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Trump’s ‘tremendous success’ abroad is overstated

WASHINGTON — United States President Donald Trump marked his return from a five-country tour of Asia by recounting on Wednesday (Nov 16) its “tremendous success” and that of his other trips abroad.

United States President Donald Trump speaks about his recent trip to Asia. But some of his statements don’t hold much water. Photo: AFP

United States President Donald Trump speaks about his recent trip to Asia. But some of his statements don’t hold much water. Photo: AFP

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WASHINGTON — United States President Donald Trump marked his return from a five-country tour of Asia by recounting on Wednesday (Nov 16) its “tremendous success” and that of his other trips abroad.

Deterred only by a struggle to quench his thirst, Mr Trump listed numerous achievements against terrorism and for US workers in claiming that “America is back.”

But some of those statements don’t hold much water. Here’s an assessment.

 

He spoke of dealing the Islamic State (IS) ‘one crushing defeat after another’ since his meeting with Arab allies.

In detailing his May trip to Saudi Arabia, Mr Trump said he spoke about “our strategy to defeat terrorists by stripping them of financing, territory and ideological support” and urged Arab states to drive terrorists from their societies.

It is true that the IS has lost significant territory, including its de facto capital in Syria, “since that time,” as Mr Trump said. But the extremist group had begun losing territory well before Mr Trump’s trip to Riyadh, and he has largely kept to plans laid out under President Barack Obama.

 

He exaggerated when he suggested that ‘billions and billions of dollars are pouring’ into Nato at his urging.

After repeatedly criticising other countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) for not paying their fair share to the military alliance, Mr Trump has since claimed credit for changing the trend.

He said on Wednesday that “Nato, believe me, is very happy with Donald Trump and what I did.”

Under Nato guidelines, member states agreed to commit a minimum of 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to the organisation’s defence efforts, but few nations actually do so.

The secretary general of the alliance, Mr Jens Stoltenberg, said in July that five countries contributed at least 2 per cent of their GDP. He said he expected Romania to reach the benchmark this year, and Latvia and Lithuania to next year.

While it is conceivable that Mr Trump ushered along the process, efforts to address the disparity predated his complaints. Members that were not meeting that bar of 2 per cent pledged in September 2014 — largely because of Russian actions that were continuing — to do so over the next decade.

 

He overstated the overall American trade deficit.

Mr Trump said that during his Asia trip, he gave a firm warning to every country “that cheats, breaks the rules and engages in economic aggression,” which, he said, is why “we have almost an US$800 billion (S$1.08 trillion) a year trade deficit with other nations.”

That figure is accurate when examining only the trade balance in goods, about US$750 billion last year.

Trade in services, however, reduced the overall deficit to US$505 billion.

The total trade deficit has actually increased under Mr Trump’s watch — to US$405 billion during the first nine months of 2017, compared with US$370 billion during the first nine months of 2016.

 

He noted economic growth trends that predate his presidency.

Mr Trump ticked off several accurate economic metrics: The unemployment rate is at its lowest level in nearly 17 years, the economy grew at over 3 per cent in the last two quarters, and the stock market has been soaring. What he omits, however, is that those trends began under the Obama administration.

Almost all of the decline in the unemployment rate happened under Obama’s watch. It peaked at 10 per cent in 2009, dropped to 4.8 per cent by the time Mr Trump took office and continued to decline to 4.1 per cent in October.

Similarly, GDP growth in the last two quarters — 3 per cent and 3.1 per cent — is certainly healthy but on par with numbers posted in the last three years.

 

He said Japan will make arms purchases ‘worth many billions,’ but Japan disputes that.

Mr Trump played up Japan’s commitment to its own defence capabilities and suggested that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose name he mispronounced, had agreed to “purchases of US advanced capabilities, from jet fighters to missile defense.”

It is possible that Japan agreed to the arms sale, but if Mr Trump and Mr Abe did strike a deal, it would be in a very preliminary stage in a process that could take years.

The Pentagon’s Defence Security Cooperation Agency has yet to notify Congress of any intended sale, which must happen before negotiations can begin.

Japanese officials have also pushed back at the notion. In a report in The Japan Times last week, the Japanese chief Cabinet secretary, Mr Yoshihide Suga, said that Tokyo was following its existing defence procurement plan that was approved more than three years before Trump took office.

 

He claimed US$250 billion in deals with China, a figure that includes nonbinding agreements.

The Commerce Department’s breakdown of the US$250 billion package includes several deals that are not guaranteed to proceed. For example, an US$8 billion natural gas project and US$83 billion in shale development projects were both agreed to in non-binding memorandums of understanding.

The breakdown also lists a US$38 billion agreement for Boeing to supply China with 300 aircraft, which is in line with its 20-year forecast, and US$2.2 billion in sales from General Motors (GM) to Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp, a large automaker in China that has a joint venture with GM. THE NEW YORK TIMES

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