PE 2023: ‘Tharman effect’ behind landslide win that will raise expectations of his presidency, say analysts

SINGAPORE — Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam's landslide victory in the Presidential Election is a clear reflection of his immense popularity and the effectiveness of his campaign, but the strong mandate he has received means that expectations will also be high for him to make good on his promises to voters, analysts said.

The former Cabinet minister has garnered repeated solid wins for the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) when contesting the General Elections in his stomping ground of Jurong Group Representation Constituency.

However, political observers noted that the Presidential Election is a different ballgame, adding that Mr Tharman’s 70.4 per cent vote share in a three-cornered fight and on the national stage is remarkable.

His rivals Ng Kok Song and Tan Kin Lian received 15.72 per cent and 13.88 per cent of the more than 2.4 million votes cast respectively.

Dr Felix Tan from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) said that much of the numbers could be chalked up to the “Tharman effect”.

“Over the many years, with a lot of people saying and hoping that Mr Tharman would become our next Prime Minister… that sort of support has resulted in what we saw (on Sept 1).”

Dr Tan, whose research interests cover Southeast Asian politics, said that beyond reflecting Mr Tharman's popularity as a politician, the landslide victory also shows that he had received strong buy-in from voters for his campaign message, that he is an independent thinker despite his years as a career civil servant and PAP minister.

“Even though there were a lot of establishment versus anti-establishment sentiments during the campaigning period, I think that the level of support for Mr Tharman reflects that he is (seen as) an independent candidate — or an independent enough candidate — away from the establishment.”  

Noting that Mr Tharman had just resigned from PAP in July, Associate Professor Eugene Tan of Singapore Management University said that he had a “very short transition” to showcase that he had other qualities to offer that were more compelling and important than his prior party affiliation.

“I think it was his own personal qualities — that reputation for being independent-minded,” Assoc Prof Tan said on what ultimately helped Mr Tharman win such a landslide. 

Assoc Prof Tan, who was a former Nominated Member of Parliament, added that the results showed that Singaporeans did not see the Presidential Election as a proxy-General Election (GE), and that Mr Tharman managed to garner votes from those who would typically vote for opposition parties in a GE.

This was because a third of Singaporeans typically vote for the Opposition at GEs, yet Mr Tan Kin Lian, whose campaign was endorsed by several opposition leaders, only garnered 13.88 per cent of the votes. 

“The call (by opposition figures) to try to get their supporters, their members, to vote for Mr Tan Kian Lian obviously didn't have that much traction,” Assoc Prof Tan added.

Rather, analysts noted that Mr Tan’s campaign strategy had an opposite effect — voters found these calls too “polarising”, thereby resulting in a big swing towards Mr Tharman, who represents familiarity and reliability.

Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, senior international affairs analyst at consultancy firm Solaris Strategies Singapore, said the overall results showed that voters in the middle ground erred on the side of caution.

WHAT NEXT FOR PRESIDENT THARMAN?

Analysts who spoke to TODAY agreed that entering the highest office here with such a high vote share, all eyes would be on Mr Tharman to deliver the promises that he had made during his campaign.

“I think the test is now on him to lead and for him to deliver on the pledges, and also to carry out his presidential duties in the way that he is expected to do,” Dr Mustafa said. 

Assoc Prof Tan said: “I think we will have to believe that Mr Tharman will have the heart and also the kind of tenacity to push his campaign slogan across. I think, let the man show Singaporeans what he meant by that. I think he has the next five years to do so and we will hold him responsible for these promises that he has made.”

These promises include uplifting society, helping the less fortunate, engendering deeper respect among Singaporeans for one another and being a good representative for the country on the international stage.

Dr Mustafa said of Mr Tharman’s message that he can help Singapore stand strong on the world stage: “Obviously, he has an international standing but (this election) reaffirms the diligence, support and confidence that Singaporeans have in him to represent them abroad.”

He also said it is highly unlikely that Mr Tharman would have made empty promises, and foresees his strong mandate helping him achieve these pledges “more effectively”. 

However, the next few years of Mr Tharman’s presidency will be a “litmus test” of his ability to deliver, he added. 

Assoc Prof Tan said that this strong mandate puts Mr Tharman in a good position to have a healthy dynamic with the fourth generation (4G) of Singapore’s political leaders, led by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

“We are in the midst of a leadership renewal and succession. I think if I were on the 4G team, I would certainly want to leverage the counsel, the experience and the expertise of Mr Tharman,” he added.

“I think there will be mutual respect and confidence, as long as the Government continues to do what it is supposed to do.”