SELANGOR — The state of Selangor has immense symbolic value for both the Barisan National (BN) and opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR).

Not only is it the richest, most industrialised and most populous state in Malaysia — it drew RM11.7 billion (S$4.8 billion) in new investments last year and RM50 billion (S$20.4 billion) in investments over the past five years — it also surrounds the administrative capital of Putrajaya and the federal territory of Kuala Lumpur.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Razak is personally helming the BN’s charge to win back the state, which was lost for the first time since independence in the 2008 elections.

To recapture Selangor, the BN needs to win over the younger urban voters. The state has the highest number of first-time voters in the whole of Malaysia, with 660, 000 voting for the first time tomorrow.

Analysts TODAY spoke to said the BN faces a tough fight, after a relatively unblemished governance report card on the opposition. The biggest issue in Selangor is water shortages in some parts of the state. While the BN has blamed the opposition for it, caretaker Mentri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim pinned the blame squarely on the state’s water operator.

In the last five years, Selangor has topped the list of Malaysian states in terms of foreign and domestic investments. The opposition administration had also grown the state’s cash reserves more than five-fold, from RM500 million to RM2.6 billion.

University of Malaya law Associate Professor Azmi Sharom said: “The sentiment in urban areas … it’s very much in opposition hands now.”

While the BN retains an iron grip on Selangor’s rural base, analysts said that the opposition has made inroads into BN’s traditional vote bank because of the blurring rural-urban divide.

Mr Najib has promised up to 20 cubic metres of free water usage for households, matching the current PR state government policy. He has also pledged a new economic zone linking Port Klang and Kota Raja to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, and promised to draw in more foreign direct investment and small and medium-sized industries to create more jobs.

The BN has also given vouchers for smartphones to young voters and RM250 cash handouts to singles earning under RM2,000 a month.

On its part, the PR has promised free education and lower car prices. It also pledged clean and affordable water to the state’s five million people. It would also allocate RM100 million to build affordable homes.

Analysts felt that the BN’s decision to select Mr Zulkifli Noordin — who had previously made disparaging remarks against Hindus — as its candidate for the Shah Alam parliamentary seat could backfire. Mr Zulkifli is up against Parti Islam SeMalaysia candidate Khalid Samad.

“What it does is it sends a message to the rest of the country that the BN and UMNO are actually supporting people who have in the past made statements which can be deemed as extremist and racist … so that sends a bad signal,” said Assoc Prof Azmi Sharom.

S Rajaratnam School of International Studies Research Fellow and Malaysia Programme Coordinator Nawab Osman added that fielding Mr Zulkifli is “going to cost BN the Indian votes” — which could prove significant in a tight contest.

Still, both analysts reiterated that many factors — including the different governance models offered by the BN and the PR — could determine the outcome of the polls.

Said Dr Nawab: “For BN, it is continuous economic growth and political stability whereas for Pakatan, it is a desire to implement a more equitable socio-economic model and a different political contract that is less determined by race and religion.”