will improve. The new government emphasises rule of law and governance. These are values that are dear and valued by Singapore," he said.

The observers' overall optimism on bilateral ties and co-operation stems from various factors, including the priority of the Mahathir administration to grow Malaysia's economy and its workers' wages — and Singapore will be a key partner in achieving this.

Dr Mahathir, 92, became Malaysia's longest-serving Prime Minister when he first held the office from 1981 to 2003. His first stint was marked by several high profile disagreements and run-ins with Singapore's founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.

Much has changed since then, the observers noted. Moreover, Dr Mahathir will be running the country — before Mr Anwar Ibrahim, 70, who is currently in jail, succeeds him — in concert with other leaders of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, including those from the influential Democratic Action Party (DAP) whose leaders are known to be on friendly terms with Singapore and its ruling People's Action Party (PAP).

"The bilateral relationship (under the new government) will still be a pragmatic one, but based more on mutual interests and each other's national interests," said Dr Oh Ei Sun, senior adviser at the Asia Strategy and Leadership Institute in Malaysia.

Dr Oh, who was formerly the political secretary of ousted leader Najib Razak, added: "Economic matters will always be prioritised. There are a number of Pakatan senior leaders, such as (DAP's) Tony Pua and Ong Kian Ming who have had experience in Singapore such as having lived there, so they would have some inputs into Malaysian policy towards Singapore."

Both Mr Pua and Mr Ong Kian Ming had studied in Raffles Institution and Raffles Junior College in the Republic, on the Singapore Government's Asean (Association of South-east Asian Nations) scholarship programme.

Mr Anwar was also recognised for his openness to foreign investors and free market principle when he was Malaysia's Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, and it was partly his staunch opposition against Dr Mahathir's protectionist policies that saw the pair fall out with each other previously.

"Anwar is more pragmatic in policymaking, having clashed with Dr Mahathir over bringing in International Monetary Fund loans in 1997 (during the Asian Financial Crisis). Anwar's reign will be similar to Najib's economically minus the kleptocratic practices," said Dr Oh.

Still, the country's ousted leader Najib Razak — who was Prime Minister for nine years before his Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition failed to secure a majority in Parliament in the elections earlier this week — oversaw an unprecedented golden period of bilateral ties between Malaysia and Singapore.

Among other things, Mr Najib and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong broke a 20-year-old deadlock on the 1990 Points of Agreement (POA) and subsequently inked pacts to develop the HSR and the RTS Link.

IMPACT ON BILATERAL COOPERATION

Dr Mahathir has pledged to review all mega projects — such as the HSR and the RM$55 billion East Coast Rail Link — sanctioned by BN under Mr Najib, labelling some of these as "wasteful" and "unnecessary".

While Singapore and Malaysia has signed a legally-binding agreement to build the 350km HSR link, Dr Mahathir said in an interview with The Sunday Times in January last year that the project was not a done deal if the opposition came to power.

"We need to do a study whether it is feasible or not because we don't have the money… We have to know whether we really need this HSR or not," he had said.

Asked about the HSR project during a press conference on Saturday (May 12), Dr Mahathir reiterated that the new government will review all agreements with other countries "to see how they favour us". "We want to benefit from those contracts and whatever decision we make will be based on a study," he added.

The tender for proposals to design, build, finance and maintain the rail assets has drawn strong interest from the private sector since it was called last December, with consortiums from China, Japan, South Korea and Europe throwing their names into the hat. The HSR's express service between the two cities is scheduled to start running by Dec 31, 2026.

Some observers are concerned that the project could be stalled, after Dr Mahathir's opposition coalition ended BN's uninterrupted 61-year rule.

Urban transport expert Park Byung Joon from the Singapore University of Social Sciences said: "I think the momentum cannot really be maintained… unless there is a clear word from (Dr Mahathir) that this project will go ahead as planned… It is not a nice thing to (unravel) agreements between the previous administration and Singapore's Government, but it is possible."

Still, Dr Park acknowledged that much work is already underway. "Another possibility may not be total cancellation (of the project), but the new Malaysian government might accord it lower priority if they do not find it to be as beneficial to their country and people (as they would have liked)," he said.

Apart from Dr Mahathir, other opposition figures in Malaysia had also questioned the wisdom of building the HSR, said Dr Mustafa Izzuddin from the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.

"They feel the money would be better invested in improving the railway system within Malaysia itself, which would bring direct domestic benefit to the people of Malaysia. We are therefore likely to see either the project being completely scrapped, and with that incurring a huge financial penalty; or a stalling of the project until the contract's terms and conditions are renegotiated to the liking of the Pakatan government," said Dr Mustafa, who is also associate editor of Contemporary Southeast Asia, a journal centred on strategic affairs in the region.

Dr Park expects the leadership changes to have less of an impact on the Johor Baru-Singapore RTS Link, the second cross-border rail agreement that the two countries have inked in two years, as a "substantial portion" of the RTS Link will involve construction on Singapore's soil.

Observers were divided on whether the longstanding dispute over the ownership of Pedra Branca, an island sitting at the entrance to the Singapore Strait and about 30km east of the city-state, would continue to be a thorn in bilateral relations. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is expected to hold public hearings next month on Malaysia's challenge to a 2008 judgement which ruled the tiny island to be Singapore territory.

Dr Mustafa felt that the new administration is likely to press on with its claims for Pedra Branca to further its "domestic, nationalist" agenda. "This would of course not bode well for bilateral relations," he said.

However, former Member of Parliament Inderjit Singh from the PAP noted that both sides have agreed to abide by the ICJ's ruling. Even if either side decides to mount a challenge after that, Mr Singh is confident that this issue is not likely to sour overall ties.

BROADER TIES

On Friday, Malaysia's Home Affairs Minister-designate Muhyiddin Yassin told the media that the relationship between Malaysia and Singapore is likely to become more friendly.

"We have to have good relations with all our neighbours, and of course Singapore has always been special — not only to Johor, but the whole of Malaysia," said the Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) president at a press conference in Johor. "The Republic is an important trading partner. We have a long-established trade relationship and most of our goods are sold to Singapore."

Among other things, PH's 138-page manifesto, unveiled on the eve of the country's 14th General Election, pledged to tackle the rising cost of living, stimulate economic growth, and ensure a fairer distribution of national wealth.

"I am optimistic that Dr Mahathir will work well with our government this time. If indeed he is sincere in wanting to come back and fix issues the past Malaysian government created, then he will do what is right for Malaysia. And working with Singapore on mutually beneficial projects will be the right thing to do," said Mr Singh, the former PAP MP.

Based on data from the Malaysian Investment Development Authority, Singapore was the third largest foreign direct investor in Malaysia last year, after China and Switzerland, contributing about 8.6 per cent of foreign direct investment inflows.

Mr Rashaad Ali, a research analyst with the Malaysia Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), expects Dr Mahathir to deal with cross-border collaborations "with a firmer hand" than Mr Najib, given his concerns that the former Prime Minister "has not always acted in Malaysia's interest".

"But (Dr Mahathir) is unlikely to be as confrontational as he was (to Singapore) compared to his last tenure," said Mr Rashaad.

Dr Mahathir had crossed swords with Mr Lee Kuan Yew over multiple issues during his first stint as Malaysia's Prime Minister. These included the relocation of Singapore's customs and immigration facilities from Tanjong Pagar to Woodlands, in a bid to stop drug traffickers from tossing drugs out of train windows. Despite Dr Mahathir confirming the move to Woodlands in April 1992, Malaysia decided in June 1997 to retain its Customs, Immigration and Quarantine post at Tanjong Pagar.

Dr Mahathir also called Mr Lee "kiasu" for refusing to budge on some bilateral negotiations, and attributed it to how Mr Lee's relationship with Malaysia was "coloured with bitterness" after Singapore was expelled from the federation in 1965.

Among other things, Dr Mahathir often took aim at Singapore's control over free speech while Mr Lee criticised Malaysia's race-based politics.

It was only in 2010 that PM Lee and Mr Najib managed to settle outstanding issues related to the POA signed on Nov 27, 1990 — a day before Mr Lee stepped down as Prime Minister.

With a "radically different" political landscape now, Dr Mahathir is likely to bury the hatchet, said Mr Rashaad.

"If he wants to make right the wrongs of the previous administration, this is a priority best served by collaboration with Singapore… If he goes back to his confrontational style, it would be foolish on his part," he added.

Dr Khadijah Khalid from the University of Malaya's International Institute Of Public Policy & Management said Malaysia's foreign policy now "will take into account greater democratic space" following the watershed elections.

"Malaysia-Singapore relations will not be too personalised, or based on whims and fancies, but will be more dictated by pragmatism and driven by the interests of the ordinary rakyat (people)," said Dr Khadijah.

Dr Lee, from the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, reiterated that the governing coalition would likely be making foreign policy decisions by consensus.

Agreeing, Dr Denison Jayasooria from the National University of Malaysia pointed out that the PH alliance consists of other significant stakeholders, in addition to the PPBM which is chaired by Dr Mahathir.

"It is not the case where Bersatu is a singular voice. You have others from the DAP who might tone down on some of these issues," said Dr Denison, a principal research fellow at the university's Institute of Ethnic Studies.

Dr Denison also noted that Mr Anwar is likely to pursue healthy relations with Singapore, after he assumes the premiership.

Dr Mahathir said on Friday that Malaysia's King has agreed to pardon Mr Anwar who is expected to be released from prison in the coming week, and observers believe it could take another one to two years for Mr Anwar — who has to stand for election — to take over the top job.

Mr Anwar, who was formerly Dr Mahathir's deputy during his first tenure, was sacked in 1998 over differences with the government on the economic recovery plan during the Asian Financial Crisis.

The IMF had prescribed a series of rescue packages for the nations affected by the crisis that would involve them receiving fiscal assistance from the fund.

While Mr Anwar supported the IMF's proposal, Dr Mahathir declined external assistance and wanted to handle the crisis on his own terms, by pegging the ringgit against the United States dollar and boosting government spending.

Mr Anwar was later jailed on charges of sodomy and graft, in what is seen by many as a politically motivated move.

The pair has since made up, paving the way for Dr Mahathir to lead the opposition coalition to the stunning electoral victory.

Mr David Han, a senior analyst at RSIS' Malaysia Programme, said Mr Anwar is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach to bilateral ties: "Najib was willing to put aside past enmity to promote good relations, and he did not allow sensitive and thorny issues to come in the way of co-operation. However, Anwar could be more critical and openly vocal if he perceives Singapore's actions and behaviour towards Malaysia as impinging on Malaysia's national interests."

RETURN OF AN 'INFLUENTIAL VOICE' FOR ASEAN

During Dr Mahathir's first stint as Prime Minister, he was an outspoken critic of the United States. In the run-up to the General Election, he has also lashed out at Mr Najib for selling Malaysia out to China.

Under Mr Najib's watch, Malaysia became one of the largest beneficiaries of Chinese investment commitments in Asia, securing US$34.2 billion (S$45.4 billion) of Belt and Road Initiative-related infrastructure projects.

Observers said that Mr Mahathir's earlier retirement in 2003 — which coincided with Mr Lee Kuan Yew stepping out of the international spotlight — had left something of a vacuum in Asean leadership.

His comeback could result in a pushback of the superpowers' influence in the region, and this bodes well for Asean as a whole, they added.

"I do see Dr Mahathir and Anwar taking a more hardline stance and pushing back China's influence in the region," said Mr Singh. "Asean can do with more strong leaders and Dr Mahathir's (leadership) may be good for the region."

Still, Dr Mustafa pointed out that Malaysia is not oblivious to China's rise as an economic giant.

"It is a mistake to think that Mahathir is anti-China or is opposed to Chinese investing in Malaysia... (It) will still see China as an economic powerhouse through which Malaysia's economy can benefit by striking trade and investment deals with China, but perhaps not to the extent that Najib's government had done so in the past. PH will take a more cautious approach towards Malaysia's relations with China," said Dr Mustafa.

Dr Mahathir's assertiveness may not only help further Asean's interest on the international stage, but also get things moving quicker within the regional grouping, said Mr Rasaad.

However, he stressed that whether this would have any material impact remains to be seen, given Asean's principle of "non-interference" in the internal affairs of fellow member states.

Dr Oh, from Malaysia's Asia Strategy and Leadership Institute, called Dr Mahathir "the most prominent figure to lead Asean", while RSIS analyst Mr Han added: "(Dr Mahathir's) re-emergence could arouse sentiments of what Asean should really (be like), a strong and united group that seeks to ensure its neutrality and non-alignment in the midst of big power politics."

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