News analysis: Singapore’s historic low fertility rate not worrying yet, with clearer sign to come for 2024 Year of the Dragon

SINGAPORE — Despite Singapore's total fertility rate hitting a historic low of 1.05 in 2022, sociologists said that this figure is not alarming given that it fell in the Year of the Tiger when birth rates traditionally plunge. They also observed that the dip last year was not as high as those in the past when it was the Year of the Tiger. 

A clearer indicator of whether birth rates are truly on a significant decline will be when the statistics are released for the 2024 Year of the Dragon.

The Year of the Dragon is traditionally a time when birth rates in Singapore tend to jump, because it is seen as an auspicious year for some Chinese families who go by the horoscope that is linked to the Chinese lunar calendar. The 12 animal signs of the zodiac go through a cycle for those who consult the Chinese almanac.

The sociologists also said that factors such as persistent inflation, the country's emergence from the Covid-19 pandemic and delayed housing and marriage plans have also contributed to the decline in 2022. 

During her speech in Parliament on Friday (Feb 24), Ms Indranee Rajah, who is Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, said that Singapore’s total fertility rate hit a historic low of 1.05 in 2022, down from 1.12 in 2021. 

The National Population and Talent Division is part of the Prime Minister’s Office.

The previous record low was in 2020, when the birth rate then was 1.10. 

The replacement level fertility — which is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next — is 2.1. 

WHAT MAY HAVE CAUSED DECLINE IN BIRTH RATES

The low fertility rate during the Year of the Tiger is not a new phenomenon. 

Associate Professor Daniel Goh, a sociologist from the National University of Singapore (NUS), said the trend has been that there is a peak in the birth rates every Year of the Dragon, with a corresponding decline every Year of the Tiger.

"This is because the majority of the population here is Chinese, so the cultural effect of the zodiac creates this cyclical trend."

Even though the fertility rate dropped from 1.12 in 2021 to 1.05 in 2022, the decline of 0.07 has been the same if not steeper in the past years when it was the Year of the Tiger: 

• In 2010, the fertility rate fell to 1.15, from 1.22 in 2009, a decline of 0.07
• In 1998, the fertility rate fell to 1.48, from 1.61 in 1997, a decline of 0.13
• In 1986, the fertility rate fell to 1.43, from 1.61 in 1985, a decline of 0.18

Sociologist Paulin Straughan of the Singapore Management University said that another factor at play is the uncertain global and economic environment faced by prospective parents in the last few years, where the population weathered a pandemic before being slapped with high inflation during the Ukraine-Russian war. 

"The (low birth rate) is not surprising as we have had a couple of really hard years," she said. "It makes us ponder about whether we should make long-term investments, and long-term investments include family formation." 

However, NUS sociologist Tan Ern Ser disagreed that the effect of the Year of the Tiger is a "strong reason" for the decline in fertility rate, and believes that there are deeper issues.

"An equally strong reason is that couples think of raising a child as a long-term commitment, involving time and energy, which a dual-income couple may not be able to spare," he said. 

WHAT OTHER SIGNS TO LOOK FOR IN BIRTH TRENDS

For a more accurate reflection of whether birth rates are indeed on an accelerated decline, the experts suggested looking at the numbers next year, which will be the Year of the Dragon.

If the rates remain constant or do not go up significantly in 2024, that would be a real cause for concern since an increase should be expected. 

“If it's a big uptick, then you'll have some hope," Assoc Prof Goh said.

They added that the coming years, should they bring economic stability, will also be a better indicator of Singapore's long-term fertility trends. 

Associate Professor Kang Soon-Hock, vice-dean and head of the Behavioural Science Core at the Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS), said similarly that people may have delayed their plans to have children during this uncertain period.

"Once things stabilise, with macro events like the Ukraine war, for example, then there will be a trickle-down effect, the global economy might be better and people may have less anxieties and may take that next step," he added. 

HAVE GOVERNMENT MEASURES HELPED?

With the fertility figures falling over the last few decades, the experts noted that the Government has already provided a comprehensive suite of policies and incentives to boost birth rates.

However, the decision to have children is complex for modern-day individuals, especially those in affluent societies.

Assoc Prof Goh said that a low birth rate is a common occurrence for many developed countries, where citizens prioritise their career advancement and wealth over having children. 

Prof Straughan said that the norms of younger couples may have shifted, where people have “valorised” marriage — meaning place an enhanced value on marriage — to the point where they do not want to settle early but find the "right" partner. 

"They would just go through life with good friends, where being single is not a big deal," she said. 

She added that even among couples who are married, there is a trend where couples want to enjoy "couplehood" before they consider starting a family, unlike older generations who tended to perceive childbirth as a next step after marriage.  

Assoc Prof Goh said that although government financial measures such as the extension of the Baby Bonus and changes to the Working Mother Child Relief could help some women consider having children, he believes that the move to double paternity leave from two to four weeks could have the biggest impact. 

"It empowers women to make decisions where they have more equality with men, and they feel like 'it's more worth it to have a baby as I don't have to do a double shift, and my husband is supporting me'." 

WHAT IF BIRTH RATES CONTINUE TO DROP?

An ageing population with fewer young people to take care of the older ones is a long-term outcome of the fall in fertility rates.

The medium-term impact, though, will be on Singapore's labour force. 

"Twenty years down the road, you'll probably see a smaller pool of younger workers," Assoc Prof Kang from SUSS said.

He added that this will have the inadvertent effect of Singapore having to look outside its borders for talent to run its economy, and this could begin through the adjustment of foreign worker ratios for certain industries. 

"If you have a smaller group of younger workers, then companies will have to start looking elsewhere and perhaps see if they can bring in foreign workers."