‘Ultimate losers’ game’ if countries asked to take sides between US, China: Ng Eng Hen

SINGAPORE — Should the day come that countries are made to choose between China and the United States in technology, trade, or security matters, the world would be mired in “the ultimate losers’ game” and a “race to diminishing benefits for all concerned”.

Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen made this sobering statement in a speech wrapping up the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday (June 2).

The current challenge for the two world powers, he said, lies in how they offer “inclusive and overarching moral justification” for all countries to accept their dominance beyond military might.

“Both countries have cited security as the basis for their current positions — the US in trade, and China in the South China Sea.

“But whatever the underlying motivations, for either countries, if America First or China’s rise is perceived to be lopsided against the national interests of other countries, or the collective good, the acceptance of US’ or China’s dominance will be diminished,” he said.

This year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual high-level security summit which ran from Friday to Sunday, came amid an escalating trade war between China and the US, which saw both sides imposing extra tariffs on billions of dollars of each other’s goods. Acting US Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan and China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe are in town for the talks.

Dr Ng noted that the existing global order has ensured peace and progress in the past 70 years, and it “would be egregious folly to throw this baby out with the bath water”.

The “crystal ball... is now densely fogged", he remarked, as US foreign policy takes on a new trajectory, encapsulated in the “America First” narrative which takes the position that the US had been taken advantage of.

Calling it a “disruptive change”, Dr Ng said many questions now abound, including whether the multilateral trading systems can survive, especially when they clash with the US-led trading blocs and China-dependent economies.

He also spoke about the uncertainty of what pressures China might put on other countries that are economically dependent on it, and whether the Communist Party of China would shore up its political legitimacy if its economy slows.

In a question-and-answer session following his speech, Dr Ng warned against creating a world dominated by two or three blocs “with parallel lines and strong divisions between them”.

“Once you have (that), you are set up for conflict, which is what happened in the Cold War, which is what happened in Europe, with alliances for World War One and World War Two, because (countries are) forced to choose sides… We are clear what is at stake,” he said.

Pointing out that Singapore had come from a position of ultimate realists and work as ultimate optimists throughout the Dialogue, Dr Ng said: “We want to maintain the current system. We still believe that multilateral trade arrangements are not only important for economic dependencies, for economic health, but indeed for security.

“Because if I trade a lot with you, indeed, it is quite hard for me to fight with you.”

Earlier on Sunday, General Wei ramped up the rhetoric in the ongoing trade war between China and the US in a plenary session, saying that if the US wants to fight, China “will fight to the end” and not be bullied.

“Talk? You are welcome. Fight? We are ready. Bully us? No way,” he retorted a day after Mr Shanahan slammed “actors” who seek to undermine the international order through activities such as influence operations and militarising disputed areas.

Asked by TODAY what he thought of General Wei’s speech on Sunday morning, Dr Ng said: “I didn’t think it was rhetoric.”

“I thought he was very clear on where China was willing and wanting to work at,” he added.

Commenting on the usefulness of discussions that had materialised across the past three days, he said the presence of US and China was critical. Almost all the participants he met at the summit had told him that they were “very thankful that both came” and expressed hope that both would continue to come for every Shangri-La Dialogue, he added.

Dr Ng also noted that no one had given feedback that difficult issues were skirted around.

“They were to the point. They were direct speeches by both Acting Secretary Shanahan and General Wei. I would rather have that than just motherhood and just general statements that didn’t address issues,” he said.

Pointing out that the other delegates also want “frank and direct” exchanges, he said: “I think that is positive, the fact that we want that means there is a certain level of comfort and, in that sense, optimism that we would at least articulate the issues. Then perhaps we can — if not deal with them completely — reduce the differences.”