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Malaysia's BN needs 10 years, less dominant Umno to recover, say analysts

Umno has traditionally been the dominant party in Barisan Nasional.

Umno has traditionally been the dominant party in Barisan Nasional.

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KUALA LUMPUR — Now whittled down to just four parties, Malaysia's former ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) will need another 10 years before it can recover and be a serious challenger in the national arena again, say analysts.

Part of the reforms needed is to stop Umno from being the dominant party in the coalition, said International Islamic University Malaysia's Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar.

"It is a time for self-criticism now. There are thoughts that component parties shouldn't have allowed Umno to be too dominant in the first place.

"If BN wants to survive, it has to allow renewal and reforms in the component parties. It may need to change the rules of the game in the coalition too, especially in terms of leadership structure and decisionmaking," said Dr Tunku Mohar.

The political science lecturer said the original Alliance structure gave more room for component parties to speak up. Alliance was the pre-Merdeka precursor to BN.

BN was formed in 1973 and until after the 14th General Election, had up to 14 parties in its stable. It is now left with Umno, the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and Gerakan, after smaller component parties and those in Sabah and Sarawak left the coalition following BN's shock defeat in GE14.

Umno, the coalition's lynchpin, has long called the shots, leaving the other communal-based parties, such as MCA and MIC, on the receiving end of Umno's rhetoric of "Malay supremacy" and expressions by some of its leaders of other races as "immigrants" (pendatang).

Political observers have said that recent general elections, starting with 2008, have seen more and more Malaysians rejecting BN's race-based politics in favour of the former oppositon's more inclusive front, despite some member parties also being largely dominated by a single race.

"What is important is the perception of equality at the BN's decision-making process. But BN, however, has always been dominated by Umno," Tunku Mohar said.

After the trashing at the polls, BN should consider dissolving the coalition, Universiti Malaya's Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said.

"The BN brand is now tarnished and it should be dissolved and rebranded as something new. Nevertheless, a rebranding will not work if its political culture and leadership is the same.

"It cannot be old wine in a new bottle," he said.

OTHER OPTIONS

While some quarters have floated the idea that Umno would merge with the Islamist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), Dr Tunku Mohar doesn't believe it will happen.

Some degree of co-operation is possible but outright political partnership would only result in a far-right opposition coalition. In multiracial Malaysia, a far-right model, such as PAS, has never thrived on its own.

"PAS' insistence on its brand of Islamist politics will push any merger to the extreme right," he added.

Dr Awang Azman said although some Umno and PAS leaders have met recently, he did not think a merger was on the cards.

"It won't be easy as most of the PAS and Umno grassroots don't agree with the idea. Any merger will split both the parties and further weaken their positions.

Both Dr Tunku Mohar and Dr Awang Azman also do not believe Umno needs to become a multiracial party, as being mono-ethnic is not its core problem, which is corruption.

"They lost the trust of their own members because of integrity, corruption and leadership issues due to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal and the goods and services tax (GST)," said Mr Awang Azman. THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT

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