JAKARTA — Indonesians voted for a new Parliament yesterday, with initial counts showing the main opposition party Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) ahead, but less convincingly than expected, suggesting that the effect of the popularity of its presidential candidate Joko “Jokowi” Widodo on the party’s chances might have been overstated. It also means that PDI-P might have to make deals with other parties to nominate its candidate for President.

In another surprise, Islamic parties looked to have picked up more support than expected, indicating a possible revival of their popularity.

Though Indonesia is home to the world’s largest Muslim population, many analysts thought Islamic parties were losing their appeal because of graft scandals and the greater popularity of more pluralist parties.

A number of exit polls and quick counts by leading pollsters yesterday consistently put PDI-P as the dominant party likely to win 18 to 20 per cent of the vote, followed by Golkar (14 to 15 per cent) and Gerindra (11 to 12 per cent).

The ruling Democratic Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB) are expected to win 9 to 10 per cent of the vote each, with the National Mandate Party (PAN) further behind at 7 per cent.

Official results will be announced next month, but the early counts are generally considered reliable indicators of winners.

Parties must win at least 25 per cent of the national vote or 20 per cent of seats in the 560-seat Parliament before they can nominate candidates for President or Vice-President. The failure to get past these thresholds will force political parties to form coalitions and the horse-trading involved has been blamed as a cause of corruption.

“Parliament is likely to be very fragmented because many parties have a relatively big share of votes and their bargaining power will be pretty much the same,” said Dr Philips Vermonte, political analyst at Jakarta-based think-tank CSIS.

“This will have a big influence on the new President because he’ll have to pay attention to the situation in Parliament and the many political players there.”

Prior to the election, the PDI-P was expected to easily win enough votes to nominate popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as its candidate in the presidential election on July 9. However, yesterday’s early vote count suggested the PDI-P may not be able to do so without forming a coalition with one or more of the 11 other parties contesting the parliamentary vote.

PDI-P officials put on a brave front yesterday. “Hopefully ... the PDI-P will be able to meet the target of above 20 per cent, so we can nominate Joko Widodo as presidential candidate,” said Ms Puan Maharani, daughter of party chief Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Mr Widodo was upbeat despite the lower-than-expected forecast. “Thank God, the people have chosen the PDI-P as the winner,” he said. “I think it’s not possible for the PDI-P to work alone. We have to cooperate with those having the same platform and the PDI-P is widely open to such a coalition.”

The country’s five Islamic-based national parties seemed to have grabbed a combined 32 per cent share of the national vote, up from 29 per cent for eight such parties contesting the 2009 election, a quick count by CSIS showed.

In the run-up to the elections, pollsters were forecasting the downfall of Indonesia’s Islamic parties.

“This confirms that 30 per cent support is a natural level for (Islamic parties) as there are still some parts of the country where they remain popular,” said Dr Douglas Ramage, a political analyst at Bower Group Asia consultancy.

The Islamic parties, such as PKB and PAN, could play influential roles as the larger political groups look to form coalitions.

“(Islamic parties) have no track record of cooperating with one another,” said Dr Todung Mulya Lubis, Chairman of the executive board of Transparency International Indonesia. “But, in terms of negotiating with other parties, to have more bargaining power, they will have to rethink that.”

Analysts attributed the PDI-P’s poorer performance to its failure to capitalise on Mr Widodo’s popularity in its campaign.

“The Jokowi effect was not seen because a third of the voters did not realise that Mr Widodo had been named the party’s presidential candidate,” said Mr Burhanuddin Muhtadi from research institute Indikator Politik Indonesia in a television interview.

Mr Yunarto Wijaya from research institute Charta Politika said this was because the party had put Ms Megawati’s family at the forefront of its campaign instead. “What a waste of Jokowo’s potential (to win votes for the PDI-P),” he added.

Mr Wijaya noted that another surprising element in the elections was the close gap between the leading parties and mid-sized ones such as the PKB and the PAN, showing that they still enjoy popular support among the grassroots. Agencies