SINGAPORE — The expected win by Indonesia's defence minister Prabowo Subianto in the nation's presidential election is likely to herald continuity for domestic policies set by outgoing President Joko Widodo, analysts said.

The continuity is also expected to extend into the foreign relations domain, particularly when it comes to bilateral ties with Singapore, they added, given the good existing relations between the two nations and Mr Prabowo’s familiarity with Singapore.

Still, there are some areas of uncertainty in the foreign policies of the next administration, some analysts suggested, noting the mixed signals put out by the former general during campaigning.

This is compounded by the uncertainty that Mr Prabowo brings, in view of his sometimes murky past as a senior military figure and his limited forays onto the global stage.

Quick count results by pollsters in Indonesia so far indicated that Mr Prabowo, 72, is well ahead of his two rivals and is on course to take over from President Jokowi, as he is known.

Exit polls in Indonesia have a good track record of fairly accurately anticipating the final outcome of elections, though the final results will not be known for some time.

On Thursday (Feb 15), Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong called Mr Jokowi to congratulate him on the smooth and successful conduct of the presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia, in a statement by Mr Lee's press secretary.

“During their tenures, Prime Minister Lee and President Jokowi strengthened the close ties between Singapore and Indonesia through the resolution of long-standing bilateral issues, and charted new areas of cooperation in sustainability, digital economy, and human capital development,” it read.

Mr Lee also called Mr Prabowo to congratulate him on his strong performance in the election.

“Both leaders discussed the excellent state of bilateral relations, and agreed on the importance of identifying new and mutually beneficial areas of cooperation,” the statement added.

LIKELY STABILITY, CONTINUITY 

Dr Irman Gumilang Lanti from Padjadjaran University in Bandung, Indonesia said that Mr Prabowo campaigned on a platform of continuing the policies of the Jokowi administration.

These policies, focused on strong economic development, made Mr Jokowi a popular figure in Indonesia, though he could not seek a further five-year term under the country's constitution.

“And this (continuity) includes foreign policies, including the relationship with Singapore,” Dr Irman said.

That Mr Prabowo received support from Mr Jokowi and picked the president’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice-presidential running mate also pointed to the likelihood of a continuity in policies, observers told TODAY.

It is also notable that polls so far indicated that the Prabowo-Gibran ticket was well ahead of their two rivals.

Although official results will not be out for some time, the indications are that Mr Prabowo has cleared the 50 per cent threshold to give him victory without the need for run-off election.

Dr Norshahril Saat, senior fellow at Singapore research centre Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, said that given the expected margin of victory, “one can expect stability in the country”.

A stable Indonesia would, in turn, bring benefit to its partners, including Singapore, the analysts said.

Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at consultancy firm Solaris Strategies Singapore, said: "(This) is important for Singapore as it is a leading investor and trading partner of Indonesia."

Dr Norshahril of Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute said that Indonesia’s foreign policies tend to be “quite consistent” across administrations, and he does not expect this to change much if Mr Prabowo takes helm.

During his two terms, Mr Jokowi has largely maintained the “free and active” foreign policies maintained by his predecessors.

He also maintained a delicate balancing act between rivals China and the United States. Indonesia has grown its trade and investment relationship with China, and boosted defence ties with the US.

Bloomberg news agency reported that as defence minister, Mr Prabowo frequently sought a middle path in the geopolitical contest between the two rival nations that he refers to as good friends — an approach that analysts said he would likely keep if he becomes president.

SINGAPORE-INDONESIA TIES

At the Sixth Singapore-Indonesia Leaders’ Retreat last March, Mr Lee noted how both sides have taken “a major step forward” to resolving long-standing issues — namely airspace, extradition and defence cooperation — and were ready to break new ground in fresh areas of cooperation.

Analysts then said that the areas of cooperation will help cement ties beyond Mr Jokowi’s second and final term.

Observers told TODAY on Thursday that the good relationship between the two nations is likely to continue, not least bolstered by Mr Prabowo being a “familiar” figure in Singapore. 

During a visit by then-Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean to Indonesia in 2018, a statement by Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs described Mr Prabowo as one of the "old friends" of Singapore.

Mr Prabowo also came to pay his last respects at the funeral of founding-Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew in 2015.

Independent political analyst Felix Tan noted how as defence minister, Mr Prabowo has “cultivated stronger bilateral defence ties” between the two nations.

He also said that last November, Mr Prabowo was conferred Singapore’s highest military award, Darjah Utama Bakti Cemerlang (Tentera).

A statement by Singapore’s Ministry of Defence said then: “Mr Prabowo was conferred the award for his significant contributions towards strengthening the close and long-standing bilateral defence relations between Indonesia and Singapore."

Mr Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at public policy advisory firm Global Counsel, said: “Given the existing strong economic links between the two countries, Prabowo’s familiarity with the Singapore establishment would mean being able to rely on well-established lines of diplomatic communication.” 

CONTINUITY NOT A GIVEN

Though likely, continuity is not set in stone for Mr Prabowo’s future administration, some analysts said, despite the support and links between him and the outgoing president, a former rival.

Mr Doug Ramage, managing director of advisory firm BowerGroupAsia Indonesia, told Reuters news agency: “The key thing here is that Prabowo's alignment with Jokowi has very much been an electoral strategy, not necessarily a governing strategy."

Stability is not a given as well, some analysts noted.

Dr Norshahril of Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute noted how Mr Jokowi managed to unite the country by co-opting Mr Prabowo — his two-time presidential elections rival — into his Cabinet as defence minister. It remains to be seen if Mr Prabowo could replicate such a move.

If Mr Prabowo’s two rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo team up, “dynamics will change again”, he added, though he does not see it affecting foreign policies in a major way.

Mr Prabowo’s record on the global stage is not spotless either, adding an element of uncertainty.

The US had previously placed a ban on Mr Prabowo, owing to allegations of human rights violations by him dating back to his time as a senior military figure.

At the Shangri-La Defence dialogue in Singapore last year, he proposed a controversial peace plan between Ukraine and Russia — without approval from Mr Jokowi’s administration.

Australian National University’s Liam Gammon said that Mr Prabowo’s persona has changed many times over the years.

“Why would you assume that this (current) one sticks?" he told Reuters. "The one thing that Prabowo brings is uncertainty."

Dr Irman, who is senior lecturer in the faculty of social and political sciences at Padjadjaran University, told TODAY that ultimately, the “granularity” of Mr Prabowo’s foreign policies is still unknown, owing to the mixed messages he delivered on campaign trails.

“On one hand, he mentioned that under his presidency, Indonesia will be friends with all nations in the world,” he said.

“On the other hand, he also uttered Sukarno-type nationalistic rhetoric on numerous occasions and never once mentioned the need to work with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations framework."

Sukarno was Indonesia's founding president whose nationalist policies and suspected ties to communist China led to his ouster by Suharto in the mid-1960s.

Dr Irman said that if implemented in policies, such an approach could “put Indonesia in a collision course with several countries, including with neighbouring countries like Singapore”.