TPP in dire straits as US voters turn their backs on trade
SINGAPORE — The election of Mr Donald Trump into the Oval Office could spell the death knell of the landmark Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact, as the Republican President-elect has made it clear that he is against further global trade liberalisation that does not benefit ordinary Americans.
Trade ministers and officials from the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) member nations at the signing ceremony in Auckland. Reuters file photo
SINGAPORE — The election of Mr Donald Trump into the Oval Office could spell the death knell of the landmark Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact, as the Republican President-elect has made it clear that he is against further global trade liberalisation that does not benefit ordinary Americans.
Mr Trump’s stunning march to the White House also raises questions on how the global trade picture will look like going forward, as fears mount over the possibility of a more protectionist America.
“It will be a long winding path to get it (TPP) back even if it’s not dead. To me, it either will be long delayed or Asians need to figure out what else they need to do,” Associate Professor Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told TODAY.
He noted that, going forward, some American companies may still be interested in Asia but, on the whole, he expected the United States to turn its back to this part of the world.
Mr Dwight Hutchins, chairman of the board of governors at the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Singapore, told CNBC on Wednesday (Nov 9) that “the biggest thing we’re concerned about is the TPP”.
“We need to make them (Congress and the President) understand that 95 per cent of the world’s consumers are outside the US and we need to be playing out in that marketplace, so the TPP will help,” Mr Hutchins said.
The TPP — which covers around 40 per cent of the world’s global output and is now pending ratification by 12 nations — has been strongly opposed by both Mr Trump and his rival, Mrs Hillary Clinton.
It is a key plank of President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia and he has pledged to use the little remaining time of his term to win congressional approval for the trade pact. But that now looks unlikely.
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said on Wednesday that Canberra will continue to urge the US Congress to ratify the TPP before Mr Trump’s swearing-in in January.
“We are concerned that both candidates were opposed to the agreement in its current form,” she said.
Mr Trump has vowed to stop the TPP and wants to renegotiate the deal, despite other world leaders highlighting that reopening negotiations would only unravel the entire package.
Singapore has been among those which has called on the US to ratify the TPP soon. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said last month that a failure to do so will be a big blow to America and its credibility, given that Vietnam and Japan had made difficult domestic arrangements to sign the TPP. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is currently pushing for it to be ratified by Parliament in Japan.
The TPP will take effect 60 days after all 12 countries ratify it. If all the nations have not ratified it in two years, it will enter into force 60 days after at least six countries, accounting for 85 per cent of the combined gross domestic product of the 12 signatories, do so.
Asked about prospects of the TPP dimming under a Trump presidency, Japan’s chief Cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga said the US “confirmed that they will aim to ratify it as soon as possible”.
He added: “We understand that President Obama is making full efforts to pass the Bill within this year.”
Japan, he said, would “of course” pass the trade Bill.
Dr Kanti Prasad Bajpai, Wilmar Professor on Asian Studies at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said that although the TPP is in serious trouble, the US still needs to engage geopolitically with Asia as China rises. “Trump may have to resurrect a regional trade deal even if he calls it something else,” he added.
Mr Bilahari Kausikan, an Ambassador-At-Large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, noted that the Republican leadership is close to American businesses and essentially supports free trade.
“What we do not know is how the Republican leadership will interact with President Trump and how the Republican leadership will deal with its own members who may hop on the Trump bandwagon,” he said, adding that he did not think Mr Trump will make a U-turn on his anti-trade stance.
“But how it will be implemented in practice remains to be seen. It is actually contradictory to his America First rhetoric. American companies have been among the greatest beneficiaries of globalisation.” WITH AGENCIES
