Skip to main content

Advertisement

Advertisement

Fight against Islamic State to intensify in 2015

SINGAPORE — Efforts to combat the rising threat of the Islamic State will intensify next year as more players have joined the international coalition against the militant group, but analysts say prospects of a swift resolution are dim unless the United States-led coalition is willing to go beyond air strikes and deploy boots on the ground to meet the Islamic State head on.

Flames erupt after an air strike in October by the United States-led coalition in Kobani, Syria. The international coalition with 4,500 troops has launched more than 1,000 air strikes on Islamic State positions. Photo: AP

Flames erupt after an air strike in October by the United States-led coalition in Kobani, Syria. The international coalition with 4,500 troops has launched more than 1,000 air strikes on Islamic State positions. Photo: AP

Follow TODAY on WhatsApp

SINGAPORE — Efforts to combat the rising threat of the Islamic State will intensify next year as more players have joined the international coalition against the militant group, but analysts say prospects of a swift resolution are dim unless the United States-led coalition is willing to go beyond air strikes and deploy boots on the ground to meet the Islamic State head on.

In the meantime, despite defections and lower morale as casualties mount, the Islamic State will continue to be a concern for South-east Asia as governments shore up domestic efforts to stop jihadists from travelling to Syria and Iraq and counter Islamic State ideology.

Based on data from the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 24,000 Iraqi civilians have been injured or killed by the Islamic State this year. Initially an Al Qaeda splinter group that joined the rebellion to bring down Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Islamic State embarked on a massive territory grab in June, carving out a self-declared Caliphate from Syrian and Iraqi territory as American-trained Iraqi forces capitulated.

Since then, the Islamic State has grown into a significant fighting force. The US Central Intelligence Agency estimates that the Islamic State has up to 31,500 fighters at its disposal. Half of them are foreign jihadists hailing from more than 80 countries, showed a United Nations Security Council document obtained by The Guardian in October.

The international community promptly joined the fight against the Islamic State. A US-led international coalition with 4,500 troops from more than 60 countries has launched more than 1,000 air strikes on Islamic State positions. Singapore has pledged liaison and planning officers, a KC-135R air-to-air refuelling aircraft and an imagery analysis team that will operate from Syria’s neighbouring countries. About 50 to 60 Singaporean military personnel are involved.

These coalition efforts have halted the Islamic State advance, while providing an opening for the Iraqi militia, particularly the Kurds, to regain some territory.

A Financial Times report on Dec 17 described several challenges faced by the Islamic State on the ground, including flagging morale and desertions. The Islamic State has acted brutally to stem the desertion trend, executing more than 100 foreign fighters trying to flee Raqqa in northern Syria, its de facto capital, said the report.

“Life under the Islamic State may be fine when it is succeeding, but it will lose momentum and attractiveness when it comes under greater threat or is defeated more frequently,” said Professor Peter Sluglett, director of the Middle East Institute at National University of Singapore.

Mr James Dorsey, a senior fellow focused on the Middle East and North Africa at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said massive defections could handicap the Islamic State going forward.

“Mass defections will mean valuable information leaks about the Islamic State to the coalition and, more importantly, it shows people on the ground that there is an alternative,” he said.

The coalition is prepared to commit more resources to the fight. The US Defence Department said the government has spent at least US$424 million (S$561 million) on daily air strikes against the Islamic State.

Earlier this month, the US Congress approved a defence policy Bill that formally authorised American training for Iraqi and Syrian forces fighting Islamic State rebels. This would come out of Pentagon’s “US$64 billion for wars abroad” fund next year.

Addressing the international coalition at North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters on Dec 3, US Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated Washington’s commitment to the cause, but warned that the fight against the Islamic State could last years.

Analysts have said if the coalition wants to inflict more damage on the Islamic State, the US has to be prepared to move beyond air strikes and deploy boots on the ground.

“Mr Kerry is right that it will take years for the fight to be finished. But the problem is that the US has confined itself to air strikes and coordinating missions with the Iraqi army. It will take time for the Iraqis to become a strong fighting force on the ground,” said Mr Dorsey.

“The trouble is that there is little appetite in the US for more boots on the ground given the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, unless the Islamic State was to overwhelm the Iraqi and Kurdish forces and therefore pose a threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),” said Dr Steven Wright, associate professor for international relations and Gulf studies at Qatar University. As major hydrocarbon exporters, GCC countries play a critical role in global energy security.

Beside the attacks on Islamic State positions, domestic efforts to stop fighters from travelling to Syria and Iraq as well as countering Islamic State ideology are equally important.

Part of the appeal of the Islamic State is how it has managed to carve out its own distinct geographical boundaries. For the first time, jihadists are in possession of significant territory, allowing them to translate their vision into practice. The Islamic State’s successful land grab serves as a magnet for foreign jihadists.

A recent New York Times report highlighted how the Islamic State controls its population through psychological tactics including terrorism, religious and sectarian narratives, and economic controls given the significant oil revenue the Islamic State derives from illicit sales of petroleum.

Mr Jasminder Singh, research associate at Strategic Nexus Consultancy, which specialises in homeland security and counterterrorism issues, predicted that the Islamic State will focus next year on consolidating its territory and increasing recruitment efforts to ensure it stays in the game.

Governments have come up with tough measures to stop people from travelling to Syria and Iraq to participate in the conflict. One of the most striking examples is Australia’s Foreign Fighters Bill passed in October, which contains sweeping changes to security laws, including allowing overseas conflict zones to be declared as no-go zones.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has designated the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa province in Syria off-limits for Australian Muslims. The Sydney hostage crisis on Dec 15, where a gunman held hostages for more than 16 hours in a cafe under the auspices of an Islamic State-inspired attack, reminded the Australian government that more needs to be done. The gunmen killed two hostages and then died when the police stormed the cafe.

Nearer to home, Malaysian police foiled plans in August for a wave of bombings drawn up by 19 Islamic State-inspired militants. The group, which included professionals and two housewives, had visions of establishing a hardline Islamic Caliphate spanning Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore.

The Malaysian Insider reported last month that at least five Islamic State militants had returned to Malaysia and that the police had arrested three of them. Putrajaya is also debating a new law to combat and take action against Malaysians involved in militant activities and terrorist groups overseas, while beefing up existing anti-terrorism and militancy laws.

Singapore Foreign Minister K Shanmugam told Parliament in October: “The true fight (against the Islamic State) has to be in the arena of ideas. We have to counter the extremist ideology which is used to recruit foreigners to terrorism and fuel their violent agenda.”

But to combat Islamic State ideology, “it is not sufficient to just use government tools because people who feel persecuted don’t want to be told what to do; the execution has to be from within the community”, said Mr Singh at Strategic Nexus Consultancy.

Read more of the latest in

Advertisement

Advertisement

Stay in the know. Anytime. Anywhere.

Subscribe to get daily news updates, insights and must reads delivered straight to your inbox.

By clicking subscribe, I agree for my personal data to be used to send me TODAY newsletters, promotional offers and for research and analysis.