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Port Dickson by-election: All eyes on how Anwar will fare as voters go to the polls

PORT DICKSON (Malaysia) — After 14 days of campaigning, it is down to the home stretch as Port Dickson voters go to the polls on Saturday (Oct 12) to elect their Member of Parliament.

Mr Anwar, seen here speaking at a rally in Chuah, Port Dickson, on Friday (Oct 12) night, is expected to clinch the seat easily, but analysts say that he needs a clear margin of victory to signal that he has a strong mandate to lead the country.

Mr Anwar, seen here speaking at a rally in Chuah, Port Dickson, on Friday (Oct 12) night, is expected to clinch the seat easily, but analysts say that he needs a clear margin of victory to signal that he has a strong mandate to lead the country.

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PORT DICKSON (Malaysia) — After 14 days of campaigning, it is down to the home stretch as Port Dickson voters go to the polls on Saturday (Oct 13) to elect their Member of Parliament (MP).

While ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is expected to clinch the seat easily despite facing off six other candidates, he needs a clear margin of victory to signal that he has a strong mandate to lead the country.

Mr Adib Zalkapli, a Kuala Lumpur-based analyst with risk consultancy Vriens and Partners, told TODAY: "The majority has to be noticeably higher or at least not lower than what they obtained in (the) May (General Election)."

Mr Asrul Hadi Abdullah, an analyst with political risk consultancy BowerGroupAsia, said: "If Anwar fails to get a similar or greater majority than (former MP) Danyal Balagopal Abdullah, then the result will add more ammunition to his critics that he is not a heavyweight, leading to questions of how he can lead the country when the people of Port Dickson do not even support him."

Mr Anwar's party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), which is under the PH coalition, is "cautiously optimistic" that he will be able to improve on the majority obtained by Mr Danyal, 68, during the May 9 General Election.

Despite making his electoral debut during the national polls, Mr Danyal managed to secure 36,225 votes, almost double the 18,515 won by his closest rival from the former ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, and more than five times that garnered by a Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) candidate.

Mr Danyal's 59.1 per cent share of the votes was over 28 per cent more than the BN candidate.

PKR's communications director Fahmi Fadzil told TODAY: "We will like the majority to be comfortable and hopefully, it will be more than during the last polls, so we are hoping Anwar will get more than 28 per cent."

The Election Commission (EC) has targeted a turnout of 70 per cent and urged the 75,212 voters to come out early on Saturday to cast their ballots as rain is forecast in the afternoon.

If Mr Anwar wins, he is likely to be sworn in as Port Dickson's new MP on Monday, when Parliament reconvenes.

The by-election was set in motion after Mr Danyal vacated his seat last month for Mr Anwar, to aid his return to Parliament.

Mr Anwar has been named PH's prime minister-in-waiting but needs a seat in Parliament to legitimise his position should Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad step down for him during this term, as promised.

Besides Mr Anwar, the other candidates are former Negri Sembilan chief minister Mohd Isa Abdul Samad, PAS' Nazari Mokhtar and independents Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan, Stevie Chan, Kan Chee Yuen and Lau Seck Yan.

BN is boycotting the poll, saying that it was engineered to fulfil the political needs of an individual.

The by-election has whipped up the expectations of voters in this mixed-seat ward comprising 43 per cent Malays, 33 per cent Chinese and 22 per cent Indians, with many hoping that Mr Anwar's decision to use this seaside town as his launchpad to national politics would bring about positive changes for residents

Opinion polls show that Mr Anwar has a clear lead over the other candidates.

A poll by the Institut Darul Ehsan think tank found that support for Mr Anwar has increased from 72 per cent (from Sept 28 to 30) to 74 per cent (from Oct 8 to 9).

Still, he and PH leaders are not taking things lightly.

Since nomination day, Mr Anwar has been traversing the ward talking to voters and explaining his decision to stand.

In every rally and every function, Mr Anwar and other PH leaders have also emphasised to the people the importance of coming out to vote, rolling out various incentives to get outstation voters — believed to be about 30 per cent of the total 75,212 voters — to return for the poll.

This includes placing advertisements in major newspapers and putting out videos and posters on Mr Anwar's social media accounts.

Cognisant that Port Dickson's main economic driver is tourism, candidates have pledged a slew of ambitious proposals — including a new luxury resort, a highway connecting to the airport and even artificial reefs — to turn the seaside town into one of Malaysia's premier tourism destinations.

One advantage Mr Anwar has over his rivals is the backing of PH's grassroots machinery as well as the support of other PH leaders, with Dr Mahathir among those who have joined in the campaigning, breaking a tradition of prime ministers not campaigning in by-elections.

In stark contrast, independent candidates have turned to their own families and friends to support their campaigns due to a lack of financial resources and a near non-existent election machinery on the ground.

Analysts say that among Mr Anwar's six rivals, Mr Isa will be the one who could post some threat to the veteran politician.

This is because Mr Isa is a former senior leader from the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) and former Chief Minister of Negeri Sembilan who still commands some support, especially from the Malay community.

Port Dickson voter Yusalinar Omar, 55, said: "Isa has done a lot for us when he was the chief minister. He is personable and is a local boy. I like him a lot. By contrast, Anwar is an outsider."

Mr Isa has focused his low-key campaign mostly at Linggi and Bagan Pinang, two Malay-majority state seats in Port Dickson, where Malays make up 60 per cent and 72 per cent of the voters respectively. The ward has five state seats: Linggi, Bagan Pinang, Chuah, Lukut and Sri Tanjung.

It is the same crowd that Mr Nazari from PAS is courting.

As a result, the Malay votes may be split and this could prove to be an advantage for Mr Anwar.

Political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian from Universiti Sains Malaysia told TODAY: "The Malay voters are in a dilemma, they do not know whether to remain loyal to Isa or give their votes for a prime minister-in-waiting.

"But the advantage for Anwar is that BN is not contesting this time around, and since Isa is no longer with BN, that could make a difference."

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