Working in the Age of Robots

On May Day, we think of workers united in purpose and solidarity. People of all backgrounds together as one.

But the world today poses special challenges to working men and women. What happens when a robot or computer can do a human job?

It’s a big issue not just for blue-collar work, but also for skilled jobs and knowledge-based industries. The same algorithms that power face recognition and image search can easily be repurposed towards reading X-Rays and CT scans — a task performed today by doctors with years of medical training.

As James Bessen argues in a recent edition of The Atlantic, technology does not so much replace workers; it displaces workers to jobs with different skill sets. A robot can replace an assembly-line worker, but even robots need operators, programmers and a supply chain. Every technology platform has its developers, innovators and skilled employees.

This global technology shift will be one of the great tests of our generation.

Countries that cannot meet the challenge will face a situation of job replacement and declining wages, as opportunities, careers and industries are displaced and move elsewhere. In this dystopian scenario, redistribution — however well meant — will merely allocate ever-smaller pieces of a shrinking, stale pie.

Redistribution is integral to any fair and equitable socio-economic system. However, to do the most good, redistribution needs to go beyond sustenance. It should be matched with job, industry and economic redevelopment — investing in people in sustainable ways to build potential for growth. And the best time to invest is when resources are available.

Some innovations are incremental. Others are disruptive and can render entire industries obsolete. Survival depends on whether one can adjust in time.

IBM previously manufactured personal computers. But with competitors multiplying around the world, margins became thinner and thinner. It was clear that making a cheaper, better, faster PC would not be enough. By pivoting away from mass-market hardware and becoming a software and services company, IBM has found a new lease of life.

In contrast, Kodak did not (or did not want to) see the opportunities in digital photography and the threat it posed to traditional film. Clinging onto an outdated technology and obsolete business model, it eventually filed for bankruptcy.

Closer to home, the consumer shopping sector is ripe for disruption. Shopping malls and their shopfronts have high overheads due to staffing costs, land scarcity and landlords seeking to maximise rents. Imagine the impact of an Amazon equivalent with 24-hour one-click ordering, after-hours home delivery, plus the economies of scale that come with central warehousing and cutting out middlemen. All this has implications for REITs and their investors too.

We must also not miss opportunities to build world-beaters at home. Whats-App, an instant messaging platform, is an elegant example of disruptive innovation. By using your phone number as your identifier, it simplifies account creation and contact searching. With group chat, multimedia messaging and now Internet telephony, it is no surprise that Facebook paid US$19 billion (S$25.2 billion) to acquire it. Imagine if a group of savvy Singaporean innovators had invented WhatsApp first.

AVOIDING JOB-MARKET FAILURE

Job-market failure occurs when skillsets and job openings do not match. Sadly, this is too often a feature of economic transition, as national economies face technological disruption and industries churn. But this does not have to be so.

For Singapore, SkillsFuture is a potential game-changer. Announced in Budget 2015, it is a major new investment in Singaporeans’ education and training. SkillsFuture encompasses many programmes over a worker’s lifetime, from career counselling and internships for students to training for workers in their mature years.

In many countries, workers worry about investing in skills upgrading as they may not translate into better wages or prospects. Or there may be opportunity cost in lost income, especially for workers holding down multiple jobs. Employers need help too. Small businesses may lack the resources to support workers’ upskilling. In a tight job market with rapid churn, some bosses may be wary of investing in a worker who is unlikely to commit for the long term. Public-spiritedness and long-term thinking are not easy when the bottom line is tight and a business is fighting for survival.

SkillsFuture can help overcome these hurdles, by lowering financial and administrative barriers that get in the way of training and upskilling.

Place-and-Train and Learn-and-Earn programmes improve access to on-the-job exposure while helping workers and employers make more informed choices about job fit.

Individual SkillsFuture Credit accounts are an important step forward as they make resource investments portable. Rather than being tied to the job, the benefits follow the worker through their life journey. Individual Learning Portfolios provide a worker-centric perspective on training needs — especially helpful when the employer does not have a formal HR department of its own.

A worker-centric and skills-centric philosophy can help build a culture where opportunities and learning are lifelong, rather than being decided by how one starts in life. It will be important for public sector agencies and government-linked companies to walk this talk in their own human resource practices.

A resourceful government can prevent market failure, so that vicious circles become virtuous outcomes: By helping match better-informed workers with opportunities, building more paths for workers to upskill and creating the economic conditions to attract the jobs and industries of tomorrow.

The age of robots and intelligent technology will be a major challenge for all developed economies. But it is also an opening for small, nimble countries like Singapore to leap ahead.

Thanks to past fiscal discipline, we have the wherewithal to spend on tackling challenging problems. This is a luxury that many developed economies do not have.

Tripartite teamwork is a force multiplier too. In this journey, we all have a role: Workers with hearts full of dynamism, spirit and true grit, with minds open to being upskilled, ready for new jobs and growing into future careers; employers looking not at the sunset of old industries, but chasing the sunrise with innovative business practices that recognise new technological and economic realities; a government constantly reviewing, refreshing and upgrading policy, so that the economic ecosystem is ready to host new industries and new jobs.

If all of us continue to give our best together, Singapore’s future will remain bright, no matter what comes. ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Tan Wu Meng is a medical doctor. He writes in a personal capacity.