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Premature to decide in mid-June on move to Phase 2 of reopening of economy

In a press briefing by the multi-ministry Covid-19 task force on Thursday (May 28), National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said the Government would monitor the situation, particularly in the first two weeks of June, and decide by mid-June whether to move to Phase 2 of the post-circuit-breaker period, when more activities can resume.

The writer says the Government should base its decision to resume more activities on the Covid-19 situation in the third week of June and reach a conclusion by end-June.

The writer says the Government should base its decision to resume more activities on the Covid-19 situation in the third week of June and reach a conclusion by end-June.

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In a press briefing by the multi-ministry Covid-19 task force on Thursday (May 28), National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said the Government would monitor the situation, particularly in the first two weeks of June, and decide by mid-June whether to move to Phase 2 of the post-circuit-breaker period, when more activities can resume.

That means Phase 2 could happen before the end of June.

I do not understand the rationale behind monitoring the situation in the first two weeks of June and making a decision by the middle of the month.

The incubation period between infection and the manifestation of symptoms — and hence detection — could be days, but might, on some occasions, be two weeks or more.

Data from the circuit breaker shows that this lag could be almost three weeks. For example, after the circuit breaker measures kicked in on April 7, we observed a significant decrease in community cases — to low double digits — only from April 28.

Also, after measures to further limit business activity and people movement were rolled out on April 21, we saw a further sustained drop in community cases only from the week of May 10.

Hence, the situation in the first two weeks of June will likely largely reflect the level of infection during the last week of the circuit breaker.

New infections arising from Phase 1 of the reopening, which starts on June 2, will probably manifest and be detected only two or three weeks later.

Thus, monitoring the situation over the first two weeks of June, and making a decision by mid-June, seems premature.

The critical period to track might well be the third week of June, and a decision should be made only at the end of June.

The Government should take a cautious approach, as it has repeatedly emphasised, and not send mixed signals.

Have views on this issue or a news topic you care about? Send your letter to voices [at] mediacorp.com.sg with your full name, address and phone number.

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circuit breaker Covid-19 coronavirus Lawrence Wong

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